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MacRankings January 28th 2013

January 28, 2013

Top 25:

1. Michigan (19-1) [2]
2. Kansas (18-1) [3]
3. Duke (17-2) [1]
4. Indiana (18-2) [8]
5. Syracuse (18-2) [5]
6. Arizona (17-2) [4]
7. Florida (16-2) [9]
8. Gonzaga (19-2) [11]
9. New Mexico (17-3) [12]
10. Michigan State (17-4) [14]
11. Butler (17-3) [7]
12. Miami (15-3) [15]
13. Oregon (18-2) [16]
14. Louisville (16-4) [6]
15. Wichita State (19-2) [20]
16. Ohio State (15-4) [23]
17. Cincinnati (16-4) [17]
18. Minnesota (15-5) [10]
19. Kansas State (15-4) [13]
20. Ole Miss (17-2) [25]
21. UCLA (16-5) [UR]
22. UNLV (16-4)
23. Missouri (15-4) [24]
24. Creighton (18-3) [18]
25. North Carolina State (16-4) [19]

Dropped Out:

23. VCU (16-5) [21]
25. Notre Dame (16-4) [22]

Rising:

Colorado State (16-4)
Georgetown (14-4)
Memphis (16-3)
San Diego State (16-4)
Wisconsin (14-6)

Chilling:

Connecticut (13-5)
Marquette (14-4)
Pittsburgh (17-4)

Falling:

Illinois (15-6)
Maryland (15-5)
North Carolina (13-6)
Oklahoma (13-5)
Oklahoma State (13-5)

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MacRankings: January 21st

January 21, 2013

Top 25:

1. Duke (16-1) [1]
2. Michigan (17-1) [2]
3. Kansas (16-1) [5]
4. Arizona (16-1) [6]
5. Syracuse (17-1) [7]
6. Louisville (16-2) [3]
7. Butler (16-2) [12]
8. Indiana (16-2) [4]
9. Florida (14-2) [10]
10. Minnesota (15-3) [9]
11. Gonzaga (17-2) [8]
12. New Mexico (16-2) [14]
13. Kansas State (15-2) [16]
14. Michigan State (16-3) [22]
15. Miami (13-3) [17]
16. Oregon (16-2) [UR]
17. Cincinnati (16-3) [24]
18. Creighton (17-2) [11]
19. North Carolina State (15-3) [13]
20. Wichita State (17-2) [UR]
21. VCU (16-3)
22. Notre Dame (15-3) [19]
23. Ohio State (13-4) [21]
24. Missouri (13-4) [18]
25. Ole Miss (15-2) [UR]

Dropped Out:

15. San Diego State (14-4) [15]
20. Connecticut (12-5) [20]
23. Illinois (14-5) [23]
25. UNLV (15-4) [25]

Bubble:

Georgetown (12-4)
Marquette (13-4)
Maryland (14-4)
North Carolina (12-5)
Oklahoma (12-4)
Oklahoma State (12-4)
Pittsburgh (15-4)
UCLA (14-4)
Wisconsin (13-5)
Wyoming (14-2)

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MacRankings – College Basketball Top 25

January 14, 2013

Top 25

1. Duke (15-1) [1]
2. Michigan (16-1) [2]
3. Louisville (15-1) [3]
4. Indiana (15-1) [5]
5. Kansas (14-1) [6]
6. Arizona (15-1) [4]

Comments: Nothing much changes at the top. I’d be pretty surprised and highly amused if Duke isn’t #1 when I wake up tomorrow. The remaining undefeated teams (Duke, Michigan, and Arizona) all lost, so some non-thinking voters might automatically move Louisville into the #1 spot, but that’s absurd. Considering my top 6 all have only one loss, you still have to take a look at which team has been best up to this point and Duke is still #1. The Blue Devils are #1 in RPI, #2 in strength of schedule (SoS), and boast three wins over teams with a top 5 ranking. Not only does Duke boast the better resume, but they already beat Louisville in a non-conference match up. Michigan and Louisville is a bit closer, but I’m giving the slight edge to Michigan because they’ve beat two teams currently in my top 16 (NC State and Kansas State). Finally, Arizona drops to #6 with the loss to Oregon this week.

7. Syracuse (16-1) [7]
8. Gonzaga (16-1) [9]
9. Minnesota (15-2) [8]
10. Florida (12-2) [10]
11. Creighton (16-1) [12]
12. Butler (14-2) [13]

Comments: No drastic changes here. Syracuse hasn’t really been challenged; they’ve only played two games against top 50 teams. Minnesota drops a tad after losing a close game to Indiana, but the Golden Gophers still have a top 10 resume and actually have been more impressive than Syracuse and Gonzaga. It’ll be interesting to see how high Creighton climbs in the national rankings as they could easily go undefeated in the Missouri Valley Conference.

13. North Carolina State (14-2) [15]
14. New Mexico (15-2) [16]
15. San Diego State (14-2) [17]

Comments: NC State has made a rapid climb back up my rankings. It’s easy to forget they were ranked #6 in the preseason, so pulling off the upset against Duke yesterday really isn’t all that shocking. New Mexico is still underrated nationally–they were #25 in the AP Poll and unranked in the ESPN poll respectively–but the Lobos are top 15 in both RPI and SoS and their “bad” loss was against South Dakota State (#81 in RPI). More importantly, New Mexico is 3-0 against ranked teams this year.

16. Kansas State (13-2) [22]
17. Miami (12-3) [UR]
18. Missouri (12-3) [11]
19. Notre Dame (14-2) [21]

Comments: Kansas State makes a big jump after most of my top 25 teams lost last week. KSU has played a relatively weak schedule so far (only 5 games against top 100 teams) but have performed admirably in big games so far. Miami makes a huge jump this week. The Hurricanes boast a #5 RPI ranking and now rank #1 in SoS and have 7 wins over top 100 teams, including a win this past week at North Carolina. It took me a while to appreciate what Miami has accomplished this year because of losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State, but both of those teams actually rank in the RPI top 100. Missouri drops 7 spots after a surprising loss to Ole Miss. I still think Notre Dame is the weakest team currently in my top 25, but 5 of their next 6 games are against some of the weaker teams in the Big East, so they will likely stick around a bit longer.

20. Connecticut (12-3) [UR]
21. Ohio State (13-3) [UR]
22. Michigan State (14-3) [UR]

Comments: Welcome back! All three of these teams have been in my rankings at one time this year and deserve to be back. I’ve been a big Ohio State hater so far and they had done very little to prove me wrong until they beat Michigan today, a team I was ready to give my #1 ranking come Monday.

23. Illinois (14-4) [14]
24. Cincinnati (14-3) [19]
25. UNLV (14-3) [18]

Comments: Illinois is the only four loss team in my top 25 and they’ve been quite confusing. After posting wins over Butler, Gonzaga, and beating Ohio State by 20 and looking like a legitimate top 10 team, Illinois has scuffled to a 1-3 start in the Big Ten and had back-to-back 20 point losses this past week. That’s some pretty inconsistent information. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt for now because of three very high quality wins. UNLV is hanging on by the skin of their teeth and they won’t be nationally ranked tomorrow, but this team has done well enough without Mike Moser that I think they will be a top 20 team by the end of the year.

Dropped Out:

20. Wichita State (15-2) [20]
23. Georgetown (11-3) [23]
24. Oklahoma State (11-4) [24]
25. Wyoming (13-1) [25]

Bubble Rising:

Marquette (12-3)
Oklahoma (11-3)
Ole Miss (13-2)
Oregon (14-2)
UCLA (13-3)
VCU (14-3)

Maintaining:

North Carolina (11-4)
Pittsburgh (13-4)
Temple (11-4)

Bubble Bursting:

Colorado (11-5)
Kentucky (10-5)

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Poker Players: Help Me Play These Hands

September 16, 2012

This weekend I played some big poker events and had a number of hands that gave me headaches and made me wonder what the right play was. I’m curious how my peers think I should have handled each situation. Hopefully I get some good feedback on these hands and if I don’t get much, I’m going to start tagging you fools on Facebook. When I get a number of responses, I’ll update this page with the result of the hand, my analysis, and what I think is ultimately the right play. If you don’t understand the poker lingo or abbreviations, then you probably won’t be too interested in this post anyway.

Some Background: $300 buy-in tournament. My table draw is terrible. I have two tough players to my direct left and one of them has already amassed a monstrous chip lead at the table. I pegged two players I wanted to get my chips from but they both busted out before I won a single hand. I have one super LAG at the table that I haven’t decided if he’s a good player or not and everyone else is weak tight. I’ve had minimal playable hands and the only hand I’ve shown is QQ, which I made almost nothing with due to board texture. I probably have a weak tight image at this point.

Hand #1: Last hand before break. Blinds are 100-200 and I have 8375 (~42 BB, M of ~28) and open to 600 UTG with AK. Folds around to the very LAG player in SB. He ships for 12K+. What do I do?

Hand #2: Blinds are 300-600 with a 50 ante. I have like 12K (20 BB, M of 9) and open to 1600 with AK from MP. It folds around to SB, the good player with the monster stack, and he 3! to 6500 or so, leaving himself clearly priced in against a shove. He’s been playing a lot of hands, but this is the first time I’ve seen him 3! pre. What do I do?

Hand #3: I’ve switched tables. Blinds are 600-1200 with a 100 ante. I have just over 15K (12.5 BB, M of 5.5). UTG (the good player from the last hand described… still with a massive stack) limps in, UTG+2 (solid, straight-forward) makes it 3500 to go, old guy (playing kind of loose and weird) in MP makes it 8K to go–leaving about 1.5K behind–and I’m next to act with AK. What do I do?

Hand #4: Different tournament. $500 buy-in. I’ve been relatively active, playing good positional poker and taking down pots by attacking weakness. Of my 8 opponents at the table, I think 6 of them are definitely weak players I want to tangle with, one guy seems to be playing straight forward small ball poker, and another player looks pretty LAG and seems slightly dangerous, but I did see him make a move that made me question if he really knows what’s up or if he’s just a poser. My table draw is way better than it was in the last tournament and I feel like I’m the strongest player at the table. Level is 100-200, my stack is over 11K and two of the weak players limp in front of me. I limp in LP with KJ and we see a Q82 rainbow flop five ways. Everyone checks to me on the flop and it looks like a pretty good spot to bet since I’d expect a queen to lead out and there are only gutshot straight draws available. I expect a bet of 2/3 the pot to take it down a pretty good percentage of the time. The blinds both fold, but both the limpers call. With only weak draws possible, at least one of my opponents probably has a made hand and my decision to shut it down becomes even easier when another 8 hits the board on the turn. It checks around and I’m quite happy to see a King peel off on the river and plan to value bet if it checks to me or hope to pick off a weak bet on the river. The first player bets 750 and the next one raises to 1500. I don’t have much respect for either player and the one that’s raising has been playing a bit goofy. What do I do?

Hand #5: Level is 200-400-50, I have 13K, which is 32.5 bigs and an M of about 12. The small baller opens to 875, nearly a minimum raise and one that he has made 3 times in the last orbit. It folds to me with JJ in the big blind. What do I do?

Hand #6: Level is 200-400-50 still. My stack is down to about 8200 (20.5 bigs, M of about 8). It folds around to the small blind and he raises to 1200. Again, this is a weak player, but in similar situations in the past he has completed from the SB instead of raising. One other note, I have had a rough level and my image is not that great right now. I look down at 33 in the big blind, what do I do?

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21 Jump Street (2012)

August 11, 2012

Starring: Channing Tatum, Jonah Hill, Brie Larson, Dave Franco, Ice Cube, Rob Riggle
Director: Phil Lord, Chris Miller (Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs)

Quick Thoughts: Through mid-August 21 Jump Street is still easily the funniest movie of 2012 with several laugh out loud moments, a refreshing and self-aware script, hilarious performances from Channing Tatum, Jonah Hill, Rob Riggle, and Ice Cube, and one of the all-time best surprise cameos. One of the more enjoyable and surprising films of the year.

Viewings: 2
Replay Value: Still hilarious the second time through.
Sequel Potential: It would honestly be bad business not to keep this franchise going. Update: Sequel is already being written and filming begins in September 2013.
Oscar Potential: None.
Nudity: Surprisingly… none.
Grade: 8/10 (Excellent)
RottenTomatoes Scores: Critics: 85% Audience: 86%
IMDB Rating: 7.3/10
Recommendation: As far as comedies go, this is pure gold. 21 Jump Street follows in the footsteps of 2009’s Star Trek and 2011’s Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes as surprisingly excellent remakes.

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Mac’s MLB First Half Awards

July 10, 2012

MVP

AL – Mike Trout, Angels: Since his arrival in late April, Mike Trout has been one of the top two or three most productive players in baseball. More importantly, his impact on the Angels gives him the edge over Josh Hamilton for first half MVP. On April 27th, the Angels were scuffling to a 6-14 record and sitting in the AL West basement with super slugger Albert Pujols posting a monstrous 4 RBI so far. Enter Mike Trout. Since April 28th, Trout’s season debut, the Halos have posted a 42-24 record and have climbed into the American League Wild Card lead while Pujols has rediscovered his confidence, knocking in 47 runs since Trout arrived. Not only does Trout lead the American League with a .341 average and 26 steals, but he also sits a mere 6 runs scored behind MLB-leader Ian Kinsler despite spending almost all of April in AAA. But wait, there’s more! Trout isn’t just a speedy lead off guy… he’s also blasted 12 homers in 258 ABs, a pace that would give him 30 over a full season of 650 at bats. This dude is so sick that I can’t help but talk about him in Chuck Norris-like hyperbole: “I’m going to switch my entire wardrobe to nothing but Mike Trout jerseys.”

Honorable Mention: Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones, Miguel Cabrera

NL – Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: The only player in MLB that has rivaled Mike Trout since May 1st is the dreadlocked Pirates outfielder. After inking a multiyear deal with the Bucs prior to the season, McCutchen has rewarded the normally cheap franchise with outstanding production. McCutchen leads MLB with a .362 average, is stealing bases and hitting homers at nearly a 40/40 pace, and also ranks in the top 3 in the NL in both runs scored and RBI. After a modest April, this kid’s bat has been scorching hot, raising his average from .302 and hitting all 18 of his homers since May 1st. Thanks to McCutchen’s emergence fantasy baseball’s most valuable asset in the first half and an early MVP candidate, the Pirates are not only a surprise atop the NL Central standings, but actually look like legitimate players for a playoff berth.

Honorable Mention: David Wright, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun

Cy Young

AL – Jered Weaver, Angels: The Halos righty might not be as dominant as Justin Verlander (6.8 K/9 vs 8.7 K/9), but one would be remiss to suggest Weaver hasn’t been as effective. Weaver is the only starting pitcher with at least 90 innings pitched to post an ERA under 2.00 and also leads all starters with a 0.90 WHIP. Weaver has also posted a 10-1 record for a team that has climbed its way into playoff contention. Oh, and he threw a no hitter.

Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander, Chris Sale

NL – R.A. Dickey, Mets: Who is this guy? Where did he come from? At age 37, Dickey is having an unprecedented breakout season, taking a career 4.15 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and turning those numbers into 2.40 and 0.93, while posting a career high in wins (12)… in 17 first half starts. More improbably, Dickey and his ridiculous knuckleball are striking out batters at unfathomable rate, fanning more first half batters than notable strikeout artists Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Matt Cain.

Honorable Mention: Matt Cain, James McDonald, Stephen Strasburg

Rookie Of The Year

AL – Mike Trout, Angels: No explanation needed here.

Honorable Mention: Yu Darvish, Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Cook

NL – Bryce Harper, Nationals: The most highly touted prospect since Alex Rodriguez has been Mike Trout-lite for the NL East leading Nationals. Harper has burst into the nation’s capital by flashing all five tools and posting an .826 OPS at age 19. Harper could easily score 100 runs this season despite spending April in the minors and will probably post a 30/30 season as early as 2013 if his health holds up.

Honorable Mention: Norichika Aoki, Wade Miley

Comeback Player

AL – Adam Dunn, White Sox: It’s a close call between Dunn and teammate Jake Peavy and I’d say that Peavy’s resurrection has been more valuable to his team, but Dunn has come back from depths of suckdom that few sluggers have ever reached. In 2011, Dunn posted an inexcusable .159 average and 177 strikeouts in 415 ABs while hitting a career low 11 homers. While his inability to get base hits hasn’t improved much (.208 average) and he’s on pace to shatter the all-time strikeout record, he’s at least helping his team score runs in bunches and win games by smacking 25 homers in 84 games and getting on base at a .357 clip.

Honorable Mention: Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, Joe Nathan

NL – David Wright, Mets: To put this comeback in perspective all you have to do is compare Wright’s first half numbers to his totals from all of 2011: he’s posted more hits and doubles and almost as many runs, homers, RBI, and steals in 87 less at bats. While Wright may never again approach 30/30 status like he did in 2007, it seems as if he’s become more selective at the plate, drastically increasing his average while bumping his walk rate to a career high and his strikeout rate to a career low.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Hill, Chris Capuano, Jason Heyward

Biggest Disappointment (Injured players ineligible)

AL – Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: Expecting Gonzalez to hit .338 again is probably unfair and his current .283 average isn’t too far off his career number, but the complete lack of power is quite shocking, especially in a favorable park like Fenway. Gonzo is on pace for a career low in homers–by a long shot–and could post his lowest runs scored and RBI since his breakout season in 2006 despite holding down a premium spot in Boston’s potent line-up. Most alarmingly, Gonzalez has walked at least 74 times in each of the last four seasons, but has a mere 23 free passes through 86 games this year.

NL – Tim Lincecum, Giants: For whatever reason, The Freak has been tossing beach balls on the mound and opposing hitters have been teeing off on him. With a 3-10 record, 6.42 ERA, and 1.58 WHIP through 18 starts, it’s difficult to blame his results on bad luck. While Lincecum is still striking out his fair share of batters, he’s on pace to obliterate his career highs in both hits and walks allowed. With his funky delivery and so many teams doubting his sustainability before he started his professional career, there could be some reason to be concerned for his long term productivity.

Silver Sluggers

C – A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox (.285-16-49)
Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (.350-13-46)

1B – Paul Konerko, White Sox (.329-14-49)
Joey Votto, Red (.348-14-48-5)

2B – Robinson Cano, Yankees (.313-20-51)
Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks (.300-11-40-7)

3B – Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.324-18-71)
David Wright, Mets (.351-11-59-9)

SS – Derek Jeter, Yankees (.308-7-25-7)
Ian Desmond, Nationals (.285-17-51-11)

LF – Mark Trumbo, Angels (.306-22-57)
Ryan Braun, Brewers (.306-24-61-15)

CF – Josh Hamilton, Rangers (.308-27-75-6)
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (.362-18-60-14)

RF – Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (.244-27-65)
Carlos Beltran, Cardinals (.296-20-65-8)

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The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)

July 5, 2012

Starring: Andrew Garfield, Emma Stone, Rhys Ifans, Martin Sheen, Sally Fields
Director: Marc Webb (500 Days Of Summer)

Quick Thoughts: There’s some redundancy here since we’re rebooting a franchise that only started ten years ago and the origin story portion of the film feels a little tiresome, but pretty much everything else is an improvement over the original series, especially the casting of Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone in the two lead roles. The execution of The Lizard is a bit questionable, but Rhys Ifans is solid in the human role. The best aspect of the movie was giving Peter Parker a little swag and having Spider-Man verbally abusing his opponents. As a whole, The Amazing Spider-Man is quite enjoyable and, at the very least, hopefully a springboard to even more entertaining sequels.

Viewings: 1
Replay Value: Repeat viewings should tell how good this movie really is as the original didn’t hold up nearly as well over multiple viewings.
Sequel Potential: The next one is scheduled for release in 2014 with at least one more to follow.
Oscar Potential: Might get some visual effects love but something tells me this won’t be top shelf for 2012.
Nudity: N/A
Grade: 6.5/10 (Recommended/Must See)
RottenTomatoes Scores: Critics: 72% Audience: 84%
IMDB Rating: 7.8/10
Recommendation: I think this is an improvement on the Sam Raimi films, especially the cast, and an enjoyable but not great superhero flick.

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Madagascar 3 (2012)

June 30, 2012

Starring: Ben Stiller, Chris Rock, Jada Pinkett-Smith, David Schwimmer, Sacha Baron Cohen, Bryan Cranston, Jessica Chastain, Martin Short
Director: Eric Darnell, Tom McGrath (Madagascar, Madagascar 2, Megamind)

Quick Thoughts: I skipped the first two installments in this series but was still able to jump right in with this story and felt like I already knew who these characters were. The story find the animals wishing to return to the Central Park zoo after a brief stay in Africa, but I in their attempt to return home they find themselves stuck on a train with a traveling circus and a new cast of animals to share the limelight with. Martin Short and Frances McDormand are perfectly cast in their new roles, both providing plenty of comedy.

Viewings: 1
Replay Value: Not exactly something I’d want to own and watch repeatedly, but I’ve clearly overlooked its predecessors.
Sequel Potential: These movies keep doing well enough to warrant further sequels but at some point it’s going to be difficult to to continue moving this story forward. Spin offs might be the way to go as the penguins already have their own T.V. show.
Oscar Potential: A notch below Pixar’s Brave, which means it should probably whiff on a Best Animated Feature nomination.
Nudity: N/A
Grade: 6/10 (Recommended)
RottenTomatoes Scores: Critics: 76% Audience: 81%
IMDB Rating: 7.2/10
Recommendation: A solid family film that is geared toward the kids, but still enjoyable for adults, and a pretty remarkable film for a third installment.

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Brave (2012)

June 27, 2012

Starring: Kelly MacDonald, Kevin Connolly, Emma Thompson, Julie Walters
Director: Brenda Chapman, Mark Andrews

Quick Thoughts: I found Brave to be quite enjoyable, but it’s definitely a notch below the standard we’ve come to expect from Pixar movies that aren’t called Cars. The film plays out more like a classic Disney fairy tale than the immensely creative and layered stories we’ve come to expect from the studio. There are some touching moments in the movie due to the conflict between mother and daughter and the pressure some parents put on their kids to be what they want them to be rather than letting them grow into their own destiny; and Brave actually resolves this rift in surprising fashion.

Viewings: 1
Replay Value: Good enough too warrant a second viewing but it’s not timeless like many of the other films in the Pixar library.
Sequel Potential: Merida is a strong enough character to get a sequel but they would need to go a completely different route to continue her story.
Oscar Potential: Should get a Best Animated Feature nomination but not a win.
Nudity: N/A
Grade: 6/10 (Recommended)
RottenTomatoes Scores: Critics: 76% Audience: 85%
IMDB Rating: 7.8/10
Recommendation: Brave is visually beautiful and has some charm, but the humor is almost exclusively juvenile and the story is much simpler than what we expect from a Pixar movie.

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Snow White And The Huntsman (2012)

June 26, 2012

Starring: Kristen Stewart, Chris Hemsworth, Charlize Theron
Director: Rupert Sanders

Quick Thoughts: There’s no doubt this movie is visually stunning and while I applaud its attempt at originality, this dark take on the classic Snow White fairy tale is actually rather boring. The visual effects and set pieces are impressive, but the story is weak and there’s no emotional investment in its characters. I could care little whether Snow White lives or dies and Chris Hemworth’s huntsman seems like he’s tacked on as an after thought, so when a romance develops between the two characters, it’s like “huh?” It’s possible Charlize Theron gives a quality performance, but it seems over the top and out of place here.

Viewings: 1
Replay Value: The first viewing was tough enough for me to get through.
Sequel Potential: A sequel has already been announced.
Oscar Potential: I suppose it’s possible this film could get some visual effects or costume attention.
Nudity: Well, that’s one way this movie could be improved.
Grade: 5.5/10 (Recommended/Wait For Red Box)
RottenTomatoes Scores: Critics: 49% Audience: 57%
IMDB Rating: 6.6/10
Recommendation: I was pretty bored by this movie but it wasn’t insultingly bad and I’d potentially worth seeing in theaters for the visuals. Also, general audiences seem to be enjoying it quite a bit.