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Marathon Monday – 1/7/18 (Live Blog)

January 8, 2018

11:50 AM: Struggled to wake up this morning. Missed yoga. Skipped meditation. Showed up thirty minutes late for $15/$30. I wasn’t even sure it would go today. There were four names on the list when I left last night. But I received texts asking where I was so I headed on in and four players were sitting around the table not playing.

Staring lineup consists of Chief Wiggins and Radio Mike and three other Palace regs, one of which never plays very long.

Pretty great start. I’ve VPIP’d four hands and lost all of them, including this gem: I open UTG with ATcc and only the big blind defends. Flop is KJ4 with two clubs and I double barrel and get check-raised unimproved on the turn. I call, whiff, fold, and the big blind kindly shows me J4o. Solid defend.

12:16 PM: Four players limp, I limp A3dd on the button, blinds call. Flop 876ddd. Checks to second to last limper and he bets, fold, I just call. I would raise here a lot but I have four players yet to act and I think calling makes me more than isolating usually. I do pick up two callers and the turn is 2d. Checks to me and I bet. Only the flop bettor calls. He ends up having K5dd. Brutal turn.

I raise one limper from cutoff with KQo. Four ways to K97 flop. Chief Wiggum donks from the big blind, folds to me, and I raise. He calls and check-calls the turn before donking a 9 on the river. Pretty weird for him to lead flop with a 9, so I’m tempted to raise but I land on call and he shows 98cc. Okay.

More fun: two limpers, I raise QQ on the button. Flop is 998 and both limpers call. Turn is a 6 and only one of the calls. River is a king, I bet and he calls with… KJo.

At least the game is good.

Trying to give off a tilty vibe:

12:44 PM: Full game now. The player to my right’s breath is launching an attack on my nostrils so ferocious I’m considering the rare seat change that has no strategic purpose – except maybe tilt reduction?

12:50 PM: One limper, button raises, I defend 22. Three ways to T62 with two clubs; I check-raise and call a 3-bet. Turn is an ace and I check-raise again. He calls. River pairs the ace, he calls, and shows KK. Pretty lucky to get a check-raise in on this turn, which makes me wonder if I’m taking the optimal flop line. I think it’s fine but I should at least consider leading this turn since it seems like he has an overpair most of the time. His flush draws are usually to the nuts though, so I dunno.

1:05 PM: Battling with s7 today. He had the J4o, KJ and KK earlier. He opens HJ, I 3-bet AA on the button, and Chief Wiggum caps from the big. Flop is Q53 and they both check to me and call. Turn pairs the 5 or 3 and the action is the same. River is a 6 and now the s7 donks??? Comical. I mean it looks like 66 to me and his lead is hilarious because I’m obviously betting the river most of the time on this run out (my entire range – not this specific hand, which I’m always betting). I call and he shows 66.

Very next hand he opens in the lo-jack and now that I’ve seen he’s opening medium pairs I’m 3-betting KQo here. Chief Wiggum caps from the small blind and I say, “didn’t we just play this hand?” Flop is KQ3 and for the second hand in a row Chief Wiggum caps out of position and checks the flop. You don’t see that everyday. This time the board runs out KQ3Q and s7 check-calls me down with AK.

1:49 PM: Radio Mike opens UTG, Wiggum cold calls next to act, someone else calls and I defend A4ss from the big. Flop is A43 two clubs and I check-raise a bet and call from Radio Mike and Chief Wiggum. Turn is a 5 and they both call again. River is an 8. I bet, Mike folds, and Wiggum calls with… 55. I guess losing in weird and unexpected ways is the theme today.

3:19 PM: Radio Mike opens UTG, one or two call and I defend J9o. Flop is AT7 and I peel with one other player in. Turn is a queen giving me additional straight outs. Mike bets, Wiggum calls, and I call, planning to lead kings and check-raise 8s. River is an 8! I check-raise and Mike pays it off.

4:05 PM: Nothing too exciting to report. The game is kind of dull at the moment, with two players sitting out, and more chopping than normal – like three in a row as I’m typing this. Players have been filtering in and out of the game and we haven’t really had a 9-handed game for a few hours probably.

I’m floating around even at the moment. We are recently joined by a spazzy Palace reg I will call Taz because he reminds me of the Looney Toons character both in demeanor and in body shape.

4:50 PM: Multiple limps, Radio Mike raises cutoff, I 3-bet AK on the button and six of us see a JTx rainbow flop. It checks to Mike and he donks. I opt to raise since I’d rather clear some players out and calling really telegraphs my hand – also Mike is less likely to 3-bet than most players. Three players cold call and Mike calls. Sheesh. Turn is a king which is good because it gives me top pair but it improves a lot of other hands and I will have to bet-call if I get raised. Only two players call. I feel like my hand is good. But the river is an ace and it goes lead and call in front of me. I fold and they chop it up with QJo and Mike’s QThh.

5:05 PM: JJ holds in a button straddle pot and I believe I have sugar for the first time today.

6:08 PM: Back to a full game. Radio Mike and Taz still in the lineup. One of the bigger action Palace regs is also in the game and a 4/8 player that also writes a blog (link later – AJ’s Blog) is taking a shot in this game. It will be interesting to see if we clash and write about the same hands.

6:33 PM: Action Bronson – my name for the active Palace reg I mentioned earlier – straddles. I didn’t play or pay attention to this hand but at showdown Action is scooping a big pot with J3o after making a full house.

He says to Radio Mike: “You see that, Mike? I straddled and won a big pot!”

Mike says, “Oh wow, I missed it.”

I say, “Look at everyone’s face and guess who he beat,” as his opponent is sitting there with steam coming off his head (oh stop – some people deserve a little needling).

7:08 PM: Fun sequence of hands:

Hand 1 – I post my big blind coming back from a break. Five players in before my action and I decide to check AJo. Flop is AQJ rainbow. I lead out, the guy that’s been in s7 all day raises me, heads up now, I 3-bet, and he calls. I’m happy about that. I think he would cap the flop with KT and since he limped in he never has sets and probably not AQ. Turn is an 8. I bet and he calls. River is a ten, which seems bad, but I think he has QJ exactly and I don’t think he ever has a king and probably doesn’t have A9. I bet, he calls, and my hand is good.

Hand 2 – Two hands later on the button, I open with QTo and the big blind 3-bets me. I call. Flop is QJ8. He bets, I raise and he calls. Turn pairs the jack and he’s telegraphing a check-call, but my Spidey senses are tingling. I check back. River is a ten. We both check again and he wins with AA.

Hand 3 – A few orbits later, but happened as I was typing this. Two limpers, small calls, and I raise JJ in the big. Four of us see a 765dd flop. I lead, new player calls, Action Bronson raises, fellow blogger in the small calls two cold, I 3-bet (Jd in my hand) and everyone calls. Turn is a 3. Pretty bad. I decide my best line is bet-fold, so I fire into the field and no one folds, but no one raises. The river pairs the 3 and I think for a bit and determine my hand is good. I bet, two folds, the blogger calls, and I win the pot.

Reading good.

8:47 PM: Player announces he’s going to raise every hand now and does so UTG, folds to me and I 3-bet QQ, next player caps and it’s three of us to the Q64 flop with two hearts. Bets go in. 8h on turn and UTG still leads. I still raise. He calls. River 3h, he checks, I check and announce set of queens and he rolls A9o with the ace of hearts.

9:28 PM: Not much movement in the game or with my chips for a while. Action Bronson left after the NCAA championship game and was replaced by one of the most solid regs at Palace. Not ideal. We have managed to lock Peter out of the game for about two hours now which is pretty cool. He’s next up though.

I am currently up about $140. Radio Mike is up over $1500 hitting basically everything and sucking out like it’s his job. In fact, Radio Mike is running so pure that he’s completely tuned out of the game and timing out basically every time it’s his turn to act while he strolls Twitter and reads messages on his phone. Not a single care in the world. He’s won pots he didn’t even know he was in.

10:11 PM: Pay-Off Pete has made it into the game!

Pretty inactive on my part. I opened AA from the button and won a showdown. I defended my big with 22 heads up, flopped a set on an ace high board, whiffed my check-raise on the flop and got called on the two big bet streets by JJ.

10:20PM: Doesn’t take long for Peter and I to clash. He buys the button to come in and then on his button I open UTG with 88. Taz and another player cold call and Peter 3-bets. We all call. Flop is QT2 rainbow. Checks to Peter, he bets and I decide to peel getting 18-1. The other two call also and I bink my set on the turn. I check-raise, Taz cold calls, and Peter 3-bets. Really? I call down and he shows TT.

10:35 PM: I come back from a break and post in the cutoff. I’m still getting situated and the dealer prompts me and I ask “did it fold to me?” He says, “yes.” And I respond “then I’m probably going to be raising.” I give my cards a courtesy look, see 96o, and raise it up. The button cold calls and Peter defends. Flop is KQ5 and the button calls my flop bet. He’s been pretty sticky today so I’m surprised to see my double barrel on the 8 turn get the job done.

11:28 PM: Peter waits two hours to get into the game and an hour later we are five handed and it’s not a good five. I have flopped sets twice in the last 20 minutes and got no action. I will be leaving shortly.

But I’m giving action! Folds to SB and he raises. I defend T8ss. Flop is Js7s4 and we are in Overs. He bets, I raise, he raises. I estimate my fold equity at 0% so I just call. Whiff turn and call again. Whiff river and fold. Blah.

11:57 PM: Quit the $15/$30 game and finished -$324. There is a $3/$6 game going with some loud and rambunctious players and I decided to convert some chips to white and sit down in it with my $1676. I thought it would be hilarious to sit down with a massive amount of chips and play super serious. I couldn’t stomach a full game but it is 6-handed with me.

12:03 AM: Everybody limps in and I raise with A6ss for the big blind. Flop is Q87sss. I don’t win. KQ way too strong.

12:14 AM: One of the players just noticed that all the chips under my top rack are red and green and says “damn, he has money we can’t even fathom!” 😂

12:23 AM: Drunk kid limps on the button, scared money (I know this because I floored here for over a year) raises in the small blind and I 3-bet AK. They both call and then call me down on QJT73. Small blind has AA. 😂. Ruining people’s nights now.

12:34 AM: Not gonna lie. I broke the game. One of the players wanted to have raising wars with me but I always had something and he never had anything and I busted him and the game crumbled beneath my $45 win.

1:20 AM I was curious when the last time I even played a hand of $3/$6 was and discovered that I played zero seconds of $3/$6 in 2017, but I did used to prefer sitting in $3/$6 games in 2016 while I was waiting for a seat in something else as opposed to sitting around doing nothing. But then I lost 11 times in a row. My longest “session” in that span was 31 minutes. Most of them were 15 minutes or less. I would usually post my blinds a couple of times without playing a hand and move on. I decided it was a better use of my time to do literally anything else. Especially since the wait was never very long. I enjoy warming up in $4/$8 LHE and $1/$3 NL though.

Not much to say about the $15/$30 session. I have run really mediocre in that game so far. The competition is not necessarily stiffer at the higher stakes. The games have been very good, but my results have been really ho hum. I am running at $29.27/hour overall but that’s inflated because I hit a $2300 jackpot while playing $15/$30. Take that away and my win rate has been $6.09/hour over my first 100 hours of Palace $15/$30. Yuck!

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, gambling for a living, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em | 4 Comments »

Key Pots From Last Week

January 4, 2018

Here’s some of the more interesting pots I played over the last week in various sessions. I was going to list some PLO hands from last night, but this was getting long enough already, so maybe I’ll post those hands tomorrow.

$8/$16 LHE @ Palace

I limp along in a multiway pot from the cutoff with 64dd. The flop comes down 852 all diamonds, giving me a flush with a double gut shot straight flush draw. The small blind leads out, I raise, and the small blind 3-bets. At least three of us see the turn, which is a blank. The small blind bets, there’s a call, I raise, and they both call. The river is the 9d and we all check. Small blind has Q7dd and the middle player has KdTx and I just quietly fold my hand face down into the muck.

Session Result: -$118 in 9+ hours (ended up deciding not to keep notes)

$1/$3 NL @ Fortune

Three players limp in, I make it $16 with AK and wind up getting called in five spots. Fortunately, the flop is relatively favorable, coming down AKJ rainbow. One of the limpers donks $50 into me, one player folds, and it’s up to me. I don’t know any of these players. I have no clue what a donk bet from this guy means. My default assumption is that I have the best hand and I don’t want anyone else to see the turn for $50 and this guy has $300 in front of him that I don’t mind getting in the middle. So I make a commitment raise to $140 and it folds back to him. He winds up taking his sweet time thinking it over but it looks like he’s acting and I’m sitting there like prepare yourself to react calmly if this asshole is putting on this show holding the nuts when it’s obvious that I’m never folding. He actually mutters “if you got me you got me” before putting his whole stack in and I snap call. The turn pairs the Jack and the river bricks and he’s looking at me trying to get me to table first and I’m looking at him like just turn your straight over already. He tables QT and I forgive him in my head for his flop antics.

In retrospect, I wonder if I can fold on the flop to his jam. Not that I think I made a mistake or that I’m looking for ways I could have lost less money on the hand – when I was thinking about my reaction to his $50 bet I knew that I would be calling an all in before I made it $140. I’m happy with that decision, but I did get some new, extremely reliable information before I had to execute on that plan. First of all, his body language was strong and when he was thinking about what to do after I made it $140 it didn’t look like he was thinking at all. After seeing this, I knew I was getting jammed on. But then he added on an “if you got me you got me,” which is basically always the nuts. He’s exuding strength and he really can’t have a set. All those hands would either open-raise or limp-reraise pre – especially after my $16 was called in multiple spots. AJ is a possible holding, but I don’t think he would look nearly as comfortable in this situation. He ended up having $280 on the flop, so from a math standpoint, there’s $96 ($16×6) + his $280 + my $140 in the pot for $516 total and it costs me $140 to call. If I knew he had a straight, this is an easy fold. I’m not getting anywhere close to the odds I need to draw to a four outer. I’m perfectly fine with my call, especially since I don’t know the player at all, but I think if I had history with him folding even after making it $140 could be justifiable here.

Session Result: -$165 in 35 minutes

$20/$40 LHE @ Fortune

This session produced a number of interesting hands – some that I’m actually quite ashamed of and wondered if I should even post, but in the interest of authenticity, I will include them. I feel like my mental game is a huge strength and while I might slip into my B-game at times, my C-game almost never makes an appearance. It might here though.

My friend is playing at the table with me and he’s a dealer at Fortune. He wants to switch tables because he doesn’t bet the river with three of the players in the game. I really don’t understand how or why that happens. We are playing $20/$40 – these are not recreational stakes. No one in this game cares if someone that deals in the room makes a bet against them and they aren’t going to tip him less because he plays poker against them. I propped games while I was flooring for years and played cutthroat poker against the customers and while some of them exuded a lot of frustration, they still tipped me and at the end of the day they respected the fact that when I played poker… I played poker. In a room like Fortune, you don’t need to play in the biggest game in the room if you want or feel like you need to give anyone air. It’s not about respect. Respect is playing the game.

And that’s when this hand comes up: a player opens from the lo-jack and it folds to me in the small blind. I have KJ of clubs. The player in question usually plays $8/$16 and from what I’ve garnered he doesn’t play particularly well. I feel like I can play my hand profitably against him, even from out of position. I would fold against a tight player that I also think plays well after the flop. But I three bet this guy. He calls. Flop is T94 with two diamonds and one club. I bet and he raises me. Welp. I’m not going to try and power my way through this one. I call. Turn is the 8 of diamonds and he bets again when I check. Continuing here is pretty debatable. Folding is probably the best play, but if you do call, I think you have to be prepared to do this: the river is the 2 of diamonds, putting a four flush on board; I lead out and he folds.

This is a player that my friend does not bet against. So he will never have this opportunity. I just bluffed my way to victory in a $300 pot that he would have to check the river in. Which means he should fold the turn in my spot because he can’t play poker on the river. And how is that fun for anyone? Also, when you have these kinds of unspoken agreements, you have no implied odds when drawing on the turn. Plus your opponents can call you with weak made hands on the turn because they know it’s a $40 decision and not an $80 one. Figure it out!

An early position player limps in, a middle position player raises, and I defend my big blind with 87. The flop comes 654 with two diamonds and I check-raise the flop and they both call. The turn is a jack and now the flop cold caller raises me. The PRF clears out and I three bet. The river is an ace, it goes bet and call, and she shows AJdd after I table my straight.

I open from middle position with QJ and the cutoff three bets me. We go heads up to the T98 flop and I check-raise. She calls. The turn is a 4 and she raises me, I three bet, and she caps. The river pairs the 4. Great. I didn’t really think she had a straight on the turn, so it’s pretty clear I can’t bet for value here. I check-call and she shows me 99. It’s always fun when someone overplays their hand on the big bet streets and then gets there.

Speaking of which! A few hands later it folds to me in the small blind and now I have 99. The big blind is a non-chopper, so I raise it and he calls The flop is 984 all hearts, giving me top set. I bet the flop and he calls. The turn is a king and I decide to check-raise, he three bets me, and now I cap… out of position. Yes, this is one of those C-game spots I was talking about earlier. I don’t think it’s a total spew – it might even have merit – but my standard line would be to call his three bet. I’m veering off course because of the previous hand. 100%. The river pairs the board, I bet and he calls. He didn’t seem too thrilled about it, so I assume he probably flopped a flush, but I really don’t know.

Folds to me in the hi-jack and I open with K4dd, which seems like it might too light when the cutoff, button, and both blinds all call me. Fortunately the flop comes K84 with two spades. I bet, the button raises, the small blind three bets it, and I cap. Oddly enough, the button folds and we are heads up now. The turn is an ace and he check-calls. The river is a 9 and he check-calls again and shows A9ss after I table. Ouch! I get his line because my range looks like AK or better, but I definitely did not expect to lose that pot to a check-call on the river.

A loose and bad player limps, a solid player in the cutoff raises, and I three bet with QQ from the small blind. They both call. The flop is AQx. I bet, the bad player calls, the good player snap-raises, and I make a judgement error by deciding to just call to keep the bad player in and check-raise the turn. The turn is a jack, I check, the bad player donks, the good player thinks for a bit looking confused and decides to raise, I three bet it, the bad player calls, and the good player caps. Huh. The river is a blank and I tank long enough that they are looking at me like what’s going on? and decide to check. The bad player checks and the good player bets, looking confident. I say “wow, snap-raise the flop with KT. Wow.” I call and he does show KT.

And if I’m being honest, I was steaming after that hand. I could feel the anger inside me. I wanted to direct it at the player with the KT, but I don’t think that’s who I was really mad at. I was mad at myself. Obviously this hand had a terrible result and I’m not happy about that. I think his flop line with KT is mega spew. Not because it doesn’t have merit in certain spots, but because it doesn’t have merit in this spot. Trying to get me to eventually fold a hand like TT, JJ, or KK doesn’t make much sense when there’s a third player in the pot that is rarely folding. And raising the flop to get a free card if he misses the turn? He’s picking the wrong target. Except he didn’t. By calling on the flop, I would have allowed him to execute on this plan if he had missed and the other player didn’t lead out. What a catastrophe it would be for me to let the turn check through holding a set. And that’s really the reason I was mad. I knew I took a poor line and if he had missed the turn, I would have let his ridiculous free card play work.

But before I emotionally recovered from that previous pot, I would play this extremely C-game hand. A couple players limp in and I raise with 99 on the button. One or both of the blinds call and now the bad player from the previous hand limp-reraises. I have history with him and I’ve seen this move with some pretty marginal holdings, so I go ahead and cap it. The flop comes down AKx, he leads out and I raise. The rest of the field has cleared and we are now heads up. He three bets and I call. The turn is a ten; he bets and I call? I mean I know this guy has a pretty wide range, but I’m not sure 99 is a hand to call down with on this board. Fortunately, the river is a 9 and I’m not even bothering to hide my amusement – I know I’m playing this hand bad and BAM! Here’s my reward. He doesn’t pick up on extremely visible tells – which is why I didn’t hide them – and I’m able to get two big bets from his AQ. Brilliant hand, Mac.

Session Results: +$280 in 10.5 hours

$8/$16 @ Palace

Here’s a hand where big blind defense against a button straddle goes wrong and why I think I should be folding most hands in this spot, even though I usually defend with a wide range in non-straddle pots. I’m about call with 97o and the under the gun player is already in motion to reraise. I haven’t put money in the pot yet and she didn’t cut out a three bet before realizing I hadn’t acted, but the speed in which she brought her chips into the pot felt like a pretty strong 3-betting tell. So I should just fold it. Instead, I call, and she does raise it. Ugh. Two players call, the straddler raises, and everybody calls. It’s worth noting that I don’t think the under the gun player knows that you can five bet a straddle pot. So her range is uncapped in my view. The flop comes 652 rainbow. It checks to a middle position player who bets, the button calls, and I raise it. This seems like a poor choice. I’m out of position and it’s unlikely I will thin the field very often. My thought process is that raising might buy outs for my overcards, but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that I’m almost certainly better off just taking my very favorable pot odds to try and draw to my gutshot. Immediate punishment: the under the gun player 3-bets and whoever is still in the pot all call. The turn is an Ace and I check-call, once again getting favorable odds to draw to the straight. The river pairs me, but I check-fold because it’s clear that my pair outs were no good on the flop and UTG wins with a set of aces.

Defense against a button straddle is definitely in need of further examination. More often than not, the pot will get three bet and quite frequently it will be five bets to go. So I think the correct strategy is to only defend a range of hands that play really well in big, multiway pots. 97 offsuit, out of position, certainly does not qualify.

I come back from a back and post in the cutoff with K5dd and it winds up getting capped with seven players in. The flop is a beautiful K73 with two diamonds and it gets capped again with me putting in the first raise and the cap. Five of us see the turn and I get three callers when I turn a flush. The river is the 4 of diamonds. Two players check in front of me and the opponent behind me is telegraphing weakness so I feel confident I still have the best hand. I get check-raised by a wild opponent. He’s a Palace legend, well known for his propensity for playing his hands blind all the way to showdown, making hopeless bluffs, and playing a generally crazy game. Obviously this player is deserving of a nickname. I will call him Daredevil, after the blind superhero, because he’s bold and frequently doesn’t look at his cards. Well, Daredevil check-raises me on the river when I’m holding the second nut flush and he’s a player that I’m never considering folding to, so I call. He shows Ad3x. Nice hand.

Daredevil limps in EP, I try to isolate with A8 of clubs near the button and three of us see the flop. It’s AK3 with two hearts. Daredevil is my only caller. The turn is an 8, giving me two pair and he check-calls again. The river is a 4 of hearts and he check-calls again. I table and he shows Q7 of hearts for a flush. He says something about giving me air and that I should remember that and I say “that’s not air! That’s making me think I won a pot that I’m not winning! That’s mean. I’d rather you raise me!”

Under the gun limps, a new player raises, a bad action player 3-bets on the button and I’m simply never folding the JT of spades from the blinds here, so I call. We see a flop of T92 with two diamonds and one spade. I check-raise the flop and the middle position player raises me back. I call and so does the button. I’m getting a fishy vibe from MP so my plan is to donk turns that are good for me. The 2 of spades definitely qualifies, as it keeps my top pair hand in good condition and adds a flush draw. So I bet and the MP raises again. The button takes two big bets to the dome and I call also. The river is a 3 and I check-call and lose to MP’s 92o. Nine. Deuce. Offsuit. This guy raised from MP after someone had already limped. Poker is dead?

Three or four people limp in and I check 77 from the big blind. The flop is Q53 with a flush draw possible. I lead out, my good friend from Kitsap who had the nickname Aquaman long before I started blogging poker regularly calls, and so does someone else. The turn is a 9 and it checks around. The river pairs the queen and I’m pretty sure I have the best hand. The question is, can I reasonably bet for value and expect to get called by worse? The answer is yes. I have a ton of history with Aquaman and a very strong read on his overall strategy. He has a pair, it’s worse than mine, and he will definitely call. I have no reason to believe the other player has anything at all. So I bet, Aquaman calls, the other guy folds, and I roll over 77 like it’s the nuts because it is.

Session Result: +$461

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, gambling for a living, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, pot limit omaha, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em | 1 Comment »

2018 Poker Schedule (LAPC, WSOP)

December 14, 2017

Here’s a look at the series and tournaments I’ll be targeting in the first half of 2018. Any event in bold is a tournament that I will 100% be playing, barring unforeseen circumstances. Any event that has an asterisk (*) in front of it means that it has multiple starting days and I’m not really committed to any particular one. I’m not exactly planning to play the WSOP Main Event this year, but I’m not ruling it out as a possibility either. A lot depends on how things go in the first six months of the year, but I almost certainly will NOT be playing it unless I have up to 80% of my action sold.

As of now, the only trip I have booked is the first of three to Commerce, so there is still plenty up in the air. My wife said I could stay for the whole WSOP this year, but that’s kind of hard to believe. We’ll see how she feels come June – especially since her birthday is smack dab in the middle of the series. I haven’t looked for any side events during the WSOP, but I’m sure Venetian, Aria, and Golden Nugget will have some things I’m interested in adding to my schedule.

LAPC @ Commerce

January 15th – $350 Omaha 8/Better
January 16th – $350 Triple Stud
January 17th – $350 Stud 8/Better
January 18th – $350 Omaha/Stud 8/Better

January 24th – $350 Limit Hold Em
January 25th – $350 HORSE
January 26th – $350 No Limit Hold Em
January 26th – $350 TOE (O8, Stud 8, 2-7 Triple Draw)
January 27th – $350 No Limit Hold Em
January 27th – $350 No Limit Hold Em/Pot Limit Omaha
January 29th – $570 Omaha 8/Better
January 30th – $570 Stud
February 1st – $570 HORSE

February 11th – $1100 Limit Hold Em
February 12th – $1100 Omaha 8/Better
February 13th – $1100 HORSE

PacWest Classic @ Chinook Winds

February 21st – $150 Omaha 8/Better
February 21st – $80 No Limit Hold Em Bounty
February 22nd – $150 Big Omaha 8/Better
February 23rd – $200 No Limit Hold Em
February 24th – $550 No Limit Hold Em Main Event

Summer Poker Classic @ Muckleshoot

March 14th – March 18th
or
March 21st – March 25th

WSOPc @ Planet Hollywood (Vegas)

March 22nd – April 2nd

WSOPc @ Harrahs (New Orleans)

May 10th – May 21st

World Series of Poker @ The Rio

May 31st – $1500 Omaha 8/Better
June 1st – *$365 No Limit Hold Em GIANT
June 2nd – *$565 No Limit Hold Em Colossus
June 3rd – $365 No Limit Hold Em Online
June 3rd – *$365 Pot Limit Omaha GIANT
June 6th – $1500 HORSE
June 8th – $565 Pot Limit Omaha
June 9th – $1500 8-Game
June 11th – $1500 Stud 8/Better
June 14th – $1500 Stud
June 16th – *$1000 No Limit Hold Em Double Stack
June 20th – $1500 Limit Hold Em
June 22nd – $2500 Omaha/Stud 8/Better
June 23rd – *$1500 No Limit Hold Em Monster Stack
June 24th – $1500 Razz
June 30th – *$888 No Limit Hold Em Crazy 8
July 2nd – *$10,000 No Limit Hold Em Main Event
July 9th – $3000 6-Max Limit Hold Em
July 12th – $3000 HORSE

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, gambling for a living, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, poker tournament strategy, Poker Tournaments, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em | 5 Comments »

$20/$40 Mega Heater & Incoming Jinx

November 18, 2017

The coolest thing about tracking your poker results with a phone app is the ability to filter all sorts of information. For instance, my data goes back to August of 2014 and I can tell you that I’ve lost more money playing $8/$16 Omaha 8/Better @ The Orleans in Las Vegas than I have in any other specific game during that time span. Or that I’ve lost more money at Muckleshoot than any other location… by far.

The reason I bring this up is because it felt like I’ve been running way above average in the $20/$40 LHE game at Fortune lately. So I did a little filtering and discovered that my hunch wasn’t wrong.

While it hasn’t felt like I’ve been absolutely murdering the game per say, it has felt like I haven’t had to face much negative variance in a long time. I regularly post wins of 5+ racks in the Palace $8/$16 game, but those 5+ rack wins have been much harder to come by at the $20/$40 level and I only have one such win in this 15-session sample size I’m about to mention. Still, I’m on a run so good I thought it might be unprecedented in my statistical history (it’s not – but I’ll get to that later).

This is what it looks like:

-Since May 1st, I’ve played 15 sessions of $20/$40 at Fortune and I’ve only lost twice.
-My worst loss is -$199 during that span.
-It’s not like I’m hit and running: I average 7.5 hours/session during this stretch.
-I’ve won nine sessions in a row.
-My best win is +$2907 and that’s my only win of 4+ racks during this stretch.
-The overall damage is +317 Big Bets at 2.84 BB/HR.

This is not normal. Since I’ve been tracking on this app, I’ve played 824 sessions of LHE in casinos and I’ve won in 54% of them. Over those 824 sessions, I’ve won at a 1.12 Big Bet/hour rate overall across all limits, so I’m a solid winner, but I still lose almost half the time I sit down to play LHE poker. There’s a lot of losing that goes on in poker and heaters like this are pretty rare, so you really have to enjoy them when they do happen.

Out of curiosity I filtered those 824 sessions down to sessions of 6+ hours to see if it makes a difference. It does. My winning percentage jumps up to 61% over 431 sessions.

As I discovered, this is not the best heater I’ve been on in a specific game at a specific casino. Unsurprisingly, I’ve had better runs in the $8/$16 LHE game at Palace in Lakewood.

I have multiple impressive streaks at Palace but this is by far my best one:

-From June 23rd to August 10th of last year I had 14 straight winning $8/$16 sessions at the Palace.

-My best win was +$2377 which happened to be on my birthday and still ranks as my best $8/$16 win of all-time.

-Overall, I won 493 big bets for a win rate of 5.5 BB/HR during this crazy stretch.

What a sick run! But the timing of it makes it even crazier. I had just got back from a massive run at the 2016 WSOP and in early August I was on a road trip and played a $30/$60 with a $50/$100 kill at Ameristar in Colorado where I had my best cash game session ever: +$4245.

All in all, quite a life-changing nine weeks.

But the thing about streaks is that they all end eventually. I don’t expect to win every time I play $20/$40 and I keep expecting to book that inevitable brutal loss. It will happen. So will a bad downswing.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if I jinxed this run good just by mentioning it!

Now on to some fun hands from this past week.

How Not To Play Kings

Hand #1

$20/40, I open from a later position with AJo and the button three bets me. The flop comes down AJx and I check-call the flop, check-raise the turn, and get paid off on the river by… KK. I feel like there may have been an opportunity to save a bet in there somewhere… I dunno.

Hand #2

$20/$40, same opponent, next day. They open UTG, an exceptionally loose player calls from MP, and I defend AJ from the BB. I check and overcall on A75 with two hearts flop. Same action on blank turn. River is the 9h, completing the flush draw and the 86 straight draw and I check and overcall again. And UTG tables… KK! Lol. My hand is good. I feel like maybe a bet could be saved somewhere but I dunno.

Hand #3

$20/$40, someone I’m unfamiliar with opens from MP as I 3-bet AQ, they flat, and then check-raise me on J73 with two diamonds. I call with my two overcards and backdoor nut flush draw. The turn is a pretty Q and now they check? Easy bet. River blank and I bet the obvious best hand and they call with… KK! This hand plays out the same way if they bet the turn and river but in that scenario I don’t think I have the nuts!

How I Play Kings… Sometimes

$20/$40, a very wide and aggressive – and reckless – player opens from EP, everyone else folds, and I defend KK from the BB. I like to have some strong hands in my defending range and I think it helps me collect extra big bets later in the hand.

The flop is 873 and I check-raise. Even though I’d ultimately like to check-raise the turn, I mix in some flop check-raising a portion of the time as I will occasionally be able to get three bets in on the flop and still check-raise the turn. My opponent just calls though.

The turn is a T and now they raise my bet. I think it’s still far too likely that my hand is good here – especially since it’s disguised, so I three bet and they snap-cap it. Gulp.

River pairs the board and I check-call while wishfully saying, “I hope you have Queens!” And they table… QQ. Yay! Now that’s a 4-betting the turn hand if I’ve ever seen one!

It’s Hard To Play A Full House Bad

But watch me do it!

$20/$40, another player I’m unfamiliar with opens from MP and I 3-bet 77 on the button. The small blind, a tight and solid player, calls which indicates a pretty strong holding and the original raiser now caps it.

The flop is J87 rainbow and the small blind leads out, the preflop capper calls, I raise, SB three bets, and I cap.

Turn is a J and the SB leads out again. The other player calls and I raise it. They both call.

I think this is some pretty optimistic thinking on my part. I have history with the small blind in O8, but not in LHE. I know she is a nitty player. I’m honestly not sure if she would call three bets with suited Broadway hands, so one has to wonder how many Jacks she has in her range. Even if she does call those hands, I highly doubt she goes crazy with them on this flop against an obviously nutted holding.

So what can she have? T9 suited? I really doubt it. It really feels like she has to have 88 here and this is running through my head as early as the flop action.

So what the hell am I doing on the turn?

But wait, it gets worse!

The river is a Queen and as that card hits the board I am watching the other player in the hand and he has a reaction to it.

But how can I check back a full house? Especially when it seems like only both of my opponents could very well have me beat now.

I bet, the small blind calls, and now the other player springs to life with a raise.

WOW, I SUCK.

I can basically throw my hand in a garbage can now – it’s that worthless. But I call. So does the small blind, now looking at me like “how big of an idiot are you?”

But my live read was a bad one. He reacted to the Q for some reason but he doesn’t have QQ. He has JJ. Quads. And she has 88.

A mega-cooler for sure, but goodness it’s hard to play a hand as bad as I played this one.

This Time I Have The Damn Nuts

$20/$40, I try to isolate a super loose player by raising 66 from the hi-jack but both the cutoff and the button come along for the ride.

Flop is TT9 with two clubs. Terrible board for me to c-bet since so many hands are calling even if they don’t have pairs yet. Everybody checks though.

The turn is a K and I have given up. Everybody checks though.

River is a J. Everybody checks and my hand is good.

TT9KJ. Take it 66.

This is a $20/$40 game. I think the fact that my hand was good is amusing enough but three different players at this level actually let me show it down… is, well, hilarious to me.

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, gambling for a living, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em | 2 Comments »

LHE with Friends!

November 12, 2017

I spent Thursday playing $8/$16 at Palace after catching a matinee of Jigsaw (review coming soon) and I don’t have a whole bunch to say about that session, but I did coax my friend Daniel into playing some LHE with me, which is notable because he’s a NLHE player and has been pretty open about his distaste for limit hold em poker. I even made a joke, tagging him on Facebook, saying that watching him play LHE was like seeing someone stuck in a Jigsaw trap.

Daniel basically stayed out of my way as I smashed flops most of the night, but we did play one very interesting – and oh so close to horribly devastating – pot together. In this hand, Daniel was a preflop raiser, there may have been another raise, there were lots of players, and I happily joined all that action with the JT of clubs from the small blind.

I got a very good flop of JT3 rainbow. Daniel lead out, a player or two called, I check-raised, Daniel called, now the latest position back-raises, I cap because this kind of play frequently checks back the turn, and we wind up getting all the bets in at least four ways.

Now here’s where things get interesting. The turn is a King, which is definitely one of my least favorite cards. Daniel could possibly have KK – although he got passive on the flop after leading initially – and he can certainly have AQ, and that hand makes a lot of sense given his line. Also, any of the flop callers can have Q9 or KJ or KT, plus AK and KQ aren’t far behind now. With all of this in mind, I think checking is my best play. So obviously I bet. Daniel immediately punishes me with a raise and now everyone else folds. His hand is so blatantly obviously AQ that I can hardly wait to fold my hand face up on the river if I miss to show how smart I am.

I call and the river does brick and before Daniel does anything, I turn my cards over. And then he turns QQ over in tempo and I can hardly believe the massive mistake I was so eager to make. I mean I’m still sick sitting here typing about it over three days later.

This is one of those massive errors that seems to revisit me every once in a while and you see so many “smart” players make over the years. They narrow someone down to one hand and then they act on that read and completely disregard the pot size. I’ve done it multiple times and I almost never do it now, but goodness was I ever ready to do it here. Thank you Daniel, for checking and saving me a lot of pain and heartache.

Now let’s talk about Daniel’s line. The thing I forgot is that Daniel basically never plays LHE, so narrowing his range down so thinly just can’t be wise – he might make plays that don’t make any sense to me. In NLHE, raising the turn here can make a lot of sense because he has QQ and is severely blocking the nut hand (AQ) and can easily represent it, with little fear that anyone else can have it. The problem in LHE is that, even though the blocker effect is still in play, you simply can’t apply the necessary pressure. All I have to do is call two big bets and I get to showdown in this massive pot. Plus, he’s underestimating the stickiness of the other Palace players – they just don’t fold.

I think if we were heads up, his turn raise makes more sense, because he can have straights and I really can’t, so I likely will never three bet and he can just showdown on the river when he misses and bet when he improves. The problem here is that we are still multiway on the turn and any of our other opponents can easily have hands like Q9, KJ, KT, KQ, etc. that are never folding.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think either of us played this turn well and I can’t believe how close I was to losing this whole pot out of sheer stupidity.

Another crazy pot happened later in the night when we had a round of button straddles going and I had K7 of hearts on the button and had to put in four bets before the flop.

I got a reasonable K96 with two spades flop and really liked my hand when everybody checked to me. The small blind (preflop 3-bettor) check-raised me, two others (including the preflop 4-bettor) cold called and I just called.

The turn was a pretty nice looking 7 and they all checked to me again. If I hadn’t improved, I might’ve checked here, but turning two pair made me a lot more confident about my hand. But then the small blind check-raised again, the next player called, and now the preflop 4-bettor wakes up with a check-three bet on the turn?!!? What?

I don’t often go into the tank in LHE but I was flabbergasted. My hand’s too strong to fold and I’m plenty confused, so I’m wasting time thinking, but sometimes I like to make sense of things before I proceed. The action seems pretty scary. I shouldn’t have the best hand.

But let’s think about that three bet. This player four bet before the flop. Then, second to last to act on the flop, he checked and cold called two bets after it was bet and raised back to him. Now, on the turn, it’s checked to him again and he risks giving another free card by checking to me. Okay, so he is putting in a cold three bet here – which is normally super strong – but I think it’s safe to assume this player does not have us beat.

The small blind could have us beat and the other player looks like he’s drawing but he could also be hanging on for dear life with a better two pair. But really, it actually looks like multiple players are going crazy with hands that are worse than mine.

So I call. Everyone else does too.

The river is the Jack of spades, completing the front door flush and improving QT and KJ as well. Everybody checks to me again. I’m pretty happy to show down at this point and somehow my hand is still good.

I wasn’t planning to write about this session so I didn’t keep any notes, but I do recall one other fun hand where I opened with AA and got raised on the turn on a Q74J board and then check-called the river when the J paired and they had… A5 offsuit. Gotta love that creativity!

All in all, a pretty sexy Thursday night session to the tune of +$1025.

I went to Fortune the next day for some $20/$40 and even though I didn’t write notes for this session either, I feel it’s important for me to mention how great the game was because the last two times I’ve posted about the Fortune $20/$40 it has been pretty negative. The game this Friday was amazing. One of the best I’ve ever played in. There were two fun, loose players at my starting table and then when I migrated to follow them later I found myself on the left of two guys that were playing every hand no matter what the action was to them. One of them played rather reasonably after the flop, but the other guy was recklessly aggressive, betting and raising when he had any piece of the board, no matter how little it was.

Here’s a typical example: they both limp in, I raise with JJ, the flop is A65 and the crazy guy bets, I call; the turn is a 7, he bets and I call; river is a blank, he bets and I call; he shows 73 offsuit.

I got off to a rough start and found myself in the game for $3500 pretty early in the day, but fortunately I was eventually able to take advantage of the favorable situation and had enough hands hold up (and I lost a bunch of sick ones all day!) that I was able to make a complete come all the way back and even booked a solid win of $1409. It really did feel like I was running bad most of the day, but the game was so good that when I did win the occasional pot, it was almost always massive. I also won $63 in NLHE waiting for my seat for a total win of $1472 for the day.

Pretty fortunate start to November so far!

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, gambling for a living, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em | 1 Comment »

$20/$40 Session Report: November 3rd

November 5, 2017

Actually most of my interesting hands happened while I was playing in the $1/$3 No Limit game at Fortune while waiting for a $20/$40 seat. I almost never play $8/$16 at Fortune and I guess my theory is that I’d rather warm up in games I don’t get much playing time in, like NLHE or Limit Omaha.

The Accidental Min-Raise

My first fun hand happens early in the session. The $1/$3 game has a max buy in of $300, so I always sit down with four $25 chips, $180 in $5 chips, and $20 in $1 chips – plus $500 in my pocket to add on and reload as I dip below the table max.

The player to my direct right makes it $16 to go and I have 77 next to act. This is an annoyingly large open-raise but we are deep enough (barely!) that I can call and try to set mine or simply play a good hand in position. So I call… or I think I do. I mentioned my buy in method because instead of calling with three $5 red chips and a blue one, I accidentally throw in a green $25 chip and three blue $1 chips. Whoops. I am now committed to a minimum raise to $29 because I put in multiple chips and over half the raise size.

I reacted pretty genuinely to my mistake, but the no limit players have basically no history with me so I wouldn’t blame any of them for thinking I could be running an angle here (i.e. pretending like I accidentally raised when I have a hand like AA). However, if I were the original raiser I would give serious consideration to four-betting my entire range here and expecting to get a lot of folds. He just calls though, which I thought was kind of surprising.

The flop comes out 944 with two diamonds and he leads out $35 and I almost have to stifle a laugh. Oh, now you want to be aggressive? I think it’s safe to assume my hand is always good here and I’ve debated with a friend about the merits of raising on the flop in this spot because there are a number of turn cards that we won’t love and I’d like to deny equity to those hands. On the other hand, we are in a tough spot if he goes for the hammer with a flush draw and we don’t really mind him betting the worst hand either. So I call.

The turn is a 5 of spades, opening up a backdoor flush draw, and he bets $52 rather quickly and nonchalantly. Another easy call for me, but I make it look like I’m thinking about it.

The river bricks out and he checks and it’s hard to imagine what hands I would get value from by betting, so I check back and he shows AK of spades. I said earlier that I would consider four betting his entire range in his spot preflop, but trying to get all the money in with AK suited is a slam dunk! A honest mistake from me and a really weird line from my opponent here.

Another Profitable Mistake

By this time, I’ve come to realize that the villain in the previous hand is very aggressive preflop, probably opening or raising over 30% of his hands. That makes his flat call with the AK suited even stranger. Well, in this hand, he decides to open-limp on the button. I’ve seen him do some limping, which is atypical for him, but the button open-limp is a new one.

I call with J2 of diamonds from the small blind and the big blind checks his option. The flop is A92 with two spades and one diamond. There is basically no money in the pot and my hand is pretty piddly but I think a $5 bet should take the pot down very often here, so I toss a red chip out. The big blind folds and the button almost immediately makes it $17. I have basically zero respect for this raise, so I call and I’m probably going to try and win the pot unless a spade comes.

The turn is the 3 of diamonds, which gives me a flush draw in addition to my pair. I check it and he bets $25. I still think he is weak here and now I have a lot of equity so I check-raise to $70 and he thinks for quite some time before eventually folding AQ face up! I actually said “wow” in genuine shock because that was not a hand I was trying to get him to fold because I didn’t think it was possible he could be that strong.

I have to wonder why an overly aggressive player would choose to open-limp with AQ on the button. Isn’t it to set a trap? Well, I fell right into it and then he decided to just be like “naw, you have this one.” I guess he had no idea what I thought of his image.

I Get Stacked By A Shocking Hand

I open to $10 from early position with AJ of clubs and only the big blind defends. The flop comes 732 with two clubs and he checks it over to me. I think this is a good flop to consider checking with in order to balance my checking back range, but a) I’m a part-time player in this game, b) I don’t think this opponent is really thinking about ranges, and c) I want to build a pot against weak players. So I bet $10 and he check-raises me to $25. He started the hand with about $215 and you really have to wonder what kind of hands he would check-raise on this flop. The only hands I’m in bad shape against are the sets and he doesn’t appear strong at all to me. I decide that I am willing to play for all the money if he wants to, so I stick in a commitment raise to $85, which is roughly 40% of the remaining stacks. The only appropriate response to my raise is all in or fold, so obviously this guy calls. *face palm*

The turn is a brick, like an 8 or something, and he stuffs his remaining $121 in the pot and I snap call, annoyed. I’ll be even more irritated in a second, but first I want to look at the math here. I committed myself to getting all the chips in on the flop, but he thwarted that plan by just calling and letting a turn roll off with money behind. So after his all in and subtracting for the rake ($6), there is now $306 in the pot and it costs me $121 to call. I’m getting a little over 2.5 to 1 to call, so I need to win about 28.5% of the time to make calling profitable. I think it’s safe to assume all my flush outs are clean, but I’m going to make a flush less than 20% of the time on the river. If one of my overcards is live I’m still a little short, but if they are both live, I have an easy call. Plus there is some remote chance that I have the best hand. He could be doing this with a naked flush draw himself, or even a combo draw like 54 of clubs. With my perceived outs alone, it’s a pretty close call, but when you add in the chances of having the best hand, I just have to go with it.

Well, I do call. The river is a 2 and he shows…

AK offsuit.

Ouch.

Okay, so I didn’t exactly get stacked, but I doubled him up with most of my stack and I really have no idea how he got all the chips in after the flop but… maybe I should’ve balanced that checking range!

Image For The Max

This hand happens shortly after that last one and I try to isolate one limper by making it $10 to go on the button with 54 of spades. Both blinds and the limper call, which is not very ideal considering I have 5 high and I think my credibility is low at the moment.

What is ideal is a T55 flop. Everybody checks to me and I bet $15 and one of the blinds snap calls, practically salivating from the mouth at the thought of picking off my upcoming barrels.

The turn is a 2 and I bet $35 into $64 and again he calls quickly.

The river is a Q and he checks again. There is now $134 in the pot, I have $234 behind and he has me covered. I’m thinking long and hard about my bet size because I was going to size large on the river but I’m a little concerned that the Q might kill my action a little because it creates a lot of chops and brings an overcard to the obvious pair of tens my opponent has. However, while I’m thinking this over, he says “Oh come on, you know you can only bet if you have a 5” and I really felt like that was my cue to go for it all. I shove and he SNAP CALLS! Gotta love it. Bet almost 2x pot on the river and he gives it zero thought. Wow!

I finished my 82 minute $1/$3 session up $183 despite being down a full buy in at one point. I’ll take it!

$20/$40 Snooze Fest

Goodness the $20/$40 games at Fortune have been bad the last two times I’ve played. I have now logged 15.75 hours over my last two $20/$40 sessions and I would say I’ve been in a good game for less than two of those hours. Both times I’ve played I didn’t find my way to a good game until the very end of my session when I was practically ready to go.

On the plus side, I love to terrorize nits. If nobody wants to play hands, then I’m just going to play them all and they’re either going to let me win $30-$50 every hand or they’re going to have to get out of their comfort zones. Usually tables will get tired of this and I can back off as they start playing looser and fail to adjust to my change of pace.

But I have been in some seriously nitty lineups. Like, to the point where I was comfortably raising hands like K8 suited and QT offsuit from under the gun. In the later positions, I was frequently raising and betting until they made me look at my hands.

I admittedly ran very good when they did play back at me. I raised dark on the button and got called by the small blind and three bet by the big blind then flopped trip threes with A3 offsuit. I raised dark from the cutoff and the button three bet me and I flopped quads with K2 suited. I opened with 55 and both blinds raised me and I flopped a set of 5s! Pretty lucky… and it really makes the table feel handcuffed when you are steamrolling them and then flopping huge when they do fight back.

I ended up leaving that horrible game up about $800, which is no small accomplishment when no one is putting money in the pot.

Naturally, I started to run like crap when I got in a good game. The first hand I played, I turned the nuts with JT suited in a massive pot and lost to a rivered flush, a solid $700 swing in the wrong direction. I also got really card dead and then whiffed the flop whenever I did find a hand to play.

All in all, I finished up a disappointing $241 in the $20/$40 game and booked a $424 win for the day.

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, gambling for a living, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em | Leave a Comment »

Muckleshoot Summer Classic 2017 – Poker Blog

September 19, 2017

I always look forward to Muckleshoot’s big poker series that happens twice a year, but I have to say my results in that casino have been pretty poor. I’ve cashed the $750 Main Event three times, but I’ve never final tabled an event in this series. My plan is usually to play all the events, but if I whiff the first three events I skip the $500 tournament if I don’t have any points for Player of the Series. I just don’t think it’s very good value for a $500 buy in and I’d rather take the day off and relax before the Main Event so I’m as fresh as I can possibly be for the best tournament Washington state has to offer.

Event #1: $250 No Limit Hold Em Shootout

The first event was the $250 NL Shootout – a tournament I have never cashed. I have probably only been a regular in this series since maybe 2015, so when I say I’ve never cashed it, I’m like 0-4 or 0-5, which sucks, but isn’t too crazy considering my fair share of cashes is 10%. I could win two of my next four tries and be running way above average overall. Small samples! For those that don’t know, a Shootout format plays like a one table tournament. You start with 10 players and play down to 1 winner and there is no balancing amongst other tables. All tables play down to one winner and those winners all cash and advance to the next round, which in this case combines all 17 winners and plays out like a normal tournament the rest of the way.

I was at a very favorable table, but it’s hard to accumulate chips when your good hands don’t win. Before the first break I had lost with 99 twice, TT, and AJ. I stole the blinds with QQ in the first level. I was sitting at 6600 after starting with an 8000 stack and I hadn’t won any notable hands.

I didn’t write specific notes about this hand but I’m going to do my best to remember it because it was an important one. I believe the blinds were 100-200 with a 25 ante and I had AJ and probably made it 450 or 500 and I got one caller. The flop was 222 and I bet 500, which was probably about 40% of the pot. My opponent made it 1500. This is really weird. I have his range capped somewhere around 99, meaning I think he three bets TT+ preflop most of the time. I think he raises smaller pairs some of the time also, but I think it’s pretty clear that his hand is a small-to-medium pair the vast majority of the time here. After betting 500, I have somewhere around 7k left in my stack, so if I jam it would be 5500 more for him to call in a pot that will be about 9500. I don’t think he should be folding in that spot, which is why his flop raise doesn’t make any sense to me. When I have an overpair he just doubles me up over 90% of the time. Not only do I think raising the flop with his hand is a mistake, I also think he might be capable of folding to a jam. I gave some serious thought to stuffing it. When people make plays that don’t make much sense, they are usually capable of compounding their errors. Part of me thought he made this flop raise because he thought/hoped I had unpaired big cards, but if I go all in, I am now telling him I have a big pair and I really thought he might let it go. I wasn’t certain though and it wouldn’t surprise me if he called it off, so I didn’t pull the trigger. Instead, I flatted. There was now about 3400 in the pot and it cost me 1000 to continue. I thought if I called he was very likely to check back the turn so I figured myself for six outs twice, which makes this play borderline okay as I pick up a Jack or an Ace about 24% of the time. Obviously, in order to make this play profitable, I’m going to have to jam if a King or Queen hits as well. This gives me ~14 scare cards, one of which will appear by the river over half the time, and makes this flop peel very reasonable. Unfortunately, the board came out clean for him and he was able to table his 44 for the win. But he did check back the turn and river so I think my flop call is plenty defensible. This was a pretty frustrating hand because I realized that if I had an overpair he was just going to punt his stack to me so often and it felt like such a wasted opportunity.

That hand left me with 17 big blinds, which I 3-bet jammed over an open with AQ shortly afterwards and lost a flip to TT. Good game.

Bonus Event: $200 Limit Omaha 8 or Better

I didn’t keep any notes for this tournament and my first update on Facebook was 4.5 hours in saying I had five bigs with 22 players left and 10 of us cashing. While I can’t recall any notable hands up to this point, my ride from here was pretty wild and included an all-time great bad beat. Limit formats can create some interesting spots that don’t come up in No Limit tournaments. For instance, I was left with less than two big blinds TWICE. In NL, you just get all the chips in and if you lose you’re out; but in limit, especially in a split pot game, you don’t have to get all the chips in and you frequently get portions of the pot back. I tried to get all in on the flop in one hand, but my opponent just flatted my raise and when I picked up no additional equity on the turn, I checked back, and ended up saving my last bet instead of busting because I was “priced in.” So they had me down to less than two big blinds, not once but twice, and I managed to run that up to a 10 big blind stack when this catastrophe happened:

I opened to 12000 at 3000/6000 with A753 plus a suited ace and only the big blind defended. The flop came down a beautiful AQ2 rainbow, giving me top pair, a wheel draw, and a back door nut flush draw. My opponent check-called and then led into me when a 4 hit on the turn. What a dream spot! I had the mortal nuts. I started the hand with 45000 and after raising the turn here, I had managed to get 42,000 of it in the pot holding the nut high and the nut low. My opponent called and then disaster struck: the river was a 3. This is a terrible card because now he’s chopping the pot with me if he has A5, 25, and 45, giving him a wheel he didn’t have before. I wish that’s what he had. What he actually had was 654X, giving him a wheel AND a six high straight and 75% of the pot. I went from scooping a 90K pot to losing half my stack instead. There were 14 players left in the tournament at this point and scooping that hand would have put me second in chips. First place was $3500. Needless to say, that one hurt a little. I ended up folding my big blind and got my last 3 or 4 bigs in from the small blind and I was out of miracles and out of the tournament in 14th place.

It was 1 AM and I had been playing poker since noon with nothing to show for it and I was reeling from that brutal pot. Even though I was already bought in for the next day, I realized I absolutely did not want to come back and play at noon. I sold my seat and took the next day off.

Event #3: $300 No Limit Hold Em

I wrote some scattered notes for this tournament so I’ll do my best to piece it together. I had 20k from 12k starting after the first three levels and I was loving my table. I was controlling the action pretty well and didn’t have any massive confrontations early. Here are some notable hands from the first few levels (they may or may not take place in sequence):

I open AQ and button and big blind call. Flop is A32 all clubs and I have no club. I size a little larger than normal since I’m out of position against one player and my hand is very vulnerable. Only the big blind calls. The turn is a ten that is not a club. My opponent check-calls again. When the dealer is bringing the river I am watching my opponent and not the board so I am quite displeased when I see him reaching for chips and tossing a 3200 bet out. The river is not a club though and pairs the 3, so I am quite perplexed. His bet is pretty polarizing: he either has a flush or a full house or he’s bluffing his missed draws. I don’t know this player very well, but I would guess he’s probably not bluffing often enough here. Still, since I don’t have any great reads at this point, folding is pretty weak and I pay off his king high flush.

I completed 76 from the small blind and saw a flop of T76 in a 3-way pot. My hand is pretty vulnerable to free cards here but the pot is small, so I decide to check and the limper bets 600. I make it 1650 to go and he snap calls. The turn is an Ace and I lead 2000 and he folds, exposing a ten.

This hand takes place in level six and by this point the action at my table has slowed substantially and I’ve gone card dead, so I get frisky – hoping to exploit the current trend of tight play and my nitty image – by opening Q8hh from UTG+1 and make it 900 at 200/400 with a 50 ante. Only the big blind defends and then he leads out a hefty 1600 on the 984 flop with two spades and one heart. This is the same player that check-called twice with the nut flush earlier, so I think it’s reasonable to rule out very strong holdings from his range. I don’t love calling this bet size but considering I have a pair and a back door flush draw, as well as knowing his history of slow playing strong hands, I have to continue. The turn is a 5 and he bets 3200. The only draw that completed was 76 and I think it’s very unlikely that he will fire another bullet with 9x on the river, so my plan is to call again and probably fold the river if I don’t improve and he bombs it. The river was a 6 and now he checked it to me. I was never considering the possibility of turning my hand into a bluff, but now the opportunity was presenting itself. He had a little less than 6000 behind and there was around 12k in the middle. I obviously have a hand with plenty of showdown value, so checking back is reasonable, but what I really want to do is fold out his 9x hands. He’s never calling with his missed draws and I already ruled out his stronger holdings (sets), but I think he can fold his 9x and possibly his two pair hands here. Granted, I don’t have many 7x hands in my range (97s, 87s, 76s, A7ss, 77) and I probably wouldn’t try bluffing here against a better player, but I think he’s scared of the four card straight more than he’s thinking about my actual range and I only need this bluff to get through 33% of the time to break even, so it’s a pretty easy shove for me. He folds.

Two rounds later, I’m sitting on about a 22 big blind stack when it folds to me on the button and I look down at AJ. The small blind has me covered and the big blind has about 19 bigs to start the hand. I believe the player in the big blind is a thinking player and will realize I’m opening wide on the button and possibly try to exploit that by playing back at me with less than premium holdings. The small blind appears to be straight forward. Blinds are 400/800 and my plan is to open to 2000 and fold to a 3-bet from the small blind but get it in against the big blind. The small blind folds and the big blind does raise me, to about 7500, which is odd considering she has a reshove stack. Still, I didn’t waste time thinking about her sizing and got it in quickly and she snap-called with AK and I found myself crippled after the hand. I’ve been thinking about this one, wondering if she’s really ever 3-betting me light. I think it’s pretty standard to get it in with the AJ here, but I might be able to make exploitive folds against this player. While I’m sure she knows I’m capable of raising light on the button here, I’m not convinced she’s willing to exploit me by jamming hands like A8 or 33. I’m okay with the play, but I may be overestimating her capabilities here.

I doubled my remaining three bigs by winning with 44 vs KQ and then my 8 bigs jam with AQ lost to AK even though I turned plenty of equity with the nut flush draw and chop outs to a straight.

Event #5: $750 No Limit Hold Em Main Event

I kept some solid notes for this one and I actually felt like I played very well and had a strong read on all my opponents, but things did not go my way at all.

With the blinds at 25/50, there was a limper or two and the player to my right made it 250 to go. I had pocket tens. This is a hand that I like to flat this early in the tournament, but I do need to 3-bet it some of the time in order to keep my reraising range balanced. I think this is actually a good spot to make the raise, but in this instance I elected to call and six players ended up seeing the flop. On an 873 rainbow flop it checks to the preflop raiser who bets 500 into a 1500 pot, which is actually a pretty weak bet in this situation. With four players left to speak behind me though, I think calling and seeing what happens is best here. Five of us end up seeing the turn, which is a Jack. Now the preflop aggressor bets 1700 into a pot of 4000. I could have the best hand here and calling is probably standard, but since no one showed any real strength on the flop and because I had two tens in my hand, I decided to represent the T9 straight and made it 4100 to go. It’s really hard for anyone else to have the nuts and I thought there was some chance that my opponent would fold an overpair and if he called, I could make some decisions on the river, whether I wanted to continue the bluff or just show my hand down. While the other four players did fold, I was rather shocked when the aggressor reraised me to 9500. That is something I did not expect. Holding two blockers to the nuts, I felt pretty confident that if he did continue, it would be with a call. Instead, I ended up having to fold and he made a classy comment of “nice try.”

With the blinds still at 25/50 the cutoff opened to 250 and I defended 99 from the big blind. This is another potential 3-bet hand, but facing this raise size (which is huge), I went with a call. The flop was J43 and my opponent quickly checked behind. I lead out 350 when I turned a set and he called. The river was an 8 and I had already established my opponent as a calling station so even though it seemed like he was on the weaker side of his range, I decided to bet 1500 into 1225, as I thought he wouldn’t fold any pair and could very well call me with ace high. He did not oblige – he made it 3500 instead. This is not a fist pump and call situation. In fact, it very well might be a fold. Still, there is some chance he rivered a set of 8s and it’s not like I have so much history with this player that I can reliably start folding sets to him. So after giving it the “wow, how unlucky am I” head nod for about 10 seconds, I realized I’m never folding this hand and should stop wasting everyone’s time. Plus, the longer I wait, the more of an asshole I’m going to look like when my set of 9s are good. So I called and lost to his QT straight.

For some reason, our table was really limpy at the 75/150 level and I found myself limping along with 77 in a 5-way pot and getting the 764 with two spades flop. Everyone checked to me and I bet 500 into 750 and only one of the blinds called. The turn gave me quads and I bet 850 into 1750 and was called again. The river was a Ten and my opponent checked again. As I was thinking about my bet sizing with 3450 in the pot, I saw that she was shuffling her cards around in front of her and generally looking like she was going to fold. But this isn’t a player that I think is unaware of her body language, so I actually thought this meant she was trying to induce a bluff and was very likely to call, so I sized up at 2200 and she didn’t take very long to put the call out.

In the very next hand, I was able to limp along again with 66 and flopped another set on a very similar board, this time the 765 with two clubs. One of the limpers led out 350 into 750 and was called by another limper. I elected to make it 1450 on such a draw heavy board and both those players called. The turn was an 8 and I was pretty sad to see a 16.5k shove and a 21k shove before the action got to me. Obviously, I no longer have the best hand, but we were still in the re-entry period and it’s worth taking some time to try and figure out the math of the situation. I had around 20k behind and it was going to cost me all of it to see the river. So with 41.6K in the pot, I had to call 20K and I had ~10 outs once, or roughly 20%. So I had to put up 33% of the pot and I’m only going to get there 20% of the time. Mathematically, it’s a clear fold, especially since I still had a starting stack behind. I think if this was a smaller tournament still in the re-entry period, I would gamble with the worst of it for a chance to have a 60k stack in level 3, but I didn’t love the idea of busting out 80% of the time and paying another $750 for the stack I had sitting in front of me already. So I folded and the A9cc missed its freeroll versus the 96hh when a Jack hit the river.

My next critical hand at the 75/150 level saw someone opening from early position to 350 and I picked up AA and made it 1125. She called that raise and we saw a flop of QJ8 with two clubs and one spade. This is a poor flop for my hand – especially since both my aces were red – and it smacks her calling range pretty hard, so when she checked to me, I decided to check it back and let a card roll off. The turn was an ugly 9 of spades and she led out 1500. I’m losing to a lot of hands. The better question is, what hands would she raise/call with preflop that I’m still beating? AK, KQ, AQ? Maybe AJ suited? With two aces in my hand, I’m blocking the hands I want her to have pretty hard, plus AQ and KQ aren’t really hands it makes sense for her to bet here. At this point, it’s a pretty trivial fold, but it feels a bit bizarre to put zero chips in the pot after the flop heads up holding AA in position. I think it’s reasonable to bet the flop here, but I hate it if I get check-raised and even if she just calls there are going to be a lot of bad run outs for my hand. This is not the kind of board I want to play a big pot with. I think I get the best value out of my hand by checking back the flop and betting good turn cards when checked to or calling if she bets and then deciding on the river. She later told me she had TT and while I’m not saying that’s the gospel truth it’s certainly a hand that makes sense.

Here’s another hand I thought I botched. With the blinds at 100/200 and a 25 ante two players with wide ranges limped in from mid and late position and I made it 700 to go with K8 of clubs on the button. I think this play picks up the pot a decent portion of the time preflop and when I get called, I’m positive they fold often enough on the flop to make this play profitable – and that’s ignoring the times I actually make the best hand. They did both call, as did one of the blinds – not my dream scenario – and we ended up seeing a flop of AK2 rainbow, but with the 2 of clubs. Everyone checked to me and while this is a great hand to check behind, I think betting is perfectly reasonable. I’m not really worried about either of the limpers having an ace when they decide to call from later positions, so I frequently have the best hand and I should just bet it for value and try to win this pot right now. A check would make a lot more sense in a heads up pot, but I went with a check here. The turn card brought the 3 of spades, which opened up a spade draw and it checked to the player to my right and he bet 1000. Easy call for me and everyone else folded. The river was a ten and now he bet 2200 into what was about a 5100 pot. I actually hated this bet sizing because it screamed value. I had seen this player bluff the river and get picked off a couple of times now and I was really picking up the vibe that he had a hand this time. I even said “I don’t think you’re bluffing this time” aloud, but I was having a hard time coming up with hands that made sense because I didn’t think he had an ace and I didn’t think it made much sense to bet any other one pair hand, so his value range is super narrow – sets and straights, that’s about it. I went against my instincts and called and he showed me a hand that made perfect sense: the QJ of spades. Going back to my flop line on this hand, I’m not saying I made a mistake because of how the hand turned out, but in retrospect, I think a bet is my best play there. With about 2800 in the pot and a good flop for my range that isn’t susceptible to many draws, I would have sized small, probably 1200 at most, and the player with the QJ of spades would have almost certainly peeled the turn and I would have lost anyway… but still, I like to make the right plays, regardless of results.

At this point, I had lost with pocket aces and two sets and was having a really hard time accumulating any chips. I seemed to be losing most of the pots I played and I had ran my 20k starting stack down to 6k, so when the under the gun player made it 800 with the blinds at 150-300 and I looked down at AK in the big blind, I had a very easy reshove and she snapped with JJ and I lost the race.

I’m not going to lie, it’s pretty frustrating how I haven’t been able to have any breakthrough success at Muckleshoot. The data on my phone goes back to August of 2014 and I’ve lost more money at Muckleshoot than ANY casino and it’s one of only two casinos that I’ve played 70+ hours at during that span and have not won money overall. Granted, I don’t grind cash games there (53 hours in 3+ years) but I’ve played 30 tournaments and only cashed 4 of them (13.3%) and I have zero final tables. It’s still a pretty small sample size and I’m confident things will turn around eventually – especially if I increase my volume – but I have to say I’m tired of this stigma I have with Muckleshoot Casino!

Posted in poker | Tagged limit omaha 8, muckleshoot, muckleshoot summer classic, no limit hold em, no limit hold em tournaments, playing poker for a living, poker, Poker Tournaments, professional poker | Leave a Comment »

2016 Poker Goals

January 6, 2016

My goals for 2016 aren’t fully realized just yet, but I have a pretty good idea of what I want to accomplish so I’ll go ahead and share some of them.

Play 1250 hours

Even though this number is less than the amount of volume I put in last year, I think it’s a reasonable target. It would allow for me to play three 8 hour sessions a week, which is probably my happy zone, considering I work 30 hours a week at my day job. I will probably end up crushing this goal, but I just like to have a Mendoza Line for how much poker I need to play in order to keep myself satisfied.

Play 150 hours of Omaha 8 or better and maintain a 1 BB/HR win rate

As noted in my 2015 wrap up, I am pretty disappointed in my results in Omaha games. Granted, I haven’t put in a ton of volume – probably not even enough to have meaningful results – but I know I can do better. I can feel myself doing fishy things – limping with hands I should probably be folding, calling on the flop with non-premium draws, etc. – so there’s tangible room for improvement. Part of my problem is that my limit hold em game has evolved to the point where my playing style is almost entirely exploitive and I’m hyper-aware of what’s going on. I do not have the same game feel in Omaha, and yet, I feel myself wanting to remain unpredictable when my experience level probably calls for me to simply nit it up. Even so, I can see some improvement happening. My big cash last year was in an O8 tournament, so I actually won considerable money in the variant last year (no thanks to my cash game performance), and a hand from that final table stands out: in this hand, I flopped a ten high flush and value bet it to the river; by this point, the board was paired and I had rivered a wheel, but my opponent was now raising me after calling the two previous streets. To me, it was perfectly clear that I was being raised by a wheel, so I three bet with my ten high flush confident that I was quartering my opponent. He called and tabled the wheel just as I suspected and I took 75% of a critical pot. But when I tabled my hand, there was some commentary that implied my three bet on the river may have been reckless. Perhaps that sentiment is right, in general, but in this specific spot, the flow of the hand made it rather apparent, to me, that I was quartering my opponent. This is the kind of laser awareness that I frequently have while playing hold em, but I rarely feel it when I’m playing Omaha. I’m hoping to change that in 2016. My current plan is to play two sessions a month at Clearwater Casino in their $10/$20 O8 game and I tend to gravitate to the O8 cash games whenever I have time to play in Vegas.

Play 100 hours of no limit cash games

At some point, my game simply has to evolve to the point where I am a small to medium stakes no limit cash game expert. I feel like my win rate in an $8-$16 limit game has a ceiling of somewhere around $25/hour, whereas $40+/hour should be attainable in a $3-$5 no limit game. Last year I only played 40 hours of NL cash and the biggest reasons for my reluctance to play a ton of volume are: a) $3-$5 is a pretty high starting point – I’m super conservative with my bankroll and I still feel like playing in that game is kind of like taking a shot; b) I feel like a novice at a NL cash game table; and c) in my limited experience of playing live NL cash games, I’ve experienced a tremendous amount of short term bad luck – I’ve had AA < KK twice, KK < AA twice, and the one time I had KK > AA my opponent had a short stack. In what probably amounts to less than 200 hours of live no limit play for my career, it’s absurd how many times I’ve ran Kings into Aces, or vice versa, all with bad to terrible results. I’ve had a number of other bad connections where I can remember getting felted. To sum up, I’ve experienced the feeling of being the stackee far more times than feeling of being the stacker and it has left a bad taste in my mouth when it comes to NL cash games. Still, I can’t imagine having a future as a full time poker player if I’m not a NL cash game expert, so I want to start developing that muscle this year. My current plan is to play the Muckleshoot $3-$5 game at least once a month on Fridays when it’s at its juiciest and I may try to play once a month on Wednesdays as well, although the games are probably far less attractive in the middle of the week.

Do the Advanced Poker Training weekly challenge every week and spend at least an hour a week playing hands on APT

The last thing I want to do is help my opponents improve, but anyone that reads Card Player magazine probably knows this online poker training site exists, so if you’re willing to spend the money to join up, go ahead. My wife got me a lifetime membership to this site for Christmas and I have to say I’m super impressed with the operation. A ton of notable pros (Jonathan Little, Scott Clements, Lauren Kling, Ed Miller) are active participants and the site allows me to practice specific tournament situations with specific hands and simulate live NL cash games without having to risk any money. One of the coolest things I’ve been able to do on the site is set up a tournament that mimics the structure of an event I’m about to play and simulates the level of talent I expect to face, without having to wait in between decision points. It’s a pretty sick site and I expect it to do wonders for my tournament and NL cash games as long as I put in the work.

Play 3-5 WSOP events

I’m ready to step up my WSOP volume, starting this year. I’ve played in two WSOP events in each of the past two years and so far I’ve gone 0 for 4. This year I’m planning to play the Casino Industry event and probably the Colossus again, but I also want to expand into some $1500 events. I know for sure I want to play a $1500 H.O.R.S.E. and $1500 Razz event and I think I’d also like to play the $1500 Monster Stack NL event. The WSOP hasn’t released a full schedule yet, so while I know I’ll be in Vegas the first week of June, I don’t know how the rest of the schedule is going to pan out. Also, I’m hoping the first quarter of 2016 is extremely lucrative for me, otherwise playing in $5500+ worth of tournaments in a month isn’t very practical – unless I have substantial backing, which is certainly possible.

Cash a WSOP event

With four WSOP events under my belt and as many as five planned for 2016, I would be running below average not to find a cash in my first nine WSOP events. Certainly cashing an event would help my cause to play more events this year… and it would also help achieve my goal of netting another career high tournament score. I feel like I’m on the brink of a life-changing cash and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happens in 2016.

Read through Jared Tendler’s The Mental Game Of Poker vols. 1 & 2 and do ALL the work

I’ve read most of Vol. 1 multiple times and it has done wonders for my mental game… but I still haven’t fully absorbed the material and there is still a ton of room for improvement. I’m pretty confident that one of my biggest edges in my normal game is how tough I am mentally (bankroll is another big one). The standard swings of the game have little affect on my mental state and basically no affect on my actual play while the majority of my opponents’ games fall of a cliff after a difficult hour and sometimes after losing a single, critical pot. That doesn’t mean I’m immune to mental game issues – far from it. I saw plenty of kinks in my armor as I struggled in the final quarter of 2015. It’s one thing to read the material, but it’s an entirely different thing to actually complete all the work Tendler asks of his students and I think doing so can help me reach the next level of mental game superiority.

Maintain a 1.25 BB/HR win rate at the $8-$16 level

I finished last year with a 1.12 BB/HR win rate, which surpassed my goal of 1 BB/HR, but I spent the vast majority of 2015 hovering around 2 BB/HR, so I feel like a loftier win rate is pretty attainable. I was running at 2.1 BB/HR for 2015 as late as October before the last quarter disaster shaved an entire BB/HR off my win rate. While I think 2 BB/HR is probably unrealistic in this day and age – I experienced very few stretches of negative variance during the first three quarters of 2015 – I do think a 1.5 BB/HR rate is possible, so I’m going to shoot for somewhere in between that and my 2015 end result.

Reach a $30,000 bankroll

Considering how much money I’ve made playing poker since the start of 2011, it’s kind of absurd that I haven’t already achieved this, but when I consider that poker has been my primary source of income for a substantial portion of that time period and that my expenses have hovered around $3000/month, it makes a lot of sense. As I’ve noted in previous blogs, I’ve had difficulty building my bankroll despite the success I’ve enjoyed, but I started to see growth last year and now that my day job covers all our monthly expenses I think I could see substantial growth in 2016. In reality, this should be an easy goal to reach, but I settled on $30k because I’ve felt like that’s the magic number I’d need if I ever decided to move to Vegas and play full time. Honestly, I expect to smash this goal in 2016.

I’ll probably come up with more things I want to accomplish, but those are the goals I’ve written down so far for 2016. 2015 was quite easily the best year of my life. I spent 2011-2014 repairing the damage I had caused to my life over the previous six years while basically running in place in my poker career, grinding $4/$8 games almost exclusively, and struggling to take any serious steps forward. 2015 was an enormous step forward and I feel like it has set me up to achieve even bigger things in 2016, which I feel is destined to be, by far, my best poker year ever.

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, Poker Tournaments, professional gambling, professional poker | 2 Comments »

2015 Poker Year In Review

January 4, 2016

All in all, I’d have to consider 2015 the best year of my life. As far as gambling goes, it was my third best year ever, but I’ll get to that later. In my personal life, I had a lot of big things happen this past year: I married my beautiful, amazingly supportive wife, Dina, in May and then we moved out of Kitsap County across the Narrows Bridge to University Place in Tacoma in August. Shortly afterwards, I was hired to work at the Palace in Lakewood, where a slow day is when we only have four games going. This wasn’t just a great move for me concerning my day job, it was an absolutely essential move for me as a poker player. Sorry to say it, but there just isn’t a poker scene in Kitsap County anymore. Silverdale and Bremerton went from 3-4 rooms completely thriving during the poker boom of 2004-2007, to having three rooms within 5 miles of each other spreading multiple games at the same time as recently as 2010-2011, to having ONE poker room with ONE $4-$8 game – and maybe a second game for a few hours on peak nights, but more often than having a second game there was NO game after 11 PM in Kitsap County in 2015. You have to drive at least 30 minutes to find another option. Eventually, with a major assist from my wife wanting to be closer to her work and family, I found that option so attractive that I decided to cut out the commute altogether and just relocated. It was a decision that already has and will continue to let us realize a ton of growth. If you’re as sick of the Kitsap poker scene as I was, I have good news for you: people are still gambling in Pierce County and King County.

In addition to the overdue change of scenery, I also bid adieu to my last link to my 2010 DUI: the breathalyzer that had been installed in my car for the past 5+ years. Less than a week later, I got rid of my POS 2001 Pontiac Grand Am that I was driving into the ground and upgraded to a brand new 2016 Subaru Legacy. In fact, the only negative that remains from my past mistakes these days is a hospital bill for my emergency appendectomy I had in late 2008. With a balance of over $23,000 I simply have no intentions of ever paying it off. I still haven’t decided exactly how I’m going to tackle that issue, but since it is not on my credit report and doesn’t really affect my livelihood, it’s not really that imposing of a storm cloud.

Now back to poker. Technically speaking, 2015 was only my third best year of my poker career – in 2005, I had an absurd three month stretch that convinced me to play professionally and make all sorts of terrible decisions in my life that would lead to a downward spiral I wouldn’t really start to recover from until 2011; and I had a breakout year in 2012 where everything finally started to click – but it was quite easily my best year in terms of giving myself the cushion that will be needed to play for a living some day and continue laddering up the stakes. My new day job has finally allowed me to handle our monthly expenses without having to use any money I win gambling, so all my profits from playing poker are now entirely invested in our future.

As far as my actual 2015 goals are concerned, these are the goals I set for myself and how well I succeeded at achieving them:

I had a bunch of mental game goals for 2015, including: studying away from the table, profiling players at the table, improving my c-game, focus on how well I’m playing and my emotional control instead of focusing on results, taking notes throughout my sessions, studing opponents in tournaments to find mistakes and exploit them, and taking my time in critical pots. If I’m being honest with myself, I feel like I started out really strong in staying on point with these goals, but as I smashed the $8-$16 game all throughout the spring and deep into the fall, I got lazy and, possibly, – *gasp* – overconfident. I certainly stopped profiling players and I stopped taking notes of all the hands I played, and I can think of a few big pots in tournaments where I really didn’t think things through enough and made big, tournament-costing mistakes. Definitely not a great success here, but I’m way better at handling variance than I used to be. Perhaps the best stat that shows just how much growth I’ve made in this department is this one: in 2015, my main game was the $8-$16 at the Palace and, overall, I played 93 sessions totaling 701 hours for an average session length of 7.53 hours. What that number means is that I’m basically never quitting a session because I’m running bad. There may have been a time or two I should have, but most of the time, I powered through and, quite frequently, I’d limit the damage or even book a win in a session where I would’ve left a big loser in the past. It’s all about the long run and that’s a concept I seem to fully understand now.

I also had goals to spend less than 20% of my live hours in $4-$8 games, play 750 total live hours, and play at least 100 hours of no limit cash games. I smashed my 750 hour goal by playing 1487 total hours, including tournament play. I only spent 18.8% of my total cash game hours in $4-$8 games and over half of those hours were as the floorman propping the game at my old job. At this point, I think it’s safe to say that the $4-$8 limit is a thing of my past. I did not play 100 hours of no limit cash. I only played 40 hours… over 12 sessions. So not only am I not putting in the sessions, but the ones I do play are super short. I played three reasonably long Super Sundays at Muckleshoot before I started working on Sundays, but other than that, I was in and out of any no limit game I played this past year.

I did play 2-3 events at the 2015 WSOP – two WSOP events and two daily tournaments – and went 0 for 4, to bring my career total at the Rio during the WSOP to 0 for 9. I did not play a tournament series in a city I’ve never been to before but I did set a new career high tournament score with my third place finish in the 08 event at the Wildhorse Fall Round Up in Pendleton, Oregon.

I spent most of my poker playing time in the $8-$16 game, where I exceeded my goal of 1 BB/HR by maintaining a 1.12 BB/HR win rate over a significant sample size, despite a monstrous downswing from early October to late December.

My five biggest $8-$16 wins were: +$2230, +$1835, +$1697, +$1360, +$1246.
My five biggest losses: -$1847, -$1238, -$1166, -$1081, -$896.

I had a 0.48 BB/HR win rate at $4/$8 with my top 5 wins being: +$616, +$499, +$456, +$441, +$425.

I played 151 hours of Omaha 8 for a whopping $478 profit despite a -0.29 BB/HR win rate (I hit and ran the $20-$40 at the WSOP pretty good).

I played 93.5 hours above the $8/$16 level and maintained a 0.46 BB/HR win rate. Most of those hours were in the $10/$20 O8 game at Clearwater where I basically broke even (-$34) and almost all of that win rate resulted from smashing the $20/$40 O8 at the Rio for an hour and having a good $15/$30 Razz session a few days later. Basically none of these stats are meaningful – due to lack of sample size – although I do feel like my O8 game could needs work. I see no reason for me not to be a 1 BB/HR player in most O8 game in the United States – it just seems so attainable.

My best location was the Palace by a mile. My worst location for 2015 was Diamond Lils and I only played one $8/$16 session there and it didn’t even crack my top five worst that I listed above. I posted a profit for the year on every single day of the week, with my best day being Saturdays by a long shot and my worst day being Fridays, which is a bit bewildering to me (note: after digging deeper, I discovered that my average session length on Fridays was less than 5.5 hours, which leaves me vulnerable to quite a bit of short term variance – it’s no mystery why my shortest sessions are far less profitable than my longest ones). I only had two losing months for the year and the worst month was in April and I only lost $289, so all in all, 2015 was a consistently very good year.

I played in 48 tournaments, cashed in 8 of them (16%), for a 25% ROI. My average buy in $183, which is a significant increase over years past. I’ve never had a losing year of tournament poker – even when I deep into the misery of alcoholism – but a week into November I was down multiple thousands in tournament buy ins before clutching up for that third place O8 finish at the Fall Round Up that put me squarely in the black for the year. I also won the weekly H.O.R.S.E. tournament at The Orleans in Vegas in June and cashed two of the major Muckleshoot events this year, but if I said I was satisfied with my tournament performance over the past couple years, I’d be lying. I know I can do better and I know I will. That’s the thing about tournaments – when you make a mistake, it can cost you your tournament life or cripple you and you have to wait til the next event to plug that leak. Hopefully I’ve ironed out enough leaks that I’m in store for a monster 2016!

I was going to post my 2016 poker goals in this blog, but I will do that in the next couple days. Good night!

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, limit hold em, no limit hold em, poker, poker strategy, professional gambling, professional poker, texas hold em | 2 Comments »

Wildhorse Fall Round Up 2015 Results

November 24, 2015

First off, I have to say that I’m quite pleased with my performance at the Fall Round Up last week. It was my first undeniably successful trip to Pendleton. Even taking expenses and time off work into consideration, I still managed to turn a hefty profit. I have previously cashed in the Main Event twice, cashed some other tournaments, and done okay in the cash games, but whatever meager profits I’ve managed to accumulate would always be wiped out by expenses. I’ve never experienced that 5-6 hour drive home with anything but bitter disappointment in my head. I think my first trip to Pendleton I lost my entire bankroll… To Cherish Andrews… who’s now a well known enough pro to get invited to Poker Night In America. On a separate trip, I had the worst 4/8 session of my career by a large margin. So booking a solid win was a nice change of pace and Wildhorse went from possibly being my worst all-time casino to becoming my second most profitable location in 2015.

In a nutshell, I did extremely well in the tournaments even though my end results weren’t exactly amazing. I showed up 45 minutes late to the Omaha 8 event after driving for 5 hours straight and I didn’t bust out of that tournament until there were three people left and I had a $5764 score in the books before I had even unpacked my car. So I was able to immediately cross two things off my goal list by setting a new career high for a tournament score and by making a Round Up final table. Clearly, a great start to my trip.

Still, this Omaha tournament was a testament to how influential variance can be in tournament poker. There was a moment with two tables left, when we were already in the money, where I got scooped by an unlucky river card and I felt like my final table chances were all but finished. And then I went on a Joe McKeehan-like heater and entered the final table with the undeniable chip lead. It was a testament to the concept of never getting discouraged because good things can always happen. I stayed hot at the final table, knocking out multiple players and by the time we were down to three, myself and the other big stack had 80% of the chips in play. It looked like a guaranteed payday of $7000+ and a chance to play Steve Stencil, #2 on the Round Up’s all-time winner’s list, heads up for my first bracelet and a shot at a $10K score. And then variance struck again: I opened on the button with AK62 and the small stack raised me and we got four bets in preflop before getting the rest of it in on the K76 rainbow flop. I had two pair with the nut low draw; he had AQJT for… nothing. No pair, no flush draw, no low draw, NOTHING! Obviously he was committing himself preflop, so he had to go with it, but it’s hard to imagine a hand I could have more crushed than his… and then a 9 hit the turn for a sweat… and then the Jack on the river gave him the nut straight with no low on board for the scoop and the full double up. I never recovered from that hand and busted third while that kid went on to win the tournament. As they say, that’s poker.

I finished 19th in the H.O.R.S.E. tournament the next day, but only 16 players cashed. While bubbling may sound brutal, I never really had any momentum in this tournament – it was a grind the whole way as I was somehow able to take a stack that was never above average and almost crack the money. My starting table in this tournament was amazing and full of terrible play, but I was never able to take advantage of it.

After taking a day off tournaments for a successful session in the $10/$20 Omaha 8 game, my first NLHE tournament of the series looked to be a thing of destiny. I was running absurdly hot. Every break I had more than twice as many chips as the last break. At dinner, with about 55 people left, I likely had the tournament chip lead. My buddy Vince was telling me how he had one big pair the whole tournament. I had already had Aces four times and I had KK-TT maybe 8 times total and they were all holding up. My big pot to that point, I had flatted the second big stack at the table with AA on the button and we got to see a K97 with two spades flop heads up. He made a strong bet into me and I decided this wasn’t the kind of board I wanted to let him barrel into, so I raised him on the flop and he jammed it on me. It gave me pause because he had a ton of chips, but since my hand was so disguised and the player was aggressive, I didn’t think about it too long before sticking my stack in there. Fortunately, he had AK and my hand held and I turned my above average stack into a monster stack.

And then I did something stupid. A new player had arrived at the table, two to my left, and he was already giving me problems. I had already lost three small pots to him and we had built up a history of him playing aggressively and me giving up routinely. So when he made a small raise from early position and it folded around to me in the big blind, I decided to take the attractive pot odds and see a flop with the K6o. The flop came all clubs and I had the K of clubs and I decided to continue taking a passive line against this overly aggressive opponent and planned to throw him some rope if I turned a king high flush… which I did. I check-called a decent sized bet on the turn and I made it look like I was strongly considering folding because a) I wanted him to keep betting and b) if he did happen to have the Ac I didn’t want him to think he could get maximum value from me. Unfortunately, when I checked the river, he jammed on me for more than a pot-sized bet of 36K. It’s a great move. It polarizes his range into either a) I have the nuts or b) I am bluffing – and given our brief history so far, my image of him was that he was totally capable of shoving the river with air to try to get me to fold a flush. Even though the river shove was for more than half of my remaining stack, I didn’t give it a ton of thought on the river because when you try to manipulate an opponent into doing something and then they do it, you probably shouldn’t second guess yourself. Unfortunately, in this case, he did have the ace of clubs. Although I think my postflop line is fine and that, against this villain, I will win a monster pot on the river picking off his bluff a good portion of the time, I’m having a hard time forgiving myself for defending the hand in the first place. I have K6 offsuit, out of position, against a good LAG with a big stack. Is this really a spot where I want to put my big stack at risk? Playing the guessing game against a good player? It’s one seemingly small error that lead to a huge loss.

A few hands later, I called an 11 big blind shove with AQ and lost a race to 66 and suddenly I had a below average stack. Just like that. My momentum never picked up again and eventually I jammed a small pair into Aces and somehow didn’t even make the money of a tournament I had the chip lead in at dinner. Gross. However, any time you can learn from your mistakes is a chance to improve and get better and next time I have a huge stack in the late stages of a tournament, I’ll remember to be a bit wiser about the spots I pick to get involved in.

I made the dinner break of both the $330 NLHE event and the Main Event, but never really got the ball rolling in either tournament. I just kept grinding in both events waiting for something good to happen and the rush never arrived.

I wrapped up my series by dominating the Last Chance Turbo event until I lost a huge chunk of chips 10 off the money with AQ to KK against an opponent that was showing a very wide jamming range. I did manage to quadruple up when I was down to less than two blinds and found a way to get another cash for the series, ultimately finishing in 16th place.

All in all, I cashed 2 of 6 events, made a final table, secured my biggest cash ever, made the dinner break in every tournament I played, and felt really good about my play overall. Having made deep cashes in the last two Muckleshoot Classic series and now making a Round Up final table, I feel like it’s only a matter of time before I really arrive with a huge win.

Now if I could just figure out how to beat that 8/16 game again!

Posted in poker | Tagged gambling, limit hold em, muckleshoot, no limit hold em, oregon, pendleton, poker, seattle poker, tournament poker, wildhorse casino | 2 Comments »

The Bat Cave