Posts Tagged ‘deep stack poker’

h1

Crucial Poker Hand Question

January 31, 2010

Poker experts, what do you do here? Please leave a comment below with your thoughts.

Live deep stack tournament. Blinds are 300-600, I have $14,200 and open the pot to $1500 in mid/late position with As7s. It folds to the SB, who calls. BB folds. HU to T76, two spade flop. He checks to me, I bet $2500, and he shoves for $7400 more. My read on opponent is that he’s pretty nitty, but capable of shoving hands like AT, QQ, JJ here… maybe even a big spade draw.

If I call and win I’ll have $26,200, which would be a top 5 stack in the tournament with 35ish remaining.

If I fold, I’ll have $10,200 for an M of 11.33.

If I call and lose, I’ll have $2800 left and will have to shove the first decent hand I get dealt before the blinds go through me again.

I’m getting a little over 2 to 1 to call and based on my read, I think I’m a favorite over about 30-40% of his range here.

What do you do?