The Bat Cave

Fortune $499 Promo Day 2

April 25, 2024

I went to sleep sometime after 2 AM after my Day 1 session and I was planning to be up no later than 8 AM, but my sleep was very sporadic and when my alarm went off I had no intention of getting out of bed. I still managed to get to Fortune by 10:45 and I figured it would be slower on the second day of the promo, but I didn’t get in 4/8 until 12:20 PM and I didn’t get in 20/40 until just after 4 PM.

I decided to pass on 1/3, 3/5, and 8/16 because I was playing 4/8 with my girlfriend and having a lot of fun. Plus, I was able to watch how she’s playing and give her some immediate feedback as she’s trying to learn how to play the game. I ended up winning three racks in 4/8 while waiting for my 20/40 seat.

And then I sat down in 20/40 and first hand I get dealt I raise it up with AhKx and only the big blind defends. The flop is T42 with two hearts, I bet, and the big blind check-raises me. I usually just flat here, but I decided to put pressure on him with plans to barrel any equity improvement on the turn (Q, J, heart, and pairs obv). The turn is perfection: king of diamonds. I bet and he calls. The river is an offsuit 5 and I get check-raised here. I pay it off and he somehow shows me 55. The classic “I put you on AK until a king hit and then I put you on AQ” call down. I do think his flop play is solid but that is a very optimistic turn call and it was a pretty painful start to my 20/40 session. -$220 on my first hand and hours of crushing 4/8 down the drain lol.

I didn’t get much going in this session and was down about $1200, feeling quite exhausted and wondering if I had it in me to try and mount a comeback. Fortunately, the cards started cooperating and I got back to even. My girlfriend decided to call it a session around 9:30 PM (she played for 9 hours!) and I was tired enough that I decided to book a very tiny win for the day and leave at the same time as her.

I took today off because I was planning to hang out with my dad. I had a haircut scheduled at 10 AM and a vet appointment at 3 PM, so I told him I would have to come get him and we’d be hanging out in Tacoma and he told me no lol. So I’ve just been lounging and now I’m going to see Challengers at 7 PM. I plan to be in bed by 10 PM and up by 4 AM and at Fortune by 5:30 AM. The wait is just unacceptable after 9 AM.

Two days in, I’m at 22.33 hours and +$1064. Not great. Long way to go. Definitely could be worse though.

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Fortune $499 Promo Day 1 (LIVE BLOG)

April 23, 2024

I’m off to an unexpected start in my journey this week. My thoughts of starting my day at 9 AM were mostly Fantasy but for whatever reason I seem anxious to get back in action because I woke up at 6 AM this morning and couldn’t fall back asleep so here I am walking into Fortune just after 9 AM. I can’t say I feel well rested or fresh so it could be challenging to play 12+ hours today, especially if I’m not having a good session.

All 15 tables were full by 9 AM and lists for the smaller games are already off the chart on the app. Fortunately, the 20/40 list is short. Unfortunately, the game will probably be pretty bad for most of the day. I’m guessing decent regs are going to populate the game and weaker players are going to be mostly locked out.

I am officially on the list at 9:15 AM. Let’s see how long it takes for me to get in a game. I’m currently 4th up for 20/40, 3rd up for 3/5, 9th up for 8/16, and 20+ deep for both 4/8 and 1/3. With only two 3/5 games going and no one that just got here likely to leave any time soon, I could still be waiting for quite some time.

I’m going to be blogging my progress sporadically throughout the day, so check back in every few hours or so for an update.

11:00 AM: Officially in action at 3/5 after a 1 hour and 45 minute wait. I am currently 3rd up for 20/40 and I am not excited to be playing 3/5 until I’m in. Let’s hope I can avoid disaster while I’m here.

11:27 AM: All tables are full and lists are officially off the charts:

12:00 PM: Nothing too exciting yet. Picked up QQ a couple times and won smallish pots both times. Lost a smallish pot calling a bluff on turn and picking him off again when he made second pair. Up like $30 – only $9770 to go! First up for 20/40 now.

1:30 PM: Still waiting for 20/40. Oof. Pretty good last 90 minutes. I had a pot where I got 3-bet to $165 after opening to $35 with AKo in a straddle pot. I started the hand with a little over $600, so I 4-bet to $465 and got a fold. My biggest pot was a KQ open and 5-way action to K93 rainbow. I bet $55 and only button called. Turn was 4x and I bet $115 and he called again. River paired the 9 and I checked to my opponent, he bet around $150ish and I snap-called and beat his K6. Currently up $600ish three hours in.

3:00 PM: I made it! Started fourth up for 20/40 and it only took me 4.75 hours to get in the game. Not looking forward to the waits in the days to come. I finished 3/5 +$860 and I’d say that’s a pretty great result. Brand new to 20/40 but I already won a tiny pot with KK so that’s a huge improvement over my last session in this game.

4:30 PM: Decent start to 20/40. Standard hands so far, winning with most of my best hands. Up about 1k for the day.

6:00 PM: I was swinging down for a bit but then I won a big blind vs blind pot when I had AJ vs J9 on JT84A and got multiple bets on turn. I got the same player again a few hands later with 76dd on the button and flopped a flush vs his Ad that made top pair on the river and paid off two big bets there. This game is actually much better than I was anticipating. Five of the biggest regulars either didn’t show up and passed on their seat, so that was a nice surprise. Currently up $1320 for the day. This is the kind of progress you love to see:

8:30 PM: Ah, I forgot how boring it is to try and write about limit Hold’em hands as I’m playing. It has been going well today. Very little negative turbulence so far. Hopefully I’m not jinxing it. I’m up over 2k now.

12:30 AM: Good lord I am tilted. It’s been a miserable last 4 hours. I had a steady climb all day for ten hours straight and this is how my night ends:

Very frustrating. I don’t feel like I was playing leaky or bad or anything, I just started losing every hand – running KK into AA, JJ into KK, 77 into 99 – that sort of thing. But the last pot I played I can only blame on fatigue and a total lack of awareness. Two players limp, I raise with J9cc and we go multiway to a flop of 962. I’m in seat 7 and I get called by s5 and s6. The turn pairs the 9, I bet and only s5 calls. The river is a 7 and he folds when I bet. The dealer says, “show it if you want to,” and I toss my cards in face down and say, “I wish I could show that one,” and then he pushes the pot to seat 2 and I’m like WTF IS GOING ON. Apparently s2 called me on the river. I never even knew he was in the hand! I didn’t look his direction once. I obviously had the best hand and flushed almost $500 down the toilet at the tail end of a horrendous finish to my day. UNBELIEVABLE. I cannot fucking believe I just did that.

Anyways, I finish Day 1 +$1000. Mega disappointing, but I’m 10% of the way to my goal. Back at it tomorrow by 11 AM at the latest I’d say.

FUCK!

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Marathon Poker Week: $499 High Hands @ Fortune Every 15 Minutes

April 22, 2024

This is going to be a massive week of poker for me. Fortune is giving away $373,000 in High Hand money over the next week and I plan to get more than my fair share of it. The actual promotion is $499 every 15 minutes and goes from 9 AM tomorrow until 3 AM next Tuesday morning. Absolutely wild. And I’m so here for it.

As it stands, I am currently stuck a shade under $6k for the month of April. It’s been a miserable month for me. I had a good mini-session of 3/5 at Fortune and I’ve been enjoying playing 1/3 lately, so I made the mistake of testing my never-ending streak of unbelievable bad luck in 3/5 at Palace/Aces.

Notable Hand #1: Zinky opens to $20 from MP, cutoff and button call, and I look down at KK in the small blind. I make it $135 and only the button calls. Flop is Q64 rainbow and I make a small bet of $60 and my opponent essentially snap calls. The turn pairs the 6 and I bet $150 and again the button calls almost immediately. The river is a 7 and I shove for my remaining $235. Now my opponent goes into the tank. We are about 2 minutes deep when he asks for a count. At this point, I was 70% sure I was doubling up, 15% thinking he might fold, and 15% remembering that I haven’t won a significant pot in the Aces 3/5 game in like a year and wondering how I would react if I somehow didn’t have the best hand here. Finally, this fucking piece of absolute dog shit puts in the call and turns over 77. I WAS SEEING RED. I don’t know this dude at all so I don’t know what the fuck this was about. There is no logical strategic explanation for his thought processes here, so he either did it on purpose or he’s a special kind of moron. With all the accumulated tilt from this game over the past year, I was having a hard time keeping my emotions in check. I wanted to slam this dude’s face into the table. Losing the hand as it played out was brutal enough, but the savage slow roll on top of it just couldn’t be real life. There was a list for the game, so I disappeared for about thirty minutes and I’d be lying if part of me didn’t hope I was picked up before I got back so I could leave.

Notable Hand #2: Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. I got moved to the main game and reloaded. I had a bit over $1K when this next hand came up. I opened to $20 UTG with 77, Bone called UTG1, another player called in MP, and a very nitty player tried to make it $95 on the button. Somehow he put a green chip from another establishment into the pot, however, and the raise was only to $70. I can’t say for sure if this made a difference in me calling, but it certainly made it easier. We all came along. The flop was a favorable looking A75 with two hearts. It checked to the button and he bet $60. I decided to flat for a few reasons: a) this is a very small bet and if the button doesn’t have an ace, he’s not going to put any more money into the pot and b) AA is very much in the button’s range (whereas hands like AQo are probably not) and is certainly a hand he would make a tiny bet with. I know this is a dangerous way to play this hand, but I was going to take my chances and see what happened. I got a nice surprise when one of the other players made it $260 to go, the button just called (which he probably would not do with AA), and now I made it $560 to go with what I was sure was the best hand. The other player was puzzled, but ended up folding and the button called. He might have AK here, but I was pretty sure he had an ace high flush draw and still a tiny bit concerned it could be AA. The turn was the 2 of hearts and with only $450 remaining and the off chance he had AxKh, I bet $300 and he snap put me all in and I called, saying, ” I hope it’s a flush.” He did indeed have exactly the AKhh and the river didn’t fill me up and I was down another $1000.

Nothing too crazy about that hand other than the fake $25 chip that may or may not have been the difference between me calling pre or not lol. Otherwise, it’s just a standard big spot cooler that I am never on the right side of in this game. The rest of my session didn’t go any better and I ended up losing over $2600.

I followed that nightmare session up with my worst cash game day of poker ever, losing a combined $3514 between 1/3 and 20/40 at Fortune last week.

So I have a goal for this High Hand promotion. I want to play at least 60 hours and I want to win $10,000. Is that absolutely stupid? Of course! Is it realistic? Hell no! Is it in the realm of potential outcomes? You’re damn right it is.

My plan is to play Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and TBD on Sunday or Monday or both. I’m hoping to be in a game by noon each day and the plan is to play until at least midnight. The only day I know I’m taking off for sure is Thursday. I want to be at Fortune by 10 AM most days and hopefully don’t have to wait longer than a couple hours if I do that.

There are 120 players in action if the room is full which I imagine it will be most of the time during the promo. That makes everyone’s fair share of the promotion $16.63 an hour. But I’ll be playing limit games which are not only substantially faster than 1/3 and 3/5, but also get to showdown more frequently. I’ll make a bold assumption that my fair share of the HH promo is closer to $20/hour. So if I actually put in the 60 hours, my HH expectation is somewhere around +$1200. Let’s hope to do much better than that! I don’t plan to do much detailed hand histories, but I think it would be fun to blog my progress during this promo, so check back for that.

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2023 Poker Results

April 14, 2024

Live Cash Games

I played 967 hours of live cash in 2023 – a 13% decrease from my volume in 2022. My primary game was 20/40 Limit Hold’em, with 53% of my cash game hours coming in that exact game – a massive increase over the 9.5% I played in 2022. I played 9.5% of my live cash hours in 1/3 NL, 18.5% in 2/5 or 3/5 NL, 12.2% in other stakes of LHE, and just below 6% in various mix games.

I played 74 hours of NL cash in January and booked a small loss in those games. Even though I rebounded nicely in February in only 33 hours, I only played more than 26 hours of NL cash in a single month for the rest of the year. I won almost $8k in 22 hours of a private New York City uncapped NL cash game but it admittedly played bigger than I was comfortable with and I only ended up playing twice out of the eight times the game ran while I was in the city.

Too frequently, I would show up at Palace during the week to play 3/5 and the game would be dead by like 9 PM. It started not being worth my time and I started going to Fortune instead and played 20/40 almost exclusively for the remainder of the year.

Also, this hand in March pretty much killed my spirit:

I think I was stuck at Palace for the year after that session and I never recovered, booking my first ever losing year at my most profitable casino of all-time.

Win Rates

20/40 LHE: 2.33 big bets per hour

3/5 NL: -6.58 big blinds per hour

3/5 NL (including 2/5 NL NYC game): 2.45 big blinds per hour

All Limit Hold’em: 2.1 big bets per hour

All NL: 1.78 big blinds per hour

Live Mix Games: 2.88 big bets per hour (tiny sample)

Overall Hourly: +$53.91/hour

Top 5 Sessions

+$5400 @ Private NYC game in 2/5 uncapped NL

+$3390 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

+$3100 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

+$2988 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

+$2707 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

Bottom 5 Sessions

-$2910 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

-$2760 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

-$2439 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

-$2328 @ Bellagio in 40/80 LHE

-$2286 @ Fortune in 20/40 LHE

2023 WSOP

I’m writing this in April 2024 and I played my last tourney in Vegas on July 5th of last year, so I’m not going to be able to get into much detail about each event. I wrote about a lot of it here (it wasn’t pretty) already anyway and I only played eight more bullets after that post (and I cashed none of them). It was a purely miserable WSOP for me. The only notable thing that happened in the last two weeks I was in Vegas was that I got to play with one of the most accomplished battle rappers of all-time – The Saurus – during the Colossus and we chopped it up about rap music for several hours. He was super cool and down to earth and I had a great time talking to him, but then he put me all in after I opened under the gun, I snapped him off with AJ, he showed AT, and, much like the rest of the summer, that was the last hand I played in the tournament. I also played the Main Event for the fourth time and failed to make Day 3 for the fourth time.

All in all, my 2023 WSOP was about as miserable as I’ve ever been playing poker. Altogether, I fired 23 bullets in live tourneys and managed only two min-cashes. I only added one WSOP cash to my resume (a 70th in the $1500 Limit Hold’em) and my only other cash of the summer I miraculously squeaked into the money in an $800 8-Game tourney at Aria. All in all, I lost almost $32k in live tourneys, plus an additional $1500+ going 0-4 in online tourneys on WSOP.com.

I played less than 9 hours of cash games while I was in Vegas. I had a good 20/40 mix session my first day in Vegas and then got slaughtered in 90 minutes of play in 40/80 at Bellagio. I played cash three times and rage quit twice. Just a pathetic performance overall.

I did a lot of damage to my psyche and my bankroll during this Series. I think mentally and financially the end of the 2023 WSOP is the lowest I’ve ever been in my professional poker playing career. I was seriously questioning if this was still what I wanted to do with my life and wondering whether I could even justify it financially anymore. I’ve managed to survive to this point, but I’m a long way from being in the clear and feeling truly comfortable gambling for a living.

The Fortune Streak

It was sometime around late April last year when I realized I was doing something incredible that I was completely unaware of. I had just finished my fourth straight 20/40 session of +$2000 or better and I wondered when the last time I lost in that game was. I went back through my records and saw that I had won 14 sessions in a row. My mind was blown. But little did I know, my streak was just getting started. I put together four more winning sessions and had my streak at 18 straight heading to the WSOP.

I got back to it on July 11th and went +$935, +$2988, and +$1802 in my first three sessions back. Streak at 21 straight. My next session was the cheapest win of the whole stretch; I booked a +$71 in 4.5 hours of play because the game broke at 9:30 PM. That was the first time it dawned on me that this crazy streak could come to an end simply because the game broke. That would be a really shitty way for it to end. Alas, that would be the shortest session I played during the whole streak while I was aware of it and the game breaking never ended up being a real threat to ending what I had going on. My next seven wins wouldn’t be cheap ones: I averaged +$1909 per session and brought my win streak to 29 in a row. I played one more session and booked a +$750 to bring my streak to a remarkable 30 straight wins in 20/40 at Fortune before heading back to New York City to visit my girlfriend for five weeks.

It’s kind of weird to have an epic streak going where I didn’t play for 5+ weeks not once, but TWICE while it was going on, but here we are. I returned to Fortune over a month later and won $602 over 6.5+ hours. A few days later, I booked a paltry +$181 in exactly 8 hours to bring my streak to 32 straight wins. My next session would be the longest I played while I knew the streak was going… because I was losing. I started off poorly and never recovered, finally giving up just shy of 2 AM still down a couple racks. I had got in the habit of posting about my streak on social media and people were starting to talk to me about it in public, sometimes while I was playing, and that was kind of awkward, so I was somewhat relieved when it finally ended. Also, the longer it continued, the more preposterous and unbelievable it started to feel to report the next win. I feel like I would’ve stopped believing someone else around win #15. This kind of thing just didn’t seem possible to me.

Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers.

The streak started on February 2nd and didn’t end until September 23rd. I played 32 sessions and won every single time for a total of +$43,564. That was good for a $184.50/hour wage and 4.61 BB/hour during the streak. I played 236+ hours and averaged 7.38 hours a session.

Prior to this streak, my lifetime hourly in the Fortune 20/40 game was a respectable $44.10/hour. By the end of the streak, my lifetime hourly was up to $86.24/hour.

Prior to this streak, my longest win streak in the game was 8 straight sessions. My second longest streak was four straight sessions. Since the streak ended, my longest streak is six straight wins, which I’ve done twice. My post-streak hourly has been a respectable $47.94/hour.

Needless to say, this streak happened when I needed it the most and is pretty much the only reason I didn’t have to get a day job again… yet. That hasn’t stopped me from thinking about other sources of income, but at the end of the day, my floor in 20/40 is $40+ an hour and I’m not sure what I could do for work that I enjoy while still making that kind of money.

Let’s talk about how impossible 32 straight wins is. This is going to be some rough math, but it should still illustrate just how crazy this all was. Before my streak started, I won 58% of my 20/40 sessions at Fortune. If I trim out my fluky, shorter sessions, I won at a 62% clip. All other things being equal, the likelihood that I win two sessions in a row is (.62*.62) or 38.4%. The likelihood I win three sessions in a row is (.62*.62*.62) or 23.8%. My previous longest streak was 8 straight and the likelihood of that happening is just a shade over 2%. Do you see where this is going? My streak was at 14 straight when I realized what was going on and by that point the likelihood of that was 1/10th of 1%! I don’t know exactly what .62 to the 32nd power but it’s expressed like this: 2.27265788e-7. Let’s just say it’s microscopic. It’s not just a once in a lifetime type thing, but once in many lifetimes I imagine. Just absolutely wild.

On the flip side, the longest losing streak I’ve ever had in this game is five straight and I’ve done that twice. Based on the numbers I reported earlier, all other things considered equal, the likelihood of me losing five times in a row in this game is a shade under 1%. Pretty wild that I’m twice as likely to win 8 sessions in a row than I am to lose five in a row. Numbers are fun.

Tournament Results

I fired 42 bullets and managed only six cashes the entire year. I took 2nd in the Main Event at Little Creek for just under $13K and then I cashed my next tournament at Wildhorse in April. I busted four events in a row before min-cashing the $1500 LHE at WSOP. Then I managed just one min-cash over my next 26 bullets. I finished with a -55% ROI for the year and my worst year of tournament poker ever. I did manage a 12% ROI in online events.

Updated Lifetime ROIs:

Overall: 35%
Overall (excluding WSOP Main Events): 61%
WSOP: -3%
WSOP (excluding Main Event): 40%
NLH: 74%
NLH (excluding WSOP Main Event): 160%
HORSE: 61%
Omaha 8/B: 27%
Limit Hold’em: -27%
All Other Mixed Games: -46%

Overall, it was a pretty disastrous year for me. Cash games went well, but I went way too hard at WSOP and put myself in a precarious position financially. I didn’t help myself by playing less than 1000 hours of live cash. Realistically, I should be approaching 1500 every year and not playing enough is one of my biggest leaks as a professional poker player. Also, my expenses are just way too high. Diabetes supplies cost me around $10k a year and I’m paying $300 a month on top of that for health insurance. When I look at my income, and look at my expenses, and look at my bankroll, it’s a pretty worrisome combination. I’ve already talked to Aces about getting a part-time job there, but I decided it doesn’t make much sense to pursue until after the 2024 WSOP, but don’t be surprised if you see me working there in fall of this year. Poker is still my best source of income, but I need to think about other means of earning.

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My 2023 MLB Awards

October 26, 2023

AL MVP

Top Candidates:

Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels
6.6fWAR, 6.0 bWAR, 180 wRC+, .304/.412/.654, 1.066 OPS, 184 OPS+, 102 R, 95 RBI, 44 HR, 20 SB
2.4 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR, 132 IP, 167 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 142 ERA+, 4.00 FIP, 3.04 K:BB, 11.4 K/9

Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers
6.1 fWAR, 6.9 bWAR, 169 wRC+, .327/.390/.623, 1.013 OPS, 170 OPS+, 88 R, 96 RBI, 33 HR, 42 2B

Marcus Semien, 2B, Texas Rangers
6.3 fWAR, 7.4 bWAR, 124 wRC+, .276/.348/.478, .826 OPS, 122 OPS+, 122 R, 100 RBI, 29 HR, 14 SB

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
5.9 fWAR, 5.3 bWAR, 126 wRC+, .275/.333/.485, .818 OPS, 128 OPS+, 102 R, 103 RBI, 32 HR, 37 SB

Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
4.9 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR, 140 wRC+, .284/.369/.517, .886 OPS, 142 OPS+, 97 R, 112 RBI, 29 HR, 30 SB

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
5.7 fWAR, 4.4 bWAR, 115 wRC+, .276/.319/.495, .814 OPS, 120 OPS+, 97 R, 96 RBI, 30 HR, 11 3B, 49 SB

Thoughts:

As a hitter, Ohtani led the AL in fWAR, wRC+, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and HR despite missing pretty much all of September. I think as a voter, all of that would be enough to persuade me to put him in my #1 spot. But he was also somewhere between a 2.5 to 4 WAR pitcher and was on the fringes of the Cy Young Award conversation before fatigue and ultimately the elbow injury shut him down for good. There’s been some chatter that Ohtani doesn’t deserve the MVP because he missed the last month, but I think the top alternative is Corey Seager (by a clear margin) and he missed even more games, put up slightly worse offensive numbers and wasn’t also a nearly elite starting pitcher for most of the year. I don’t think there’s any legit argument one can make against Ohtani for MVP. Some will say he shouldn’t win because the Angels weren’t good, but that has nothing to do with how good Ohtani was and shouldn’t be a factor in the MVP race.

I haven’t heard Marcus Semien’s name much when it comes to MVP chatter, but his offensive numbers (outside of the steals) are right there with Julio and Witt, while both Semien and Witt appear to be top 5 defensive players in the AL when looking at Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average, and defensive fWAR. I think Semien is probably being overlooked, but if the vote goes how I see it, then this would be Semien’s third top 3 finish in MVP in the last four full seasons. That’s an insane run that isn’t getting nearly enough attention. If he puts up another 20 WAR in his career, he’s starting to get in Hall of Fame territory and that seems pretty doable since he’s still putting up peak numbers at age 32 (he’s averaged over 7 WAR per season over his last four full seasons). I am confident I’ve never seen or read someone saying that Marcus Semien could be a viable Hall of Fame candidate, but he might end up being one of those guys like Adrian Beltre or Scott Rolen that never really seem like Hall-worthy players during their careers but seem undeniable when you look at the full body of work.

Kyle Tucker probably had the third best season of these candidates on the offensive side of the ball, but he also ranks in the bottom 15 or so in defensive WAR and that tanks his overall value a bit. I think it’s pretty close between J-Rod, Tucker, and Witt – and as a Mariners fan it’s hard to ignore that Julio was mostly disappointing for four months of the season before heating up in July and going superhuman in August – but at the end of the year, his overall numbers look a tad more impressive than the other two.

My Ballot:
1. Othani
2. Seager
3. Semien
4. Rodriguez
5. Tucker

NL MVP

Top Candidates:

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves
8.3 fWAR, 8.1 bWAR, 170 wRC+, .337/.416/.596, 1.012 OPS, 168 OPS+, 149 R, 106 RBI, 41 HR, 73 SB

Mookie Betts, OF/2B/SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
8.3 fWAR, 8.4 bWAR, 167 wRC+, .307/.408/.579, .987 OPS, 163 OPS+, 126 R, 107 RBI, 39 HR, 14 SB

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
7.9 fWAR, 6.6 bWAR, 163 wRC+, .331/.410/.567, .977 OPS, 161 OPS+, 131 R, 102 RBI, 29 HR, 23 SB, 59 2B

Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
6.7 fWAR, 7.4 bWAR, 160 wRC+, .283/.389/.604, .993 OPS, 162 OPS+, 127 R, 139 RBI, 54 HR

Juan Soto, OF, San Diego Padres
5.5 fWAR, 5.5 fWAR, 155 wRC+, .275/.410/.519, .930 OPS, 158 OPS+, 97 R, 109 RBI, 35 HR, 12 SB

Thoughts:

This was an MVP race for the ages. With a few weeks to go, I thought this was a virtual coin flip between Acuna and Betts – and I was leaning towards giving the slight edge to Betts since he has capably played three different positions for the Dodgers and Mookie Betts playing shortstop is about as cool as it gets. But at the end of the year, it’s Acuna’s name at the top of all the leaderboards. He led the NL in fWAR, wRC+, OBP, OPS, OPS+, runs, and put up the first 40/50 season in MLB history – and the first 40/60 season – and the first 40/70 season. His 149 runs scored are the most since Jeff Bagwell scored 152 in 2000 and the third most since Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947. His 106 RBI from the leadoff spot are the second most in MLB history, trailing only Mookie Betts’ 107 RBI from this same season! Both Acuna and Betts were incredible, but I think Acuna had the slightly better offensive season while creating three new power/speed clubs. It’s worth noting that all four NL MVP candidates finished with a negative defensive WAR according to Fangraphs and you won’t find any of them in the top 20 in Defensive Runs Saved or Outs Above Average either. So while Betts was the better defensive player and played three positions solidly, he wasn’t good enough to swing my vote in his direction.

Freddie Freeman is looking like a lock future Hall of Famer and he probably just had his best season ever at age 33 which means he might have a few more elite years left in the tank. It’s a shame he didn’t get to 60 doubles, but he’s still one of only two players to hit 59 doubles in the last 85+ seasons (Todd Helton in 2000 being the other).

Matt Olson had an amazing power season, leading the NL in homers, RBI, and slugging percentage. In most years, he’d be an easy pick for MVP, but I think Acuna and Betts are a clear level above him, while he’s a virtual coin flip against Freeman. The biggest argument in Olson’s favor would be his edge in power and Freeman actually had more extra base hits while also having a substantial edge in batting average and OBP.

My Ballot:
1. Acuna
2. Betts
3. Freeman
4. Olson
5. Juan Soto

AL CY YOUNG

Top Candidates:

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
7.5 bWAR, 5.2 fWAR, 2.63 ERA, 165 ERA+, 209 IP, 222 K, 3.17 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 4.63 K:BB

Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins
5.3 bWAR, 5.3 fWAR, 2.79 ERA, 154 ERA+, 184 IP, 183 K, 2.83 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.33 K:BB

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
4.9 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR, 2.83 ERA, 146 ERA+, 168.2 IP, 168 K, 3.27 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.82 K:BB

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
3.4 bWAR, 5.3 fWAR, 3.16 ERA, 134 ERA+, 185 IP, 237 K, 2.97 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 4.31 K:BB

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
3.4 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR, 3.34 ERA, 121 ERA+, 197 IP, 219 K, 3.81 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.91 K:BB

Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
3.5 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR, 3.50 ERA, 119 ERA+, 177.2 IP, 186 K, 3.01 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 7.75 K:BB

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
3.9 bWAR, 4.4 fWAR, 3.35 ERA, 120 ERA+, 190.2 IP, 172 K, 3.35 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 9.05 K:BB

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
3.1 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR, 3.45 ERA, 122 ERA+, 198 IP, 200 K, 3.50 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 3.51 K:BB

Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
3.1 bWAR, 4.5 fWAR, 3.66 ERA, 117 ERA+, 194 IP, 234 K, 3.33 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 4.88 K:BB

Thoughts:

After finishing runner-up in 2019 and 2021, plus three other top 5 finishes, Gerrit Cole will finally be winning his long-awaited first Cy Young Award and it very well could be a unanimous choice. It’s pretty hard to justify a first place vote for anyone else after Cole led the AL in bWAR, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and innings pitched – as well as a slew of other value-related stats I don’t fully understand yet like Adjusted Pitching Wins, Win Probability Added, and Base-Out Runs Saved.

Filling out the rest of the ballot will be a bit more difficult. Sonny Gray finished 2nd in bWAR, ERA, and ERA+ while leading the league in fWAR and FIP. Gausman tied with Gray for the fWAR lead while putting up dominant strikeout numbers and a sub-3.00 FIP. I think Cole has a very good chance to win unanimously, but if someone steals a first place vote, I suspect it will be one of these two guys.

Eflin and Bradish are a little short on the volume compared to the three names above, but they both struck out at least one batter an inning and kept runners off base as well as anyone else in the American League other than Cole. Bradish finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while Eflin posted a 3.50, but when you look a little deeper, you can see that Eflin had a much lower FIP and a substantially lower walk rate and I find myself more impressed by numbers that reflect what a pitcher can actually control rather than what happened.

I had Cy Young Futures for Luis Castillo and George Kirby. Both Mariners were on the fringe of the CYA convo before faltering in the second half as Cole ran away in the race, but at 50-1 that Kirby bet felt pretty close for most of the season. Kirby isn’t going to crack the top 5 for my ballot, but he would be next as he feels a clear tier above the rest of the field. He didn’t miss bats as often as some of these other guys, but he showed legendary control, easily leading the majors in K to walk ratio, and if he can find a way to limit the hits, I think a Cy Young could be in his near future.

My Ballot:
1. Cole
2. Gray
3. Gausman
4. Eflin
5. Bradish

NL CY YOUNG

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
6.0 bWAR, 4.1 fWAR, 2.25 ERA, 182 ERA+, 180 IP, 234 K, 3.44 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 2.36 K:BB

Justin Steele, Chicago Cubs
3.8 bWAR, 4.9 fWAR, 3.06 ERA, 146 ERA+, 173.1 IP, 176 K, 3.02 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 4.89 K:BB

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
4.4 bWAR, 5.2 fWAR, 3.47 ERA, 125 ERA+, 210 IP, 220 K, 3.27 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 4.68 K:BB

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
4.2 bWAR, 5.9 fWAR, 3.61 ERA, 119 ERA+, 192 IP, 212 K, 3.19 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 5.44 K:BB

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
3.4 bWAR, 5.5 fWAR, 3.81 ERA, 115 ERA+, 181.2 IP, 274 K, 2.85 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 13.6 K/9, 4.98 K:BB

Kodai Senga, New York Mets
4.5 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR, 2.98 ERA, 142 ERA+, 166.1 IP, 202 K, 3.63 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.62 K:BB

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
5.6 bWAR, 4.9 fWAR, 3.25 ERA, 130 ERA+, 216 IP, 194 K, 3.16 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 6.26 K:BB

Thoughts:

I spent more time thinking about the NL CYA than any other awards race this year – mostly because it was so impossibly close heading into the final month. When the September stretch run began, I thought the top seven candidates all had legitimate arguments for and against them. But then Blake Snell went insane in the last month of the season going 3-0 with a 0.58 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 31 innings while some of the other pitchers (notably Zac Gallen and Justin Steele) struggled.

Still, even with that separation in the final month, the two forms of WAR disagree wildly about who the best pitcher in the NL was this year. Baseball-Reference has Snell and Logan Webb as far and away the two best pitchers in the league, while FanGraphs has Zack Wheeler and Spencer Strider as the top two and Snell having the second lowest value of the bunch. So what the hell is going on here?

I think Snell is going to win the Cy Young Award. It was a very strange season. Snell got dropped in one of my fantasy leagues after going 0-4 with a 5.48 ERA in April. He had a couple rough starts in May also, but after May 19th, Snell went 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA across 23 starts. During this stretch he stranded a mind-boggling 92.4% of runners that got on base. The next best percentage over this same time period in the National League was Andrew Abbott at 79.9%. Snell also led the NL in FIP and fWAR over the last 4+ months of the season and those are the two stats when I look at his final numbers that give me the biggest pause about putting him first on the ballot. Oh, and also the fact that he led the majors in walks. However, I think when you combine leading the NL in bWAR and in ERA by a large margin and add it to the fact he was the most dominant pitcher in the NL by any metric for most of the season, I think Snell had the best pitching season in the National League. I just wouldn’t bet on him to repeat this kind of thing in 2024.

Logan Webb was quietly the most consistent pitcher in the NL, finishing in the top 5 in almost every important statistical category while leading the league in innings pitched and K to walk ratio.

I don’t know if the odds will be very juicy, but Strider is a good bet to win an NL CYA in the next few years. His 3.80 ERA will dissuade some voters, but Strider was the most dominant pitching force in the National League in 2023. He easily led the majors in strikeouts and K/9 while also leading the NL in FIP and finishing in the top 5 in WHIP. Strider is not super likely to post an ERA that high again next year.

Wheeler was consistent all year and gets a slight edge over Gallen and Steele, both of whom scuffled down the stretch. Steele finished with a lower ERA than the other two pitchers and his FIP suggests that number is legit, but Wheeler and Gallen missed more bats, kept batters off base more often, and pitched substantially more innings.

Senga is going to be a monster if he can harness his control. He was one of two qualified pitchers in the NL to finish with a sub-3.00 ERA and he flashed elite strikeout stuff.

My Ballot:
1. Snell
2. Webb
3. Strider
4. Wheeler
5. Gallen

AL ROY

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
6.3 bWAR, 4.6 fWAR, 123 wRC+, .255/.325/.489, .814 OPS, 125 OPS+, 100 R, 82 RBI, 28 HR, 10 SB

Tanner Bibee, SP, Cleveland Guardians
3.6 bWAR, 3.0 fWAR, 142 IP, 141 K, 2.98 ERA, 140 ERA+, 3.52 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.13 K:BB

Zack Gelof, 2B, Oakland Athletics
2.6 bWAR, 2.9 fWAR, 133 wRC+, .267/.337/.504, .840 OPS, 137 OPS+, 14 HR, 14 SB, 270 AB

Edouard Julien, 2B, Minnesota Twins
2.6 bWAR, 2.8 fWAR, 136 wRC+, .263/.381/.459, .839 OPS, 130 OPS+, 16 HR, 3 SB, 338 AB

Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins
2.4 bWAR, 2.4 fWAR, 155 wRC+, .309/.372/.548, .921 OPS, 150 OPS+, 15 HR, 6 SB, 217 AB

Yainer Diaz, C, Houston Astros
3.2 bWAR, 2.0 fWAR, 127 wRC+, .282/.308/.538, .846 OPS, 128 OPS+, 23 HR, 60 RBI, 355 AB

Yennier Cano, RP, Baltimore Orioles
2.5 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR, 72.2 IP, 65 K, 2.11 ERA, 196 ERA+, 2.84 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 5.00 K:BB, 8 Saves, 31 Holds

Thoughts:

I thought I had a very good shot at an AL ROY Future with my Masataka Yoshida bet but his OPS dropped 200 points in the second half and he’s not even in the mix here now, while Gunnar Henderson was elite from June on after a rough start to the season. This isn’t even a contest. Henderson should win this unanimously as most of his closest competition had over 200 less at bats and his counting stats dwarf theirs while he also put together a solid slash line and good defense over a full season.

Royce Lewis was probably the most impressive rookie in the AL this year, but with only 217 at bats, he’s not going to be a factor for the actual ROY award. Still, he flashed 35 homer potential and hit over .300 while somehow smashing a rookie record four grand slams in less than half a season. The Twins had a nice crop of rookies as Eduardo Julien had a solid rookie season and I could have easily added Matt Wallner to my list of contenders.

Yennier Cano had a monster season pitching in relief for the Baltimore Orioles and setting up Felix Bautista for most of the year before taking over closing duties for the last month or so. Cano was the most dominant rookie in the AL this year, posting an ERA+ that was 96% above average, a sub-3.00 FIP, and an ERA a touch over 2.00. I don’t know if it’s fair or not, but I tend to think a really good season from a full time hitter is more impressive than a great season from a relief pitcher.

Ballot:
1. Henderson
2. Bibee
3. Cano
4. Lewis
5. Gelof

NL ROY

Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
5.4bWAR, 6.0 fWAR, 133 wRC+, .285/.362/.506, .868 OPS, 134 OPS+, 30 2B, 10 3B, 25 HR, 116 R, 76 RBI, 54 SB

James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
3.3 bWAR, 4.4 fWAR, 118 wRC+, .248/.353/.437, .790 OPS, 112 OPS+, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 86 R, 16 SB

Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
4.3 bWAR, 3.7 fWAR, 135 wRC+, .297/.389/.542, .931 OPS, 138 OPS+, 20 HR, 60 R, 62 RBI, 20 SB, 367 AB

Matt McClain, Cincinnati Reds
3.7 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR, 128 wRC+, .290/.357/.507, .864 OPS, 129 OPS+, 16 HR, 65 R, 50 RBI, 14 SB, 365 AB

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
3.0 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR, 118 wRC+, .271/.356/.464, .820 OPS, 119 OPS+, 23 HR, 74 R, 86 RBI, 15 SB

Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets
4.5 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR, 166.1 IP, 202 K, 2.98 ERA, 142 ERA+, 3.63 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.62 K:BB

Bobby Miller, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2.1 bWAR, 2.8 fWAR, 124.1 IP, 119 K, 3.76 ERA, 116 ERA+, .3.51 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.72 K:BB

Thoughts:

Corbin Carroll should be the unanimous pick here. He’s not just a lock for the NL ROY, but he’ll also finish mid-ballot in the MVP voting after putting up a ridiculous 25/50 season as a rookie while also leading the NL in triples.

What a group of rookies the Cincinnati Reds had this year. McClain might have put up a 5+ WAR season if he played a full year. Steer played most of the year and put up solid numbers. I could have easily listed Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, or Fernando Cruz. All three had fine rookie seasons but were a noticeable tier below Senga and Miller on the mound. Noelvi Marte slashed .316/.366/.456 in a late season call-up. Finally, Elly De La Cruz probably has the most talent of the bunch and burst into the bigs flashing plus tools all around. In his first couple of weeks it looked like he was going to be an immediate superstar, but the league seemed to figure him out and while his power/speed numbers (13 homers, 35 steals) are very good, he finished 2023 with an 89 OPS+.

Nolan Jones had a very quiet, but borderline absurd rookie season for the Rockies. He was pretty close to the magical .300/.400/.500 slash line and even after adjusting for Coors Field, he put up a better OPS+ than Carroll. Jones might have joined the 30/30 club if he got a full season of at bats. He could be an absolute monster next year.

As mentioned above, Senga briefly entered the CYA race as we approached September and had an excellent rookie season. Somehow he ended up being the best pitcher in a rotation that also included future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Ballot:
1. Carroll
2. Senga
3. Jones
4. McClain
5. Outman

Posted in poker | 1 Comment »

World Series of Absolute Misery

June 18, 2023

You always know it’s possible to go on a cold stretch when it comes to tournament poker – I’ve certainly done it many times – but having it happen during the World Series of Poker when I’m playing my biggest schedule ever has been extremely brutal. I’m writing this on June 18th. I’ve played 15 bullets across 14 tournaments and I’ve managed just two min-cashes. In a nutshell, this is how it looks so far:

Both times I cashed a tournament, I busted a bigger tournament for more than I profited on the same day… so I actually haven’t had a single winning day in the month of June. I’ve only played cash games twice this month and those sessions went not well and extremely awful – not that I gave myself much of a chance. I played 3.5 hours the first session and about an hour the second one and both times the accumulated tilt of a bad Series overwhelmed me to the point where I didn’t feel like playing anymore.

I’ve made Day 2 in four WSOP mixed events, but I think I’ve only had one day since I’ve been here where I felt like I ran even close to above average and that was on Day 1 of Limit Hold’em. I had some bad levels at the end of the night in that one, but most of the day I was building a stack. That hasn’t happened in any other tournament this year. Everything else has been a struggle and any time I’ve had some momentum going, I haven’t been able to maintain it.

All my Day 2s have been absolute shit.

In Limit Hold’em, I 3-bet all in with the KQ and Pads 4-bet behind me. The flop came K83 with two diamonds and Patrick Leonard (Pads on Pads) bet the flop and turn and his opponent called both times. On the river, they both checked and I figured that meant I was tripling up, but the early position player was going for the trap trap trap line with 88 and I was somewhat surprisingly out of the tournament.

In Badugi, I didn’t bag a very big stack but I found myself in a crazy pot early on in Day 2. Middle position opened, the button called, Daniel Weinman 3-bet from the small blind, and I looked down at A53x. I decided to go with a 4-bet to see if I can get either of the dudes out behind me. It’s rare for people to fold in limit games once they’ve put in multiple bets preflop, but it can certainly happen in Badugi. For instance, if the middle position player opened with a bad queen high Badugi, he should just fold here. We are always pushing equity against the button, so we are indifferent on whether he puts more money in or not. Weinman obviously has at least a good 3-card dugi, so it’s probably a fair fight with him. Anyways, everyone calls. Weinman draws one, I draw one, the middle position player stands pat, and the button draws two. I don’t improve and we check to the pat player, he bets, and we all call. Same exact draws as the first time: one, one, pat, two. We all check to the pat player and he bets and we all call again. And then something crazy happens: Weinman draws one, I draw one, and out of nowhere for no reason at all the player that has been pat the whole time suddenly decides to draw a card. It blew my mind. I looked at Daniel Weinman and I could tell his mind was blown too. This was an amazing result. There’s a chance Weinman had a better 3-card hand than me, but there was also a good chance I had the best hand and now that this guy broke his Badugi, I might be a favorite to win this massive pot. I actually reduced to A43 on my last draw, but didn’t make a Badugi. Everyone checked to the button and he bet. Weinman folded so I torched another big bet just in case this dude was trying to steal a monster pot with a bluff. Unfortunately he made a 97 Badugi and won the pot. Before the river action there was 180k in the pot which was well more than average stack at this point. Instead of sitting on 200k+ and cruising to the money, I had 30k or so and was out shortly afterwards.

Razz was a pure nightmare. My worst limit showing of the summer so far. I couldn’t win when I had the best draw, I couldn’t win when I made a 7, I lost when I check-raised 7th with a 6, my bluffs all got picked off and the one time I made a wheel I was all in on 3rd street. Nothing but pain.

I lost all my chips in Razz hands in the $1500 8-Game as well. By the time I busted the 8-Game I was feeling like I wasn’t capable of winning a Razz hand. In fact, when I was mega short in the Aria 8-Game a few days later on the bubble, I came back from break with 4-5 hands of NL Hold’em and I was curious what the next game was going to be…

SHOCK

Somehow Razz didn’t kill me in that one. But I dwindled so low that I posted my big blind in limit Hold’em with one big blind behind on the stone bubble and had to defend Q3 offsuit vs a raise and a call. I was pretty delighted to see the 733 and that triple up helped me mincash my second tournament of the summer.

My Day 2 of the $1500 2-7 Triple Draw was more pain. I started the day with a below average stack but plenty enough to spin it up and make a run. The first hand I played, I opened 742 and the big blind defended. We both drew two. I improved to 7542 and she check-called my bet. She drew two again and I drew one. I made 97542 and this time she check-raised me. My hand is not great but since I was still drawing and she was a card behind, I thought she might check-raise worse pat hands or break ones that were slightly better, so I decided to 3-bet. If she called and pat, I could consider breaking my hand and draw to a 7. If she 4-bet, I could call and break. Fortunately, she called and broke her hand. Huge victory! She checked dark on the last draw and I snap checked behind. She turned over a 7 and had 6542 down. Unreal. She told me she broke a 96 so she had me beat and I got her to break the best hand. And my reward: losing the pot anyway. I was extremely short after that, so naturally I made a wheel after one draw when I was already all in. I got short again after I got dealt a pat 97653 vs a CO open and they ended up making an 8 on the last draw. I made an 86 on my all in hand on the second draw and had to fade a one card draw on the last draw to double, but he made a 7 and I was out in the first level of the day.

This reminds me of a key pot that I played (poorly) late in the Aria 8-Game mix. The button was short stacked and opened in 2-7 Triple Draw. I defended with 733xx, figuring I could fold if I brick the first draw and continue if I improve. I do improve to 743 on the first draw and check-call a bet. I catch a king and a jack and he’s all in for half a big bet so I call even though my hand and draw are pretty damn bad. I draw two and he draws one. I turn my cards over one by one to show him what he needs to beat: a deuce and a six! Unbelievable. I botch this hand completely and end up making #2 (76432) to knock my opponent out and win a key pot for myself… unless… he shows 7432 and rips over a 5 to make a wheel. Even when I play bad and get incredibly lucky and make the second nuts… I still can’t win.

I had a really good table draw in the $1500 NL Monster Stack and even though I was floating just below starting stack most of the day, I felt really good about my chances of accumulating chips because no one seemed capable of challenging me for the position of Table Captain. I was about 4.5 hours in when the spot I was waiting for came up. Someone limped in early position for 600, the next player made it 1600, one other player called, I defended the QJ of spades in the big blind, and the limper called also. The flop was QJ7 rainbow and I decided to donk lead 3500 since the pot was multiway. I didn’t want hands like TT or AK or AJ to check behind and if he had KK or AA, I figured I was going to get it all with this line. Sure enough, the limper calls and the preflop raiser does raise it up… to 7500. I fist-pump rip it in for 40k and high five all my friends in the group chat and then the dude snap calls and turns over QQ and I’m dead to running jacks. In retrospect, his flop raise sizing is mega sus (so small it should raise alarm bells), but my hand is way too good to ever consider folding and you never know what random, somewhat inexperienced players are capable of doing. Maybe he makes this raise size with AA or KK or AQ (but probably not). Just like that, I was out.

I was going to skip Monster Stack Day 1B because I was over it and also because I didn’t want to be trapped on the strip if I busted early due to the parade for the Golden Knights Stanley Cup win. But against my better judgment and after much badgering from my friends…

Monster Stack Day 1B I did accumulate some chips, getting my 50k up to around 80k. I ended up getting moved to a pretty tough table though through pure magic bad luck. My table broke and the seat card I was given had a player in it already. So the floor person just had me follow them and sat me at the first open seat they saw. Chaos. I somehow managed to play nearly ten hours without winning with a single pocket pair. My medium pairs (99-JJ) were all in tough preflop spots and my small and medium pairs all whiffed. I was pretty short with about 20 minutes left in the day when the hi-jack opened to 5500, the cutoff 3-bet to 15k, and I looked down at two red kings on the button. I ripped my last 30k knowing I’m always getting called. The cutoff turns over black JJ and I’m 80% to more than double up. The flop comes quite bad – three spades – the turn is another spade and I’m completely dead and my night is over (and it took me over an hour to get out of the parking garage at 1 AM anyway).

I was going to take today off, but I heard I could put money on WSOP.com with PayPal and play a $500 bracelet event. That sounded fun so I did that and I was doing okay up until late registration ended. About 100 spots off the money, this happened:

I picked up some pots without confrontation after that and then about 50 spots off the money, this happened:

And… I was out. After the tournament, I thought I’d dabble in cash for a bit and then this happened:

I’m not going to lie. I’m in a lot of pain. I sold 30-45% of myself in everything from the jump and as the Series goes on, I’ve sold more and more of myself. Despite that, June 2023 is already the worst month of my career by a long shot. I have two small cashes across what is now sixteen total bullets for a total of -$14,420. I’ve only played nine hours of cash since I’ve been here but I’ve managed to lose another $1848 doing that also. There is still plenty of time to turn things around, but I’m losing more and more willpower by the day and there’s only so much damage I’m willing to do to my bankroll before I call it quits. In the big picture, this 2 for 16 showing is completely normal, but this is the biggest schedule I’ve ever played and I’ve put a substantial portion of my bankroll at risk. You always know a bad run like this is possible, but you really hope it doesn’t happen during the most critical stretch of your poker career.

This next week I’ll be playing the $1500 HORSE on Tuesday, the $1500 Super Turbo Bounty NL on Wednesday, the $2500 Triple Draw Mix on Thursday, the $1500 Millionaire Maker on Friday, the $1500 Stud 8 on Saturday, and… the tournament I’m most excited about: the $3000 6-max Limit Hold’em on Sunday. If this next week goes poorly as well, I’ll be taking a break until the Main Event and heading to New York City for the first time in my life to visit my girlfriend because she’s out there trying to do big things for her career right now. If I do that and then don’t make a deep run in the Main, that will be it for my 2023 WSOP. I’ll go home early and lick my wounds and spend the next year getting ready to show and prove in 2024.

It can be hard to celebrate other people’s wins when you’re drowning in your own misery, but I would be a shit friend if I didn’t mention my buddy Eric Trexler (Godzilla when I used to blog regularly with nicknames) making a sick ass run to 2nd place for a $300k score in the second biggest field for a live tournament of all-time (interestingly, my friend and Team Torch member Jared took 2nd in the biggest live field of all-time). If you have a PokerGo subscription you can watch ET boss it the fuck up at the final table and I think it might even be free on YouTube. It’s a must watch. He put on an absolute show. Here are some fun videos I took while railing him:

Anyways, let’s hope I have much better things to report next time I make an update. STOP THE BLEEDING!

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, gambling for a living, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, Poker Tournaments, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em, world series of poker | 1 Comment »

2023 First Half Poker Highlights

June 6, 2023

Welp, if I don’t post this in the next hour or so then it’s probably never going to happen since my WSOP technically kicks off in 2.5 hours. I just figured I’d post something about how my 2023 has gone leading up to the World Series.

I think the most notable change for me so far this year is that I have transitioned back to Limit Hold’em. In 2022, 74% of my live cash hours were in NL and only 15% in LHE. In 2023, I’m at 42% NL and 49.5% LHE – but that split is even more drastic over the last few months with 67% of my live hours being in LHE since April 1st.

It makes sense though. NL has been going poorly and LHE has been going, uh, spectacularly. The results have certainly been part of it, but also the 3/5 games at Palace have largely dried up during the week. Sure, it still gets off the ground pretty much every day, but it gets really weak in the evening and frequently breaks long before I’m ready to quit playing for the day. This has led to me thinking I’m better off just going to Fortune and playing 20/40 there. Interestingly, when I was driving down to Vegas last Friday, Palace somehow had three 3/5 games going. That blows my mind. 3/5 is actually pretty steady on Fridays and Saturdays – and I was playing there on Fridays every week at first, but my doom switch is fully activated – I won on my first 3/5 Friday session of the year and I haven’t won again since. I’ve only played three Friday sessions at Palace since the end of January though but they have all gone miserably: -$1499, -$1356, -$1542. All told, I’m down over $5500 on Fridays at Palace this year – on what is supposed to be my best day of the week there. Granted, this is a 44.5 hour sample size we are talking about here – barely a week’s worth of full-time play – so this is all just noise, but I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t some accumulated tilt going on and I have found myself preferring to play 20/40 at Fortune on Fridays the last few months. So yes, the sample size is tiny, but when I get back from Vegas in late July, I’ll be able to say I haven’t won at Palace on a Friday in almost seven months and that sounds pretty fun and dramatic, right?

Also, this one pot I’m about to share is the difference between me being breakeven at Palace in 2023 and me being a solid winner:

Worst cash game beat of my life

I feel like things at Palace have gone poorly overall, but when I filter Fridays out of the equation, my results actually look pretty reasonable: $72/hour @ 3/5 and $20/hour @ 1/3. The problem is the 3/5 tends to be fragile on other days of the week and I really don’t want to play a ton of 1/3 but smaller games have accounted for almost half my hours when I do show up to Palace Monday through Thursday. It’s just become increasingly hard for me to walk into Palace these days. I think 1/3 would be far more tolerable if they increased the maximum buy-in to at least $500, but still, I’d much rather play 20/40.

Yes, my love of Limit Hold’em has returned. I mean, it never really left. I’ve always enjoyed playing 20/40 over playing 1/3 or 3/5 whenever I go to Fortune. I just enjoy the pace of the game so much more. Yes, NL is far more complex and mistakes from opponents are far more costly, but I just love the bang bang bang pace of playing limit games.

I knew I was having a really good year at Fortune, but I didn’t know exactly how good until I strung together four +$2k sessions in a row and lost that streak by booking a +$549 and wondered how long it had been since I actually had a losing 20/40 session. I was astonished to discover I was at 15 winning sessions in a row! I’ve played a ton of Limit Hold’em in my life and I’ve never come close to that kind of winning streak before. I was shocked. I’d guess that the absolute best streak I’ve ever gone on is probably like 9 or 10 wins in a row but certainly nothing like this. Variance is just so high in Limit Hold’em. Looking at my lifetime results and filtering out sessions of less than 5 hours, I lose about 4 out of every 10 sessions I play. That’s losing nearly half the time I show up to play so stringing together 15 consecutive wins is unheard of. I haven’t lost at Fortune in over four months! It’s crazy!

There was some luck involved here. I didn’t know this was happening so there were a couple times during the streak when the game broke after 2 or 3 hours and I happened to be winning at the time. At least one other time, I was summoned home early and happened to be winning. Since I’ve become aware of this streak, I’ve had three more wins, putting my streak at 18 wins in a row heading to WSOP. Now that I am aware of the streak, I do feel like I’d consider it still in tact if the game broke after two hours and I was losing. That would be a shitty way to “lose” it. Likewise, I don’t feel like I can quit after three hours when I’m winning just to keep the streak alive. I’d say six hours is probably the minimum number of hours I’d like to play for qualification. Also, this streak is specific to Fortune 20/40. I lost at Last Frontier in La Center earlier this month and I’ll certainly be playing some 20/40 in Vegas during the WSOP.

Overall, I’m somehow running at 3.64 big bets per hour in 20/40 at Fortune in 2023 and 4.32 big bets per hour during the streak. So yeah, kind of hard to talk myself into playing at Palace when I’ve been making almost $150 an hour at Fortune this year. It’s been awesome, but this isn’t real life. My LHE win rates always level out between 1.25 and 1.5 big bets per hour annually, so I’ll eventually come back down to earth, but I’ve also never had a streak like this before so my 2023 20/40 win rate will almost certainly be bigger than it ever has been before.

Pretty insane stuff. Note: I know it says 19 of 19 there, but one of those sessions was split up because the feeder game broke and I jumped in something else while I waited for the main game. Streak is at 18.

Pre-WSOP, tournaments have gone well for me so far. I’ve only played eight tourneys across parts of four different series that I mostly didn’t partake in. I have 3 cashes with my best one coming in the Main Event of the Little Creek series in March, finishing 2nd of 77 for a nearly $13k score, which actually cracks my top 5 of all time. I thought I was pretty much a lock to win it when I got heads up with an older woman that looked like a doppelgänger of my own mom, but she pretty much owned me heads up… by having the best hand every time. She played better than I thought she was going to, but I don’t think I lose very often if the cards are even remotely cooperative.

Anyways, that finish has me sitting on a sexy ROI of 191% for the year as I head into a WSOP that is going to drastically change that number one way or the other.

One last thing, someone posted a brutal / hilarious comment on my last music post. Here it is:

Love your blog man. But the music/movie lists are kinda brutal. Maybe you should make a second blog? A list of your top 20 most watched actors for the year?? Lol come on man. Give us that poker/life content. No one cares what you’re listening to, sorry.
Poogs

I mean… ouch. But also, message received. I don’t think it’s necessarily true that NO ONE cares about that stuff, but it is true that very few people seem to. I still think it’s fun to track for my own personal amusement though, so if you’re ever curious about my music stats and what I’m listening to, I’ve created a page I will update every month or two with that information, but the only posts I make on music from now on will either be album reviews (which I seem to be done with) or a year end write up. Check out my music stats here: Music Stats.

2023 WSOP Schedule

May 5, 2023

We are officially less than a month away from the next World Series of Poker. This is going to be by far the most important WSOP of my poker career. I’m planning on playing my biggest schedule ever and there is really no reason for me not to be in Vegas for seven weeks straight. My girlfriend is moving to New York City for 3-4 months this summer for her own work and she’s taking Kirby with her. I’ll have no one to telling me to come home and no one and no dogs at home I’m excited to get back to. No excuses. I’m really excited, but I’m going to spend this next month making sure I’m mentally prepared for what’s ahead.

That’s a daunting schedule I have down there. The thought of whiffing everything is pretty scary, but I’m here for it. Unlike in previous years, I will be trying to play a lot more no limit hold’em tournaments. I love playing mix game tourneys, but I’ve put in FAR more work on my NL hold’em game over the past few years than anything else and it’s no surprise that four of my top five all-time cashes are NL hold’em as it’s by far the most popular variant of poker and thus creates the biggest fields and prize pools. So why I’ve mostly been avoiding those events at the WSOP the past half decade is a mystery to everyone, including myself. I guess I’m just more comfortable playing limit games, but if Covid did anything positive for me, it certainly forced me to start focusing on NL hold’em and I feel like I have exponentially improved at it since 2020.

I will also be playing very few non-WSOP events. I want to give myself the best chance to win a bracelet so I’m thinking at least 80% of my volume will be in bracelet events. I only I have a handful of tourneys that aren’t at WSOP down there and almost all of them are bigger mix events. Maybe it will work out that I end up playing a bigger off site NL tourney, but what I really want to avoid is committing myself to multiple day events that aren’t WSOP.

It would be an absolute disaster if I played every event on this schedule below. I should be making deep runs in some events and missing others, but this is just every event I’m legitimately interested in while I’m down there. Events in purple are my must plays on those days if I’m not advancing in something else already. I’ll also noted some BIs in yellow highlighter because they are my biggest events of the series and I’m selling more action than normal for those particular ones. I’m sold out of the majority of my WSOP package but I may sell more of the bigger BIs if I am doing poorly. I will reach out to people I’m pretty sure want action if that ends up being the case.

Hopefully it’s a huge summer! Leggo.

2022 Year in Review – Movies

March 24, 2023

My TOP TEN Movies of 2022

Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Plus)
The Woman King (Netflix)
The Batman (HBO Max)
The Banshees of Inisherin (HBO Max)
Avatar: The Way of Water
Terrifier 2
Pearl
The Whale
Barbarian (HBO Max)

The rest of my top 25: https://boxd.it/b3zMq

Notable 2021 films I haven’t seen yet: Triangle of Sadness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, RRR, After Yang, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Babylon, Broker, Armageddon Time, Women Talking, Turning Red, Crimes of the Future, Fresh, Lightyear, Resurrection, EO

My TOP FIVE Documentaries/Docu-Series of 2022

Uh. I don’t think I watched a single 2022 documentary. Yikes.

Notable 2021 Documentaries I haven’t seen: All of them

2022 Movie Stats

Films watched: 104 (considerably down from 244 in 2021)

Average per month: 8.7

Average per week: 2

Most movies watched in one week: 9

Movies I watched twice: The Batman, Terrifier 2, Scream (2022), Halloween Ends, A Star is Born (2018), Top Gun: Maverick

Most watched genres: Drama (40 films), Horror (32), Thriller (28), Comedy (21), Mystery (17)

2021 releases: 46.2% Older: 53.8%

First-time watches: 74% Re-watches: 26%

10/10 Ratings: Whiplash

2022 – Most Watched Actors:

5 films: Courtney Cox, David Arquette, Roger Jackson, Neve Campbell (all Scream)

4 films: Liev Schreiber (Scream), Jamie Lee Curtis (Halloween), Bradley Cooper (random)

3 films: Christoph Waltz, John Turturro, Kyle Richards, Nick Castle, Ashley Laurence, Willem Dafoe, Peter Sarsgaard, Jamie Kennedy, Doug Bradley, Cate Blanchett, Jenny Slate, Naomie Harris, Jeffrey Wright

2022 – Most Watched Directors:

4 films: Wes Craven

3 films: David Gordon Green

2 films: Sam Levinson, Jaume Collet-Serra, Tobe Hooper, Baz Luhrmann, Guillermo del Toro, Ti West

All-Time – Most Watched Actors:

Samuel L. Jackson (44 films) [1]
Tom Hanks (34) [4]
Brad Pitt (34) [2]
Robert De Niro (33) [3]
Matt Damon (32) [5]
John Goodman (31) [t-6]
Morgan Freeman (29) [t-6]
Bruce Willis (29) [8]
Willem Dafoe (28) [t-16]
Woody Harrelson (28) [t-10]
Jonah Hill (28) [t-10]
Jack Black (28) [t-10]
J.K. Simmons (28) [t-10]
Bill Murray (26) [t-19]
Johnny Depp (26) [9]
Tom Cruise (26) [t-10]
Philip Seymour Hoffman (25) [t-19]
Ben Affleck (25) [t-16]
Jon Favreau (25) [unranked]
Scarlett Johansson (25) [unranked]

Dropped Out: Robert Downey Jr., Arnold Schwarzenegger

Notes: The biggest changes in these rankings happened because Letterboxd removed appearances in documentaries from actors filmographies, so a number of actors on this list lost a movie or two from their stats. Otherwise, I generally don’t focus on any one actor’s filmography so any movement here in the future will probably be pretty random.

All-Time – Most Watched Directors:

Steve Spielberg (21 films) [previously ranked 1]
Martin Scorsese (20) [2]
Ridley Scott (16) [3]
Tim Burton (14) [4]
Sam Raimi (13) [5]
Ron Howard (12) [6]
Quentin Tarantino (12) [7]
Joel Coen (12) [11]
Ivan Reitman (11) [8]
David Fincher (11) [8]
Christopher Nolan (11) [8]
Steven Soderbergh (10) [13]
Michael Bay (10) [12]
Robert Rodriguez (10) [12]
Robert Zemeckis (10) [22]
Jon Turteltaub (9) [15]
Stephen Herek (9) [15]
Wes Craven (9) [15]
Joel Schumacher (9) [unranked]
Peter Farrelly (9) [15]
Jay Roach (9) [15]
James Mangold (9) [15]
Richard Donner (9) [15]

Notes: I didn’t watch more than two new films from any director last year and none of them are on this list.

2022 Best Feature Films: My top 25 of 2022 through March 2023
2021 Best Feature Films: My top 25 of 2021 through March 2023
2020 Best Feature Films: My top 25 of 2020 through March 2023
Focused Watchlist: A list of 30+ movies that are at the top of my watchlist with a breakdown of how I formulate my picks

I also went crazy and made a best films of the year list for every year from 2020 to 1982, the year I was born. I ranked 25 films for 2000 and later and 10 films for 1999 to 1982. I started fizzling out on my lists in the early 90s as I just haven’t seen most of the important films from those early years when I was a kid. I have all the lists on my blog here. Enjoy!

Posted in movie reviews, TV Shows | Tagged apple tv, best movies of 2022, everything everywhere all at once, hulu, letterboxd, marvel, movie reviews, movies, netflix, the woman king, top gun maverick | Leave a Comment »

2022 Year In Review – Music Edition

February 21, 2023

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Kendrick Lamar – Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers

Top 10 Albums of 2022 (in alphabetical order)

1. Kendrick Lamar – Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers (Rap)
2. JID – The Forever Story (Rap)
3. Saba – Few Good Things (Rap)
4. Conway the Machine – God Don’t Make Mistakes (Rap)
5. Black Thought & Danger Mouse – Cheat Codes (Rap)
6. Don Michael Jr – This is not music (Rap)
7. Pusha T – It’s Almost Dry (Rap)
8. Nas – King’s Disease III (Rap)
9. Denzel Curry – Melt My Eyez See Your Future (Rap)
10. SZA – SOS (R&B / Pop / Soul)

Honorable Mentions (in alphabetical order)

38 Spesh – Beyond Belief (Rap)
Big K.R.I.T. – Digital Roses Don’t Die (Rap)
Cal Scruby – CASINO (Rap)
Che Noir – Food For Thought (Rap)
Cormega – The Realness II (Rap)
Freddie Gibbs – $oul $old $eparately (Rap)
Joey Bada$$ – 2000 (Rap)
Little Simz – NO THANK YOU (Rap)
Lupe Fiasco – Drill Music in Zion (Rap)
Metro Boomin – HEROES & VILLAINS (Rap)
Ransom – No Rest For The Wicked (Rap)
Vince Staples – RAMONA PARK BROKE MY HEART (Rap)
Taylor Swift – Midnights (3am Edition) (Pop)
Toby Ganger – Free Machine (Rap / Pop)
The Weeknd – Dawn FM (Pop)
Westside Boogie – MORE BLACK SUPERHEROES (Rap)

Top 25 Most Played Albums of 2022

Kendrick Lamar – Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers
Saba – Few Good Things
JID – The Forever Story
Denzel Curry – Melt My Eyez See Your Future
Big K.R.I.T. – Digital Roses Don’t Die
The Weeknd – Dawn FM
Taylor Swift – Midnights (3am Edition)
Vince Staples – RAMONA PARK BROKE MY HEART
SZA – SOS
EARTHGANG – GHETTO GODS
Westside Boogie – MORE BLACK SUPERHEROES
Kanye West – 808s & Heartbreak
Nas – King’s Disease III
Sir – Chasing Summer
Che Noir – Food For Thought
Joey Bada$$ – 2000
Little Simz – Sometimes I Might Be Introvert
Don Michael Jr – This is not music.
Benny the Butcher – Tana Talk 4
Conway the Machine – God Don’t Make Mistakes
FKA twigs – CAPRISONGS
Cordae – From a Birds Eye View
Ransom – No Rest For The Wicked
Logic – Vinyl Days
Future – I NEVER LIKED YOU

The 50 Most Played Artists of 2022

Kendrick Lamar
Mariah Carey
Nas
Kanye West
Che Noir
Saba
Denzel Curry
The Weeknd
JID
Big K.R.I.T.
Conway the Machine
Ransom
Taylor Swift
SZA
Vince Staples
The Roots
Sir
Westside Boogie
EARTHGANG
Joey Bada$$
Lil Wayne
Little Simz
Benny the Butcher
Cordae
Don Michael Jr
Dvsn
James Blake
Pusha T
FKA twigs
Adele
Frank Ocean
Logic
Ludacris
Brent Faiyaz
Future
Eminem
Black Thought
Marian Hill
38 Spesh
Westside Gunn
Elzhi
KXNG Crooked & Joel Ortiz
Musiq Soulchild
Boldy James
Cormega
Rome Streetz
Russ
Freddie Gibbs
Frankie Cosmos
Lupe Fiasco

Top 50 Most Played Artists of All-Time (since like late summer 2020) [last year’s ranking in brackets]

Nas [3]
Kendrick Lamar [44]
Kanye West [7]
Benny the Bucher [2]
Eminem [1]
Mariah Carey [unranked]
Conway the Machine [5]
Black Thought / The Roots [12]
JID / Spillage Village [unranked]
Che Noir [14]
J. Cole [4]
Lil Wayne [6]
Earthgang / Spillage Village [27]
The Weeknd [42]
Big K.R.I.T. [36]
Mc Eiht [8]
Ransom [32]
Boldy James [15]
Westside Gunn [18]
Vince Staples [40]
Toby Ganger [17]
38 Spesh [26]
Scarface [9]
SZA [unranked]
Outkast / Big Boi [22]
Isaiah Rashad [10]
Denzel Curry [unranked]
Saba [unranked]
DMX [11]
Drake [43]
Elzhi [38]
Taylor Swift [unranked]
Logic [unranked]
Sa-Roc [13]
Lana Del Rey [16]
Kool G Rap [20]
Little Simz [unranked]
Adele [unranked]
Amine [21]
Freddie Gibbs [49]
Dave [19]
Cordae [unranked]
Westside Boogie [unranked]
Mac Miller [28]
Jadakiss / The Lox [23]
Jessie Ware [37]
MF Doom [25]
Dua Lipa [24]
Future [unranked]
Joey Bada$$ [unranked]

Dropped Out: Dueling Experts / Recognize Ali [29], Ty Dolla $ign [30], The Notorious B.I.G. [31], Tyrone’s Jacket [33], KOTA the Friend [34], Berner [35], Busta Rhymes [39], Kid Cudi [41], Pop Smoke [45], Blu [46], Flip Huston [47], Mach-Hommy [48], and Brother Ali [50]

Bangerz Playlist Additions – Follow me on Apple Music @DarkKnight1717 to add my playlists
2020 Bangers Playlist
2021 Bangers Playlist

Posted in album reviews, hip-hop, music | Tagged 2022 best albums, 2022 music, hip hop, music, rap | 2 Comments »