Posts Tagged ‘Poker Tournaments’

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Little Creek South Sound Championship $340 No Limit Hold’em Main Event – A Final Table Run!

March 11, 2018

This tournament kind of snuck up on me. The South Sound Championship series at Little Creek isn’t exactly on my radar. The preliminary events aren’t that attractive and the weak field sizes don’t really make them worth playing. You typically have to final table to make the money and probably have to finish top 3 to feel really good about it. Well, at least I would.

The Main Event is a little different though. I don’t play it every time it comes around – mostly because I forget about it – but it’s decent enough. I actually took 4th in this event back in spring of 2014 and that was a career high score for me at the time. I think I cashed for a little over $4K. 20K in starting chips for $340, 45 minute levels and the level jumps are tolerable. There’s definitely some play in it. Also, the fields at Little Creek are insanely soft. Overall, the play is surprisingly passive and pretty straight forward. There are some guys that can play and put pressure on you, but they are the Puget Sound rounders, not the locals. Most of the Shelton area players are really easy to play against. That makes this event with a deeper structure attractive even though the field size is kind of ho hum. There were 92 entrants in this one and that paid the final table only.

One annoying feature of the Little Creek tourneys is that they are 10-handed. How is this still a thing in 2018? Just brutal. 10-handed poker sucks period, but feeling crowded the whole time you’re playing makes it so much worse. And this isn’t a temporary thing. You have to suffer all day long, even at the final table.

I only had one player I’m familiar with at my starting table. The highly unorthodox, extremely talky, and slightly obnoxious Puget Sound superstar known as Flex. I actually wrote about Flex in a very unflattering light (I believe I called him “Loudmouth”) in one of my first tournament write-ups back in 2012. Oh hell, I’ll go ahead and link it even though it’s somewhat embarrassing for myself as well: Freddie’s $110 Deep Stack. It’s worth noting this was over six years ago and propping $4/$8 limit hold’em was my only job at the time. So… fair warning! Anyways, having Flex at the table isn’t a great thing. He is capable of making things difficult for you and drastically increasing your variance in a field that otherwise doesn’t require much risk early on. It also means you could double up early, so there’s that!

Levels 1-2

Blinds 25/50, there’s a raise to 150 and I defend T6hh from the big blind. Four of us see the QJ8 with two hearts flop. I end up calling 300 on the flop and all four of us are still in. My draw is pretty big, but this isn’t the board texture I expect to get folds on, so jacking it up here just bloats the pot out of position when I haven’t made anything yet. The turn bricks and I have to call another 600. I think we are heads up at this point and the small blind has been the aggressor the whole time and he checks when the river is a 9 and I make my straight. I bet 1500 and he pays it off.

Blinds 25/50, I call 150 from the cutoff with KQo with multiple players in already. The flop is Q52 with two hearts and one diamond. There are six of us in and Flex leads out for 500 (after PFR checks), player to my right makes it 1000, and I immediately have the instinct that I want to raise. That’s odd because raising seems like the worst of my options in this spot most of the time. I push this thought aside and decide to just call and see what happens. Everyone else folds and Flex calls also. The turn is the 9d and both players check to me. I do not believe this is any sort of trap and I’m not really surprised by this action considering my instincts that neither player seemed strong on the flop. I bet 1700. Flex calls and the player that raised the flop snap folds. Yup. With that said, I don’t expect to get paid off on many rivers, so I will be checking back a lot of cards. The Kd on the river is an interesting one, but before I can think too long about what I’m going to do, Flex fires out a healthy bet of 7500. There is a key piece of missing information that makes this not a snap call. I don’t have the Qd and the Qd was not on the flop. If Flex has a queen, which seems likely, then he has the Qd half of the time and it makes a lot of sense that he just went running diamonds. In fact, it makes so much sense that this might actually be a clear fold. The only other logical hand I lose to is JT of hearts. It’s also hard to come up with hands he could be bluffing with. A4hh? A3hh? 43hh? Other missed heart draws? QJo? QTo? I don’t think so. Sometimes I think I’m taking up too much time in spots that actually probably require a bit more thinking. In retrospect, all things considered – especially the bet sizing – this seems like a pretty easy fold, but in real time, I decided to pay it off even though I called out his hand before he showed it to me: queen high flush.

There was another hand at the 50/100 level where Flex had limped in under the gun, there were two other limps and I made it 600 to go with AK and Flex ends up beating me with J7o on AJ67x, making two pair and getting another healthy river bet from me. As I said, he’s sticky and drastically increases your variance. On the bright side, I decided to pot control turn and check back.

Still, after the first two levels I had 7700, which means I had lost over 60% of my stack already and was wondering if I should punt the rest of it and rebuy if I didn’t chip up early in L3 (the last level to rebuy).

Levels 3-4

Blinds 75/150, I defend J4cc from the big blind for 400. Three of us see the A84 with two club flop. I check, the next guy donks 700 into Flex (the PFR) and he calls. I started the hand with about 10K I think and, again, I don’t expect anyone to fold on the flop and I have too many chips to want to get them all in right now. I call. The turn is a 7 and I check again, the next guy bets 1000 and Flex makes it 4500. I actually give some thought to making a mathematically incorrect call here. If I make my flush on the river, I can’t imagine that Flex will be able to fold with such favorable pot odds, so I could feasibly call here and fold when I brick and probably double up when I make flushes and maybe trips. It’s 100% a bad play, but there is appeal to gambling to double up since I have a half stack and if I miss I’ll be that much closer to rebuying for a fresh stack. I ultimately decide to make the prudent play of laying it down though and so does the other player and Flex shows us both the A7.

Blinds 100/200, I open to 500 with A9 of spades and only the big blind defends. Flop is 762 with two spades and the big blind check-calls 500. The turn pairs the 2 and I decide to keep barreling and bet 1200. He calls again. Sigh. I guess I have to get there. Oh, hello 3 of spades! He checks and I have 5500 and really think if he has anything he’s going to call jam, so I stuff and he does call… with 75o and I double up to 15.5K. We’re healthy again!

Blinds 100/200, someone opens to 600, Flex calls, and I make a very loose defend with 96o. Flop is J65, I check, PFR bets 1200, and Flex folds. I think this is a standard peel. I bink the 9 on the turn, check, he bets 2100 and I make a somewhat hefty raise to 7200, he stuffs it and I snap call. He tables AA and I hold to double up to 37K. Hey, loose preflop call justified! You cooler these people when they have big pairs and they are not folding.

Levels 5-6

Blinds 200/400, someone min-raises to 800 and I call with 33 in position. Flop is 742 and he checks to me. I bet 1300 and he calls. Turn is a jack and he checks again. I already ran this hand by someone else because I ended up hating it. He has done nothing in this hand to make me think he has anything at all, so I feel like betting again here is best. I bet 2200 and he raises me to 7500. And then he proceeds to stare daggers at me. I take my sweet time with this decision and whenever I look at him, he is staring me down, not breaking eye contact. This, plus his two checks and extremely narrow value range (sets? KK, AA?), has me thinking I have the best hand and that he probably wants me to fold. I noted that we were 20K effective and this is basically a decision for his stack size. I ultimately decide this is the kind of high variance spot I’m trying to avoid in this field and make the fold, but I hated it. When I ran this by a friend he suggested checking back turn and possibly calling rivers. I countered that it seems better for me to set my own bet size on the turn while protecting my weak hand and check back rivers than it is to check turn and let him set the bet size on the river and have to play more of a guessing game. Oh well.

Blinds 300/600, I open to 1500 with TT and call a ~9k jam and hold vs AK.

Blinds 300/600, four callers and I check 92o from the big blind. The flop is K92 with two hearts and a diamond and I lead out for 1300 and get two callers. The turn is a very safe 5d and I bet 5000. The next player goes to call with a 5K chip and accidentally drops two of them into the pot, effective min-raising me to 10K. The other player folds and it’s back to me. I do believe it was an accident, but I’m also not in love with the situation. I decide to play it safe and just call. The river is the Qd, which is not a great card for me and I’m pretty happy to see him check back and my two pair holds vs KT.

Blinds 300/600, I open to 1600 with AJhh and only the big blind calls. Flop is T63 with one heart and we both check. The turn is the 2s and I call 2200. River pairs the 6 and he fires out 2600. This is the guy that was staring daggers at me earlier and this spot is much less pressure and I’m getting the same live read and basically snap call this time. He shows A9ss and I win the pot.

I have 68K after six levels on the third break of the day.

Level 7

Blinds 400/800, someone jams 5400 and I call with JJ, but wind up losing to his AJ.

Blinds 400/800, someone opens to 1700, there’s a call, and I make it 4800 with AA. The opener jams for 11K and the other player is pretty deep behind with me and goes into the tank. For the briefest of moments, I actually think he’s going to jam, but he ultimately winds up folding. I snap call and the all in tables… AA. What. The player that folded audibly winces when a ten spikes the river and claims he folded pocket tens. Considering how much time he took and that he looked like he might jam, I believed him. What a dodge! I end up splitting with the other aces.

Another player familiar to me is at my table now, a long time frenemy that I named after Batman villain Solomon Grundy a long time ago because, well, there’s a resemblance. I’ve been crossing paths with Solomon Grundy for years now and he pops into my cash games once in a while but I almost always see him in the bigger local tournaments and even sometimes on the road.

Once upon a time, I sat in a $5/$10 no limit hold’em cash game at Little Creek, thinking it was just a $3/$5 game and ended up selling action to my wife (back when she was my girlfriend and we didn’t share money yet) when I realized I was playing in a bigger game. I was a $4/$8 limit player at the time and didn’t play much no limit and certainly didn’t play it at this level (and never have again), so I was far out of my comfort zone. Anyways, Solomon Grundy was in this game and I will never forget the pain of getting all $800 I had in front of me in the middle with KK and seeing him table AA. It broke my heart and crushed my soul at the time. Losing $800 was a lot to me back then and having it all happen in one hand was stunning.

Well, I bring Solomon up because he opens the button to 3k here with blinds still at 400/800 and I look down at 99 in the small blind. He has about 16K behind and his sizing is quite big, so I decide that I’m just going to have to embrace the variance of this spot and play for stacks. I 3-bet to 10K because the big blind was deep with me, but he folds and Grundy stuffs the rest of his stack in. I snap and he tables 77 and I win a big pot and wish him well.

Blinds 400/800, very next hand and I’m on the button now and open to 2200 with AJo. I have two very capable and aggressive players in the blinds, so I don’t expect to get folds very often and I will be continuing if the SB 3-bets and probably getting it in against the BB’s stack size. Only the big defends and the flop comes down A84 with two diamonds. He check-calls 2700 on the flop and then check-calls 6000 when the 4 pairs on the turn. The river is a queen and he has about 10K behind and checks. I don’t see much upside to betting here since I’m chopping with all the aces I was beating now and it’s hard to imagine him calling with worse. I check back and win and after he makes a comment about “how does he have an ace on the button after winning a big pot?” and I wonder if jamming river actually makes perfect sense because of the metagame dynamics.

87.4K on dinner break.

Levels 8-9

Blinds 600/1200, I defend K8hh for 3000. Flop is KQ8 all clubs. Not excited to play a huge pot here, so I check-call 5500 on the flop and then we both check when the turn brings the four card flush in. The river is a blank and he sizes super small at 5200 and I pay it off.

Blinds 600/1200, one limper, button makes it 3100, and I have AKcc in the big blind. Button has been playing rather snug and we are both deep, so I elect to take the lower variance line of just flatting and taking a flop and the other player comes along as well. Flop is A73 with two spades and I check-call 3500 and the other player overcalls. The turn is the 4s and since I expect to be ahead of the button’s range and am now highly vulnerable to spades on the river, I decide to lead out for 8500. I’m a little concerned about the limper, but I also realize my hand can look like a flush here, so I think it’s fine, even though my sizing is quite small. I am happy to see both players fold.

I open to 2800 with 33 and only the big blind defends. The flop is 942 with two diamonds and he donks a hefty 6k. He has about 18k behind and his flop sizing is big, so this is a really weird spot. Still, it seems way too weak-passive to just fold flop. How often is he leading out big with strong hands? Instead of making sure I put a c-bet in first? I flat. The turn pairs the 9, which I love, but he jams for 18k, which I don’t love. This is a tough spot and I spent a long time in the tank thinking about it and came quite close to folding. Ultimately, his line didn’t make much sense to me and he did not seem comfortable at all. I was quite sure he was bluffing. My main dilemma was if he was bluffing with hands I lose to, like 4x of diamonds or 55 maybe. Since losing this pot wasn’t going to cripple me and I thought he was full of crap, I made the call and he tables A8o and bricks the river and I ship a sexy pot, leaving the rest of the table in legit shock.

Blinds 600/1200, I open to 2800 with JJ and the sticky, solid player on my direct left calls. We are heads up to AT8. Here’s the thing, I expect this guy to continue on this board texture a lot of the time and that is going to make things difficult for me if I’m the aggressor. I also expect him to bet worse hands a lot when I check and checking would be my go to line when I have hands like AK or AQ here. We both check the flop. The turn is a 9 and since I’m never bet-folding this card and I showed weakness on the flop, I think check-calling is best here. I check-call 3000. The river pairs the 8 and I am quite happy to check-call 5000, expecting to win this pot almost all the time. I don’t think he has an ace and I’m blocking straights pretty hard. Unfortunately, he shows me the 87o for trips.

I’ve been jotting my hands down all day and after that hand, as I’m typing stuff on my phone, he asks “are you writing down that I’m a donkey” and I say, “no, I wrote that down a long time ago,” which got a solid laugh out of him. We banter a little more and then he says something about “let’s just take their chips” motioning to the other players like we should just stay out of each other’s way and I’m like, “wait, what did you just call me with?”

Blinds 600/1200, I call 3100 with AJ on the button and we are heads up to KT9 flop with two clubs. I have the ace of clubs and peel for another 3100. The turn pairs the ten and he bets another 3100. I’m not sensing strength and I feel like that’s a better card for my range than it is for his, so I eventually pop him to 8500, expecting him to fold a lot. He calls though and the river double pairs the board with a 9 and I decide to give up. He shows K2 of clubs and I feel a little sick. First, that I didn’t consider 3-betting pre and second, because I didn’t put pressure on him on the river. I felt much less sick about this hand when I saw this guy pay off a turn bet and a massive river bet on a 98xQJ board with AJ a short while later (his opponent had 97). I’m pretty sure I saved chips on the river here.

Blinds 600/1200, my notes say I opened to 3500 with QQ here. That seems strange. Maybe there was a limper or I must have had some other reason to increase my sizing. Anyways, I end up getting called in three spots. The flop comes down 873 with two hearts and the big blind just donk-jams 25k. I call, the others fold, and he tables 98o. Just a total overjam spazz with a weak top pair hand. Unfortunately, his suicide attempt gets a safe landing when a 9 spikes the turn and I can’t counterfeit him on the river. The first hand of the tournament that made me truly nauseous.

Blinds 1000/2000, dealer accidentally gives the small blind a third card and the SB has it set to the side, not touching his actual hand and says “it’s this one.” Meanwhile, I’m looking down at KK in middle position, sweating the situation. The dealer calls it a fucking misdeal. Jesus, we know what card is the burn, buddy, wtf are you doing? I’m tempted to say he should call the floor, but I think that reveals my hand strength anyway, so whatever. It’s a misdeal. So gross and unnecessary.

Levels 10-11

Blinds 1200/2400, we have some bad note taking here. It says someone opens to 5000 and I make it 14k with a 60k stack and he calls. Flop is ten high and I c-bet 16k and he folds. What I didn’t list was my actual hand. I believe I had QQ.

Blinds 1200/2400, I open 6k with AA, big blind defends and folds to a c-bet and I am peaking again with 19 players left.

Blinds 1200/2400, I open 6k with AQhh and big blind defends. I bet 8500 on Q62 two spade flop and he check-raises to 28.5k, leaving himself with ~14k behind. I jam and he snaps with Q5 and I hold and bust him. Peaking!

Blinds 1200/2400, it folds to the small blind and he says “5 more” and then tosses out a single 5K chip. Dealer rules it a raise to 7400, which is 5000 more than the big blind. I’m sitting there with K7o and I’m not really liking what’s going on here. I’m not even sure saying “5 more” and throwing in a single oversized chip is a raise, and if it is, it almost certainly is a raise to 6200 and not to 7400. But whatever. I try not to be “that guy” if I can and don’t say anything. I call. The flop is 742 and the small blind hardly even looks at the flop before betting 12k. Since he is giving off such strong physical tells, I think calling and letting him continue to bluff (or folding if his demeanor changes) makes more sense than raising. Turn is a 3 and again he puts zero thought into the situation and bets 16k. Easiest call of my life. The river is a 6 and since I think my hand is good 98% of the time here and that he probably can’t call anything on this run out, I check back and win vs AK.

I now have 190k with 17 players left and average stack is 108k.

Blinds 1500/3000, I open to 7500 with KQo and someone jams to 33.4K. Easy call. He tables QJss and spikes a jack to double through me.

Blinds 1500/3000, someone opens to 7500, there’s a call, and I decide to call with KQo. Four of us see a king high flop and after the opener checks, the first call jams for ~42k total. Can’t really call with KQ pre and fold here, so I make the call and the other players fold. He tables AK and I get super lucky by spiking a queen on the turn, winning a huge pot, and busting a player. I am peaking again at just under 200k.

Blinds 2000/4000, I open to 10k with 99 and the sticky player on my left makes the call. The flop is K72 with two spades. I would pretty much always c-bet this flop texture, so I bet 14.5k and he calls. Turn pairs the king and also brings a third spade. We both check. The river is a 7, which I actually hate because this guy has proven he’s capable of having 7x hands in his range. I check again and he bets 30k. Kind of a tough spot here. What am I really beating with that he can call on the flop with? Small pairs only really. Unfortunately, he would now have to bluff with those hands. But really, it’s a pretty small range: 66-33. He would almost certainly check back with 88. Anything else he can have, I am probably losing to, unless he’s on a weird airball. Again, seems like an easy fold in retrospect, but I called and he shows KJ.

That dips me below average with 12 players left. I have 125k and average is 141k.

Blinds 2000/4000, I open to 11k with AJ and call a 40k jam and bust a player holding KT. Down to 11 and on the money bubble.

Blinds 2000/4000, button opens to 10k and I make it 40k from the small blind with QQ. I am quite surprised to see him call. Flop is 886 with two diamonds. There is 84k plus antes in the pot and he has about 125k behind. The board texture isn’t super wet, so I can probably get away with betting something like 33-40% pot here, but I decide I don’t want to do any guessing if bad turns come. I just put him all in and put max pressure on him. We are on the stone bubble, so I’m actually surprised when he starts thinking about it and when he ends up tanking for a very long time, it dawns on me that he has a real hand. A pair. I want him to call. He does. Tables JJ. Turn blank. River blank! He’s out! And I basically get a full double as we move to the final table and into the money.

In fact, I start the final table with 350k, which is either the chip lead or close to it, and the average stack is 184k.

A look at the prize pool:

10th – $608
9th – $608
8th – $1065
7th – $1220
6th – $1520
5th – $2130
4th – $2890
3rd – $4560
2nd – $6235
1st – $9580

In other words, the payouts are brutally flat. There is a bigger jump from 9th to 8th than from 7th to 6th and all the jumps are pretty insignificant until four players left. At this point, I am going to be disappointed with anything less than 4th place, I think.

Blinds 3000/6000, I open to 16k with AJ and the big blind defends. Flop is AJ9 one spade and he check-calls 18k quite quickly. He checks-calls 40k very fast on the Ts turn also. River is the 6s, which brings in a backdoor flush, but I have the ace of spades and the jack of spades is on the board, so I’m not concerned about a running flush and he has shown such an eagerness to call that I go for it all on the river and put him all in for his remaining 150k. Unfortunately, he mucks it. Still a nice pot for me to start the final table.

Blinds 3000/6000, folds to me in small blind with AJ. Big blind is nitty and has about 12 big blinds. Easy jam. He snaps and rolls QQ. Sigh. He holds and I double him up. 370k with 8 left.

Blinds 3000/6000, I open to 14k and the button calls. Flop is AKJ and I think this is a good board to pot control. I check-call 25k. Turn is a blank and I check-call 25k again. I’m very unconcerned about my hand with his bet sizing. River bricks again, I check, he bets 30k and I snap. He rolls KQ and I’m good.

Blinds 3000/6000, folds to me on the button and I have A5o. The small blind has a decent-sized stack and plays too tight to play for stacks with him, but the big blinds started with 40k and I’ll definitely get it in with him. I open to 16k and only the big blind calls, which is really strange considering his stack size. Flop is 775 and he open-jams. Snap call. He tables AT and I hold and bust him.

I am now peaking near 500k with 7 left and am totally set up to ship this whole thing.

Blinds 3000/6000, one limper, I make it 20k with AJ and he calls. Flop is QJ5 and he donks 50k. Did I say I was set up to win this thing? Hold that thought. Can I possibly fold AJ here? It is atypical to donk good hands into the PFR so the line is toying with me. But the fact that I am thinking about folding it means that my instincts are telling me something is different here. Sigh. I don’t listen to them. I decide my hand is too good to fold on the flop and if I’m not folding on the flop, then it’s hard to imagine folding ever given his stack size, so I jam. He snaps with QT and I dust off an extra 125k to him.

Blinds 4000/8000, and I’m about to make another misstep. I open to 20k with 55 and the nitty player on my left jams for ~100k. If I asked myself before the hand if I was willing to get 100k in pre against this player before I opened the answer would have been “no.” The problem is, this guy is so tight, I feel like he’s folding roughly 85% of the time. Maybe more. Since he’s almost certainly jamming AK and AQ and probably some more unpaired hands, I have to call and I end up doubling him again when his AA holds up. I actually did flop a one card four flush, but nope!

Blinds 4000/8000, I open to 22k with T9 of clubs. I am increasing my opening sizing when the sticky player that was on my left earlier is in the blinds. He calls and the flop is AAK. He checks to me and I size way down at 15k to make it look like I’m itching for a call and he folds 77 face up.

Blinds 4000/8000, I open to 23k with 44 and only the small blind calls. Flop is K76 all spades and we both check. Turn is 4d, giving me a set and he checks to me again. He has somewhere between 70k-80k and with the pot size at around 60k, I just go ahead and put him in. He then flashes me the ace of spades and a 7… and mucks. Wow. What a flop check by me and what a turn.

Blinds 6000/12000, I open to 30k with QT suited and the nit on my left jams for 85k. Goddammit. I call. He has KK and doubles through me for the third time. UGHHHHHHHHHHH.

That puts me down to 178k and the sticky, good player has all the chips now and proposes a deal. He offers us all $3500 each and he gets the rest (which is a little over $7k). I have about 15 bigs, which is either the shortest stack or the second shortest, and the second biggest stack probably doesn’t even have 22 bigs. The next player out gets $1220 and we are going to have to finish in at least 3rd to get more than $3500. I don’t particularly want to make a deal, but I have zero leverage, and neither does anyone else really. Still, I stay silent and let everyone else talk it out. I am fine playing. Absolutely fine. But if everyone else agrees, I think I have to take the deal. The reality is, the six of us are all very close to push/fold stacks and I might be the only one that actually realizes that and will play accordingly. Also, the payout structure is so flat that surviving and laddering up isn’t overwhelmingly appealing. They all eventually agree to the deal and I begrudgingly agree as well. Can’t be too upset about a $3500 return on a $340 investment, but the competitor in me was a little sad. The competitor in me also would have been pissed if I was the next person out for $1220, so….

A nice little score that gets me almost even in live tournaments for the year.

I have six more possible events in the Muckleshoot Spring Classic over the next week and after typing 5000+ words in this post, I will definitely not be posting play-by-play blogs for each event! Heck no. But I will keep you guys updated.

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2018 Poker Goals

March 8, 2018

Sorry, this is way overdue, but better late than never! My playing schedule is going to be very tournament heavy over the next couple weeks. I will be playing $15/$30 today and tomorrow at Palace, but I’ll be heading to Little Creek Casino for their $340 No Limit Hold’em Main Event on Saturday. I have an online fantasy baseball draft on Sunday night, so I’ll probably just take the day off or play on Global that day, then back to Palace for a $15/$30 Marathon Monday session. Tuesday will be an off day and then Wednesday is the first day of the Muckleshoot Spring Classic series. They have events every day, Wednesday through Sunday, and I sold action to all of them, so that’s my tentative plan for next week. I typically skip the $500 on Saturday if I’m not in the running for Player of the Series (which I never am) so that I can be rested up for the $750 Main Event the next day instead. I have multiple cashes in the Main Event of this series over the last several years, but I have zero final tables and I think only one or two cashes in preliminary events. My phone data goes back to August of 2014 and Muckleshoot has been my worst location during that stretch. I have 0 cashes in the last 11 Classic events I’ve played, so I’m looking to break a cold stretch and finally do something big in this series. I’m way overdue! I will take notes and try to make posts at the end of the day, but that’s something that is much easier to do when I’m on the road by myself than when I’m at home with my wife.

Now onto the goals!

Volume Goals

-play 1800 live hours
-play less than 33% of live cash game hours at $8/$16 or lower
-play 500 hours of PLO (online and live)
-play one mixed game session a month (house games)
-take more shots
-play at least one online tournament a week
-play a bigger WSOP schedule
-play 100 hours of NLHE cash (online and live)

Comments:

1800 total live hours is 150 hours a month which should be easily attainable and if you’ve been following my blog, you know I’m on pace to crush that number.

Playing 67% of my cash game volume at $10/$20 or higher seemed problematic a few short weeks ago, but $15/$30 has been going basically every day at Palace and this should be another goal I will demolish. I was mostly an $8/$16 player for the last three years, but this year I will be playing almost entirely red chip games.

With online play, 500 hours of PLO should be a number I will hit, but my real goal here is to play more in live PLO cash games, particularly when I’m traveling out of state. Even locally, I wouldn’t say I’ve been committed to playing PLO. I average about two sessions a month and I went three months in a row without playing at all last year. I would like to add an Omaha 8 or Better goal but really the only place I go specifically to play O8 is The Orleans in Las Vegas, so it’s not something that comes up much and I only play it when I’m in Vegas if it wasn’t my priority for the day… meaning, I busted out of tournament and it’s 9 PM and I still want to play some poker, but with like zero pressure.

I want to play more mixed game poker this year, so that I’m fresh and ready come WSOP time. Ideally, I’d like to play a mixed game a couple times a month, but even 12 sessions in a year would be a big improvement over my past volume. I seem to play most of the games pretty well using mostly natural instincts and card sense, but I’d like to gain more actual experience.

When I say take more shots I mean in games I might not exactly be bankrolled for. For instance, I shouldn’t be such a nit when I’m in L.A. and Vegas and I should sit down in the $40/$80 games some of the time. A bad session isn’t going to crush me, but a great one could be huge. The concept of having a bankroll for a particular game assumes that you are playing that game regularly. Taking shots seems fine if I’m smart and careful about it. Also, I have some interest in playing the $100/$200 mix game at Muckleshoot, but I wouldn’t do so without taking on a partner or two. Hit me up if you’re interested!

On average, playing one tournament online a week is a piece of cake. When I do play online, I typically play 5-8 tournaments in a single night. This is to help keep me sharp for NLHE tournaments, which I very rarely play live.

My WSOP schedule has been increasing every year, but I’m ready to kick it up a few notches. I already have a room booked for May 30th through June 12th and that could cover up to seven WSOP events and I may wind up staying through – and playing – the Main Event. Certainly I will not be done with Vegas after June 12th. There are at least two more must play events on my schedule after that first trip. The most events I’ve played in a year was five in 2017 and it would be cool to at least double that number for 2018. In all likelihood, if I play the Main Event, I will be selling up to 90% of my action and I will probably need more assistance than my usual backing arrangement.

My weekly goal is 30 minutes of NL cash games online. This seems like the bare minimum practice I need. When I’m playing online though, I drastically prefer PLO and when I play live, it is incredibly rare for me to actually sit in a no limit cash game. 100 hours is way more than my actual weekly goal would add up to, but this is a skill set that I really need to start developing. I feel like I’m a fine NL cash game player, but I’m far from being an expert and I wouldn’t feel comfortable playing anything bigger than $3/$5.

Win Rate Goals

-$15/$30 LHE: 1.25 BB/HR
-$20/$40 LHE (and higher): 1 BB/HR
-$8/$16 LHE (and lower): 1.25 BB/HR
-$1/$3/$5 PLO: $50/HR
-Live PLO: 10 bb/HR
-$0.25/$0.50 6-max PLO: 1 bb/HR
-Online PLO: 5 bb/HR
-No Limit Hold Em: 10 bb/HR
-Live Tournaments: 50% ROI
-Online Tournaments: 30% ROI

*note: limit games are expressed as big bets per hour and no limit and plo are expressed as big blinds per hour

Comments:

First off, it’s not going to break my heart if I don’t meet some of these goal. My real goal is to play amazing poker all the time and hopefully the money comes my way. These numbers just seem like reasonable bench marks. For the non-LHE games, I probably won’t play enough hours for short-term variance not to have a dramatic affect on my final results. But still, I feel like this is where I would like to be at.

I imagine I will play more $15/$30 LHE than any other game this year. When I was sitting at $7/hour after 200 hours in the Palace $15/$30 (thanks mostly to High Hands and Jackpots), I thought a final goal of even 1 BB/HR might be a reach after such a rough start. But after making $11k in four days, my numbers look more like what I’m accustomed to and I think continuing to beat Palace LHE games for somewhere between 1.25 and 1.75 big bets per hour is plenty doable.

Bigger games are tougher, but last year I smashed my goal of 0.75 BB/HR at $20/$40 or higher. No reason I can’t do that again, but since $30/$60 happens at Palace a few times a month now, and I plan to take some shots in even bigger games, I’m going to temper my expectations for the time being.

As I noted earlier, I don’t expect to be playing much $8/$16 this year, so this could be a number that could see a lot of variance.

I won $100 an hour in the PLO game at Palace last year, but I’m positive that’s unsustainable. If I won even half that much an hour in 2018, that’s probably still smashing. I may have set this goal too high, but whatever. Shoot for the moon!

I listed the Palace game separately since it has a 1/3/5 structure. For all other games where you can limp for the price of the big blind, I think a 10 bb/hour goal is solid. Same can be said for no limit hold cash games.

My goal of 1 bb/hr for $0.25/$0.50 6-max PLO online is a joke. Considering I lost 26 bb/hr at this exact game last year, anything in the positive is a huge turnaround and I’ll take it. My results in full ring PLO games are basically the opposite. I don’t really know what I should be making at PLO online, but anything positive seems like a good start and somewhere between 5 and 10 bb/hr is probably a solid target.

I will come back to earth eventually with live tournaments and when I do, it will probably be to the tune of my first losing year of tournament poker ever. Even when I was an idiot alcoholic I never had a losing year in tournaments. But with my average buy-in increasing every year and a rather small sample size, posting a final score in the red is bound to happen.

My ROI in tournaments on Global Poker is currently 13%. My ROI in 755 online tournaments over the past 3+ years is -1%. Setting a goal of 30% here is actually kind of a big deal. But there are so many different players absolutely smashing the Global Poker tournaments that I refuse to believe I can’t drastically improve on my past performance. I can’t speak to my performance on sites before Global, but I do know my biggest reason for lack of success on Global is an abysmal performance in anything with a buy-in of $20 or higher. My average ROI is 83%, which is on par with the beasts on the site, but basically all my good fortune has happened in the smallest buy-ins.

Life Goals

-Reach a new bankroll peak
-clear credit card debt
-pay off final student loan
-visit a new MLB stadium
-play poker in a new part of the U.S.
-meditate every day
-do yoga twice a week
-run/jog more
-lift twice a week
-drink more water, drink less soda
-eat better and smarter, less fast food
-bring my average blood sugar below 150
-bring my A1C below 7
-less distractions
-no toxic chatting/arguing/debating
-keep blogging about poker
-read Jared Tendler’s books
-study mix games
-watch at least two vlogs a week
-read about mindfulness/meditation

Comments:

I had a very successful first year as a professional poker player, but my bankroll at the end of 2017 was actually smaller than it was when I quit my job. To be fair to myself, we did buy a house and I put more money down than I ever planned to and then we spent the first several months fixing up our new home and the costs piled. We also aggressively paid down our debt. I paid off two student loans and one credit card and now we have one of each to go. Then I sent a very painful bundle of money to the IRS for taxes and did so all throughout 2017 as well. I also dropped a chunk of change into an IRA account and invested in some digital currencies. Plus, I like to spend money on experiences. We go to multiple MLB games a year, see plays like “Hamilton”, travel a lot, and I’ve been to Universal Studios and Disneyland twice each since October 2016. I make a budget every month, but we aren’t exactly pinching pennies. I enjoy living and experiencing life. With that said, there have been multiple moments where I look at my total bankroll number and think “WTF?” I had a massive year for an $8/$16 player and I had less money than I started with? I’ve been working on this post for a while now and I’ve gotten healthy over the past few weeks and saw considerable growth for the first time in a while. Being able to play $15/$30 on a daily basis five minutes from home should be like giving myself a raise that is nearly double my previous cash game hourly. That’s obviously extremely helpful. With that said, I feel comfortable playing $30/$60 regularly. I want to say I felt comfortable playing $40/$80 – I didn’t have any nerves – but I also quit the game after dropping a couple racks in about an hour. That’s not giving myself a chance to overcome a poor start. I do that all the time at my normal limits. I want to end 2018 with at least a $40/$80 bankroll, even if I won’t be playing it regularly.

I mentioned we still have a little credit card debt and I have one student loan left. Even though I want to grow my bankroll, clearing unnecessary debt is and has been a bigger priority for us.

My wife and I travel once a year to visit a new MLB stadium. We’ve been doing this since 2014 when we went to Anaheim to watch watch the Angels play the Dodgers. In 2015, we went to San Francisco; 2016 we went to Denver, Colorado to watch the Rockies; and last year we went to Dodger Stadium and the Mariners spring training complex in Peoria, Arizona; I also happened to be driving into L.A. during Game 2 of the NLCS and made a spur of the moment decision to buy tickets to watch some playoff baseball and make my third visit to Dodger Stadium of the year (I did a park tour in January 2017). This year our current plan seems to be to visit New Orleans then drive to Houston for an Astros game and then drive to Arlington for a Rangers game before flying back home out of Dallas.

I would also like to go to somewhere I’ve never been for a poker trip. I played at Thunder Valley last year and some new casinos in L.A. earlier this year, but the only place I’ve played poker outside of Washington, Oregon, California, and Nevada is at Ameristar in Blackhawk, Colorado. One of the best things about my profession is that I can travel and work at the same time and seeing new places is one of my favorite things to do.

Lots of health goals. I was doing really well with meditation and yoga for a while there and I’ve fallen off the cliff since $15/$30 started getting spread every day. I’ve mentioned this before, but my balance has been struggling, and on the days that I plan to play, I want to be there as soon as the game starts and I typically don’t leave before 1 AM, which leaves very little room for production on my work days. I plan to play today and I haven’t looked at Bravo yet, so I just need to accept the fact that I need to get some things done before I go play and I might have to wait a bit to get into the game. Meditation, yoga, lifting, and jogging are all things I can incorporate back into my life when I normalize my sleep schedule and accept that I don’t need to be playing poker every waking hour of my work days.

My diet is absolute shit. I’ve never been huge on preparing my own meals, but I am at an all-time worst right now. I’ve always been skinny and gaining weight has been near impossible for me throughout my life. Well, I’m finally average weight for my height and I have some actual flab going on. I’m sort of happy about that, but I’m not happy about how I got there. I eat at the casino probably 10+ times a week and I eat fast food now more than I ever have because I feel I don’t have time for anything else. I used to have a goal of making one meal a week, but that’s fallen off to like once a month, if that. It’s all quite pathetic and I’d like to focus on eating better and healthier, starting with making my own meals more often. I also would like to make water my drink of choice. I do pretty good about that when I’m playing poker, but I tend to gravitate towards diet soda when I’m at home.

I have some goals for my diabetes as well. I think I do a decent job overall with my blood sugar, but I can definitely manage it better and I’m certainly not helping myself with a lot of my meal choices. My numbers still trend higher than they should and I want to work on lowering them. Exercising regularly and eating healthier will go hand in hand with that.

Less distractions. I just want to use my time more efficiently. My days can start off really poorly. I might spend the first two hours drinking coffee and doing pointless stuff online and before I started live blogging my sessions (which I think is productive), I would spend my time out of hands doing stupid stuff on my phone and not paying attention. I am a pillar of strength at the poker table, but when I play online, that chat box gets me sometimes. It’s so much easier to tell someone what you think or respond to their stupid comments when you’re sitting at home behind your computer screen. I admit I can be a bit toxic in that regard and I need to work on channeling my live table presence into the online arena. I also have a tendency to get into stupid and pointless arguments and debates on Facebook, online forums, and the like. I suppose I enjoy debating and witty banter, but it’s a bad use of time that I could spend doing something else way more productive and healthier.

I plan to keep blogging about my poker experiences. It’s amazing how much my audience has grown since I decided to start posting regular poker content. I appreciate everyone that has been reading and rooting me on!

Finally, some study goals. By goodness, I’m going to read through both of Jared Tendler’s books and do all the damn work he asks me to do. My rough stretch through January and into February proved that I still have a lot of work to do on my mental game. I also want to study and play mix games more often, keep watching poker vlogs, and continue reading about meditation and mindfulness – and making the time to do all that.

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Super-Sized Sunday: $30/$60 @ Palace – 2/18/2018 (LIVE BLOG)

February 18, 2018

I went to the UW-Colorado game with Radio Mike last night and it was over early enough that playing poker seemed like a reasonable idea. We stopped in Palace and there were two full $15/$30 games going. One of them looked really good and one of them looked really bad. By the time I got in the game, around 9 PM, The Leak (aka my wife) had migrated to the good game and I was in the bad one.

Also in the good game was Palace royalty, The Queen, an elderly woman that has been a staple in the Palace $8/$16 game for at least the past decade and possibly the past two decades. She plays hours that make me look lazy. She’s over 80 and logs 200+ hours every month like clockwork. Anyways, before I started working at Palace, I played tough poker against The Queen and while she would get annoyed with me at times, she seemed to respect it because I was a nice guy. But when I started working at Palace, I formed an unspoken agreement with The Queen to never bet each other heads up. I can’t remember the origins of how or why I thought this would be a good idea. It was illogical. I played way too much poker for it to be worthwhile to sacrifice my potential earn on the table (and the integrity of the game) for whatever I would be making from her in tips off the table. But it was just one of those things where it was understood that if you work at Palace, you don’t bet against The Queen when you are heads up. So I spent the year I worked at Palace and the past 16 months avoiding games that The Queen was in. Her presence in my game changed the way I played too much. How much sense does it make to open wide from the cutoff or button if she’s one of the blinds and I frequently find myself heads up with a marginal hand against a player I don’t bet against? Or maybe I just call with a hand that I would always raise with because she’s the player that lead out and I want money to keep going in the pot? It was bad for me and it was bad for poker.

Somehow it managed not to be a big deal. The Queen would always play in the main $8/$16 game and I would always play in the feeder games, so this conflict would rarely come up. For years, the feeder games at Palace have always been significantly better than the main game. It was an arrangement I could live with.

When $15/$30 started getting spread, I thought The Queen would stay at $8/$16, but she seems to be fancying herself a $15/$30 player now and I just refuse to check a hand down with anyone at that limit. So I’m going to pull her aside and tell her our contract has expired… in respectful terms. Hopefully she understands and if not, oh well. But I hadn’t done that before last night, so the good $15/$30 game had a player I don’t bet against and my wife – who I do bet against, but would strongly prefer not to play at the same table as.

Meanwhile, the game I was in was about as bad as I could imagine a game being at Palace. I was looking around the table and I saw one player I would consider someone I’m aiming to play with. Everyone else was either solid or nitty. Sometimes you have to accept the situation and grind it out, but I was sitting there, starting a session at 9 PM, sitting in a crappy game, with no intentions of moving to the good game, and plans to play $30/$60 at 11 AM the next day, and I had to ask myself: what the hell am I doing here?

So I posted in my big blind, defended Q8 against the only loose player at the table and check-called him down on Q4396 and lost to 66, folded for the rest of the orbit, and got the hell out of there.

I’m not sure when the last time $30-$60 went, but it’s been a while. Maybe a month. It’s going to go today though. There are currently 21 names on the list and while half of them could be pretenders or names that have been up there for a month now, I also know about half of them are legit and ready to play today and that means the game is 100% go.

This is a session that could completely turn my year around – or put me right back where I was. Heading into today, I’m solidly green for February now and down about $300 for the year. Time to right this ship. Hopping in the shower and heading to Palace for an 11 AM start.

11:16 AM: Kind of a rough start with The Riddler being expected to count past ten and sell chips to everyone. Amazingly 8 of the 21 names on the list are actually here to start the game and we are in action.

Starting lineup: loose Palace reg, unknown, The Sandman, bad and loose Palace reg, loose-passive Palace reg, The Joker, Dansby Swanson, and myself.

First hand I have AJss on button in a 3-way raised pot. Flop is KsQsTh and Dansby caps with me. Turn 8s and he check-calls down and I start my session off with a nice pot.

We are five hands in now and Sandman has raised or 3-bet pre in four of them.

1:05 PM: Update incoming. Playing stakes this big against some players I don’t have a ton of hours with I think it’s best for me to keep my focus on the game while I’m sitting at the table, so I’ll probably just be posing quick updates on breaks every 90 minutes.

Pretty good start. I was rocking an absurd 14/3 after about 40 hands but I have a more normal 22/10 now. I’ve lost with TT twice but I won a good pot with AA against Sandman.

I also got lucky defending my big with 96ss and getting three bets on flop and three additional big bets from AQ on a Q96T3 run out.

Then I flopped the nut flush draw in a multiway pot and got check-raised by The Joker on the flop before turning the nuts and getting three more big bets from him.

The game is great so far. It’s definitely not tight. Four of my eight opponents currently have VPIPS of 32% or higher.

1:17 PM: Yeah this game is pretty decent. Player open-limps in MP, I limp on button with T7dd, SB calls, BB checks. Flop is JJ3, everyone checks to me and I bet. Only the limper calls. Turn is a 8 or something and he check-tanks, says he has the best hand, and then folds AQcc face up.

Well played, sir.

2:17 PM: Had a gross spot where I’m the PFR with 77 and three people call me on 665cc and then I get check-raised by an unknown on 6653. Can’t really fold 77 there and I wind up paying off his 55.

I open cutoff with K7ss and button 3-bets. We are heads and flop is A43 one spade. I check-raise and he calls. Turn 9s, I bet and he folds. 💪🏻

I open 98o from cutoff and only SB calls. I bet twice on K93K and get check-raised and decide I’m calling down. River is a King, he bets and shows A3. I folded TT to this player on AAxQ a while ago and I no longer feel that great about it.

I’m currently running at 23/10, which is well below my norm, and I still think I’ve been opening too wide for how loose the game is. For instance, I open 55 and three players call and one reraises and I’m like wtf am I doing? No good ending to that hand.

Im up a few hundred currently.

2:32 PM: Worst player in the game just hit and ran it pretty decently. He is being replaced by one of the best regulars at Palace.

2:52 PM: Another bad player left and is replaced by a good Fortune regular. The quality of this game has gone down tremendously.

Meanwhile, I just ran JT into 97 on T86J8 in a blind vs blind, non-chopping situation. Pretty cool.

3:07 PM: The game is 8-handed now with no list and only a couple of key players holding it together.

I had another stupid blind vs blind hand where I raise 72dd from the small blind, bet J62d flop, double barrel the 9d turn and get raised. We both check ten river and I lose to K9.

Another stupid hand: a weak player limps under the gun, I call T9o from SB, BB checks. Flop A96ss and I check-call a bet from UTG. I think a check-raise is reasonable here, but I have seen this player limp AQ suited already. I decide to call and see what happens. We both check on 3 of spade turn. 7 of spades puts a four flush on board and I bet without looking to see if I have one. He tank-calls and I don’t have a spade. He doesn’t either but his 76cc rivered two pair.

Part of what makes Peter such a great Joker is that he often laughs after beating you in a pot. He just did this to someone else and I told him he needs to work on his “post-win laugh,” which made the table laugh because they thought I was calling him out, but what I was really suggesting is that he needs to crank it up to a true Joker-like maniacal cackle.

Speaking of The Joker, we played an epic hand that I will have to share after the session.

3:41 PM: Dear Poker Gods,

The Human Torch is on the list for $30/$60. Please let him last long enough to sit in this game and, if it’s not too much to ask, can he have at least $1500 to play with?

Thank you. 🙏🏻

3:58 PM: A higher limit player that has been really good action in my experience just sat in the game and potentially made it significantly better.

And The Torch is actually taking a seat. I predict $500 buy in.

4:12 PM: I was wrong – he bought in $530.

4:29 PM: Well I can’t afford to take a break with The Torch in the game, so I’ll try to post some hands while I’m playing.

Here are some key recent pots:

I come back from my last break and post with 92o and it’s raised and called in front of me. There are no two cards I’m folding in position for one more bet so I’m in there too. The three of us see T98dd flop and I overcall. Turn is 6d and they both check to me. I might have the best hand anyway but this is a mandatory bet. The PFR calls me and I’m forced to chop with AQss when the river comes a 7. 🤔

The Torch opens and I 3-bet KJc, he caps. Flop is Q87cc and he checks to me. I bet and he calls. Turn is a 5 and he snap-calls when I bet. River is a 6 and it pains me beyond belief, but I check it back because it’s clear to me he has no intentions of folding whatever it is he has. He wins with AK. I’m 100% convinced he’s calling river so I stand by my check.

5:35 PM: I open QhJc and get four callers. Flop is AhTh3, which seems reasonable to keep lying on, but I get raised and someone else cold-calls. Turn is heart and the cold caller leads out. Other player is all in for $50 on turn. River is a heart and I outdraw the all in’s JJ.

I have a blind vs blind battle with The Joker and with a final board of 84476, I can’t get him to lay down AT, which might sound good for me, but I had ten high.

The Torch is hanging in. After being almost all in on his second hand, he rivered a straight with T6hh drawing dead to a flush and hasn’t looked back. His $530 has turned into over $2k, mostly at the expense of one of the Fortune regs, who can’t help but berate him for his torchy play – and yes, a lot of them have been ugly but it’s not something anyone needs to be talking about at the table.

5:47 PM: Game is 5.5-handed now (one player doesn’t really count and I’m surprised he hasn’t quit yet) and entirely built around The Torch. He’s on a heater and it’s all been disgusting! And none of it at my expense. Beautiful.

Short-handed play means I won’t be updating because I’ll be involved too much.

7:10 PM: Welp. That went as expected. The Torch ran his stack up to $2500+ and cashed out when he fell back to $500ish… and we didn’t play another hand. I did throw my big blind out, as a courtesy, because the dude was still in the building, but Dansby said we might as well just quit now since we know no one is going to keep playing.

Final score: +$735

Some key pots from short-handed play:

In case you don’t know why The Torch is The Torch, let me explain: he opens, I 3-bet KK, he caps it. Flop is KQ3 with two clubs and one spade and (I believe) he check-calls. Turn is the ace of spades and he check-raises me but just calls when I 3-bet. River is 4s and he donks out. Against a reasonable player, I would give serious consideration to just calling here. Against The Torch, I just have to put another raise in. Unfortunately, he immediately 3-bets me and I’m expecting to see a queen high flush here but… it’s A9o.

Another clash with The Torch: he opens button and I defend J8. Flop is AQT, flopping me a double-gutter, which I would maybe bluff with against some players, but not this one. I might end up having to put in 3-bets against a hand as bad as T7. I call and check-call again on 6 turn. River is a king and he bets before I do anything and I get to check-raise without acting first. He snap pays it off with QT.

Ugh. I don’t want to share this hand but I do like to keep it real and, well, I played this one like absolute shit and it cost me the whole pot.I open with KQ and the button 3-bets, and it ends up going 4-ways to Q75. The button bets, The Torch check-raises, and… I call?

I CALL?!?

I don’t know what the hell my thought process was here, but this is a clear 3-bet. But I call (ugh) and so does button. Turn card is… an ace! And fast-forward to showdown where I lose to button’s naked AJ. I mean… what in the hell? That was a $600+ pot I basically gifted to the button.

Now the hand with The Joker from earlier. Sometimes you play like shit and it works out. This is one of those times and while I have my reasons for this line, I think it’s way closer to spew than a stroke of genius.

A player posts in the cutoff, The Joker raises from the lo-jack, cutoff defends and I call with 44 on the button, which is already a subpar line in a questionable spot. One of the blinds defends and the flop is AJ3 with two clubs. The Joker bets, cutoff folds, I raise, he 3-bets, and I cap.

What the hell am I doing here, you ask? Losing my mind probably but wait, hear me out.

Joker is a borderline maniac. He’s opening super wide from the LJ with dead money posted behind him (which is why my hand plays better as a 3-bet), so I’m not entirely convinced he has a big hand here and I know my range looks pretty suspect, which means his 3-bet might be suspect. Additionally, I have seen him make reasonable folds when I take very strong lines.So that’s what’s going on. It sort of makes sense but it’s incredibly ambitious. The turn is the 9c and Joker says “I don’t know what I can beat” and folds after flashing an ace and then begs me to show a bluff. I don’t. But you can read about it now, asshole!

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2017 Poker Results

February 6, 2018

Volume Goals:

-Play 1800 live hours
-Play 600 hours of 20/40 or higher
-Play 100 hours of Omaha 8 or Better

Comments: My final live hours tally was 1729.5 hours, so I came up just short of that goal. However, I did add another 1100+ hours in online play, which sounds massive, but can actually be reduced somewhat because each table I play at is accumulating time in my app tracker. So one hour while 4-tabling is actually four total hours. Still, if you include the online volume, I easily played 160+ hours a month in 2017. In addition, 85% of my live hours were in cash games and 15% were in tournaments. Online, my volume is closer to 50/50 between cash and tournaments.

I only played 239 hours of $20/$40 LHE, but I did add 74 hours of $15/$30, 98 hours of 1/3/5 PLO, 11 hours of $30/$60, and 15 hours in bigger mix games. Add all that up and that’s 437 hours in bigger games, which is still short of my goal – and this would have been much worse if Palace didn’t start spreading bigger games in the last couple of months of 2017. When it came down to it, I just preferred to commute 5 minutes to play poker rather than 30+, even if it sort of hurt our bottom line.

I played 35 hours of live Omaha 8 or Better, far below my goal – and only an additional 21 hours online. I did play 90 hours of O8 tournaments though, so I guess this goal is somewhat of a wash. On the bright side, I didn’t plan to become a Pot Limit Omaha player in 2017, so that was a fun development. I played 96 hours of live PLO and 234 hours of online PLO, plus another 111 hours in PLO tournaments. So all in all, I played 587 hours in four card games, which seems like a check mark for this goal. I imagine I will be playing even more PLO in 2018, but Global Poker currently doesn’t offer O8 games and the only live casinos with O8 are either too far away or spread it too small for me to want to play consistently. I did hear Muckleshoot brought back a $20/$40 O8 game on Saturdays, but I’m yet to play it.

Win Rate Goals:

-1.5 BB/HR @ $8/$16
-0.75 BB/HR @ $20/$40 or higher
-1 BB/HR @ Omaha 8 or Better
-50% ROI in live tournaments

Comments: I came up just short on my $8/$16 goal. After posting a win rate of 1.12 BB/HR in 2015 and 1.8 BB/HR in 2016, I thought somewhere in the middle for 2017 would be reasonable, and I was right. I didn’t quite hit 1.5 BB/HR, but I did finish at 1.41 BB/HR for 2017.

My goal for bigger games went much better. After finishing 2016 with a disappointing 0.5 BB/HR in $20/$40 LHE games, I wasn’t sure if I was really capable of putting up the numbers I’ve become accustomed to in smaller games, but I’m happy to report that I finished 2017 with a 1.19 BB/HR win rate in $20/$40 (and 1.47 BB/HR in the Fortune $20/$40) and 1.23 BB/HR in LHE games of $15/$30 or bigger.

As I mentioned earlier, my Omaha 8 or Better volume was really small for 2017, so individual sessions had a really big impact on my final results. I won $29/hour playing O8 in 2017 while posting a win rate of -0.05 BB/HR! How did this happen? I played a seven hour $30/$60 O8 session and won $1300 and that accounted for more than 100% of my profit for the year.

I didn’t set a Pot Limit Omaha goal for 2017, but since I played so much of it, I figure I should share my results. As I’ve mentioned many times on my blog, I don’t think I’m a particularly good PLO player, but the game that’s spread on Wednesdays at Palace is so incredibly soft that I’ve managed to put up some monster results. I won over $100/hour in a 1/3/5 structured game. I don’t really know how to express that as a win rate since big bet games are usually expressed as big blinds per hour and this game has a $3 big blind but it’s $5 to call. Shrug. $100/hour is pretty much all you need to know – and it’s totally unsustainable. I actually lost money in PLO cash games online, to the tune of -$12/hour in over twice as many hours as my live volume and this is why I’m pretty sure I’m not that great. In fact, I lost $14/hour in $0.25/$0.50 6-max PLO, which is 28 big blinds/hour. That’s BAD. I seem to do better in full ring games than I do in short-handed PLO. I know I have run bad in online PLO, but I also know I’m not that good. On the other hand, I did really well in online PLO tournaments. I cashed in 23 of 65 events (35%) for an ROI of 119% with six wins and three seconds in fields that typically had 50-120 players, which means I finished in the top two of nearly 14% of the PLO tournaments I played. That’s either dominant or super lucky… or both.

I once again crushed my ROI goal for live tournaments, thanks to another WSOP final table and a new career high score for my 5th place finish in the $1500 H.O.R.S.E. event.

I ended up playing 37 events with a buy in of $100+ and an average buy in of $476 and finished with an ROI of 256% which smashed my goal of 50% I set for the year. As I noted in my 2017 Goals, I guessed I would play about 3 live tournaments a month and that was a spot on estimate. All my success basically came in the WSOP where I cashed 4 of 5 tournaments and found myself in the WSOP Player of the Year running before deciding not to play any more events.

It’s worth noting that I whiffed completely in the Muckleshoot Classic series, posting an overall 0-9 effort. I still have zero final tables in that series to date and it remains a location that I am yet to have a breakout in.

I only had two notable cashes outside of the WSOP – I took 4th of 188 in my first tournament of the year back in January at the LAPC at Commerce in the $350 Omaha 8 or Better for $5600 and then I took 1st of 75 in the $125 All In Or Fold tournament at Run It Up Reno in October for $3900.

I played many, many more tournaments online. This is basically what I did on my “days off.” I played in 500 total tournaments with an average buy in of $21.50 and I cashed in 106 (21%). Despite a decent cashing percentage, I actually finished with a -8% ROI and lost $1.25/hour overall. LOL. To be fair, I did punt the majority of my bankroll on Ignition when the future of that site went into question. In July, I switched over to Global Poker and cashed in 82 of 303 tournaments (27%) with I think about ten wins, an overall ROI of 11%, and a sexy hourly of $1.56!

Training/Study Goals:

-read through MG1&2 and do all the work
-do APT weekly challenge every week
-memorize all the typical LHE drawing odds
-watch at least one WSOP FT a month
-play at least four hours of PLO and four hours of NLHE every month
-play at least ten tournaments a month

Comments: Most of my studying is in the form of playing micro stakes cash games and tournaments online. Basically my goal is to stay sharp or gain experience in no limit hold’em tournaments and pot limit Omaha cash games. With that said, I crushed the bottom two goals listed above. The rest of my study goals didn’t go nearly as well. I never finished Jared Tendler‘s books and as you can tell from some of my recent blog posts and my mind state at the end of my last LAPC trip this is an area that I could still use considerable work on. I subscribed to PokerGo and there’s tons of content on there – and I’m even watching the $25K Mixed Games Championship in the U.S. Poker Open as I type this (Go DeathDonkey!) – but most of my poker watching has been on the streams and vlogs of Lex Veldhuis, Andrew Neeme, Brad Owen, Tonkaaa, and JNandez. There is so much good poker content out there right now that it’s overwhelming at times. I also read Tommy Angelo‘s Painless Poker and while I prefer his older work, it did spark some lifestyle changes.

Top 5 $8/$16 Sessions:
1. +$1867 @ Palace
2. +$1808 @ Palace
3. +$1550 @ Palace
4. +$1530 @ Palace
5. +$1465 @ Palace

Worst 5 $8/$16 Sessions:
1. -$905 @ Palace
2. -$887 @ Palace
3. -$873 @ Palace
4. -$857 @ Palace
5. -$758 (x2) @ Palace

Top 5 non-$8/$16 Sessions:
1. +$4010 in $1/$3/$5 PLO @ Palace
2. +$3535 in $1/$3/$5 PLO @ Palace
3. +$2907 in $20/$40 LHE @ Fortune
4. +$2725 in $15/$30 LHE @ Palace
5. +$2540 in $15/$30 LHE @ Palace *$2352 Royal Flush
6. +$2348 in $30/$60 LHE @ Palace

Worst 5 non-$8/$16 Sessions:
1. -$2265 in $15/$30 LHE @ Palace
2. -$2100 in $1/$3/$5 PLO @ Palace
3. -$1442 in $20/$40 LHE @ Commerce
4. -$1242 in $20/$40 LHE @ Fortune
5. -$1191 in $20/$40 LHE @ Fortune

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LAPC Day 6: $350 Limit Hold’em @ Commerce

January 26, 2018

This tournament had the same structure as the events I played last week: 10k starting stacks, 30 minute levels. Blinds started at 50/100. Speaking of which, whenever I play flop games I always list the current level as what the small and big blinds are. In Stud formats, I list the level as the betting limits. This is worth noting since I will be playing a H.O.R.S.E. tournament next. Anyways, a nice feature of this LHE event is that all tables were 8-handed. Anyone that thinks 9-handed poker is better than 8-handed really doesn’t have a clue. Please stop griping about that open seat – it’s going to be okay!

My table started 5-handed with three unknown opponents and one guy I have played with here and at the WSOP. Through a little research I finally got a name: Adam Kipnis. He has $126k in lifetime cashes, almost all of which have come in the annual SoCal series. His biggest cash is $18k for a second place finish in a Deep Stack Extravaganza PLO8 at Venetian last June. Kudos to him. He seems to be doing well and is definitely someone I have recognized over the last few years. The rest of my table seemed pretty soft, including a middle-aged lady in a visor that open-limped 86 suited on the first hand of 5-handed play.

Notable Hands L1-L4

Blinds 100/200, I open with KK and the button 3-bets. I call to disguise my hand and trap later but when the flop comes ace high, I just check-call flop and turn before inexplicably getting a free showdown against AA on the river (one card wheel and backdoor flushes got there, but come on).

Blinds 100/200, I 3-bet a cutoff open from Adam with 66 from the small blind, he calls. Flop is 543 with two clubs (I have one) and I bet and 3-bet. It’s hard to imagine I’m doing poorly against many hands here. I barrel the 8c turn and check the 7c river, not really looking to value bet a six high one card flush. Adam checks back and shows me how “lucky” I got to outdraw his A2.

Blinds 150/300, I bust a player after we cap pre and get it in on the flop when my AK outflops his JJ.

I forgot to mention that Pheels-Bad Pete followed me out to LA and is playing this event as well. I will track his progress also.

First Break: Dark Knight 12.4K, Peter 1.8K

Notable Hands L5-L8

Peter busts his first bullet pretty quickly after the break and fires a second one.

Blinds 200/400, UTG opens, I 3-bet AA next to act, the field clears out and he calls. Flop 632 and he check-calls. Turn 8 and he check-raises now. In retrospect, this is probably a clear 3-bet. I’m really only losing to 88 and a bunch of hands that are typically not raising UTG at an 8-handed table. But I took the cautious route and called him down and he showed… AA! Wow.

Blinds 200/400, a middle position player opens and I defend J9dd. Flop is Q95 and I feel my hand plays a bit better as a check-raise than a check-call, so that’s the line I take. He calls and then calls again on K turn. River bricks and I think if I bet again I might as well be bluffing. This board is better for his range than mine so I just give up, but he checks back and… beats me with A9.

Blinds 200/400, hi-jack opens and I 3-bet QThh from the cutoff. I’ve seen this player open T7s from an earlier position so not 3-betting this hand would be criminal. The small blind and hi-jack both call. I bet flop and turn on T997 and the small blind is calling. Final board reads T9977 and he checks again. At first glance it might look like I should be betting, but what hands can he call with that I beat? All his small pairs have been counterfeit. Maybe he calls A8s? Maybe he hung around with AK or AQ? He would probably call those hands. I think he might play JJ this way and probably ATs and KTs. I can’t imagine him calling a 3-bet with too many other Tx combos. I think most of the time he calls I probably lose, so I check back and beat his JTs. And then he says “you 3-bet with queen ten suited?” The guy that calls three bets with JT suited, from the small blind, says that. I love poker players. They never cease to amaze me with their weird and faulty logic.

Blinds 300/500, I open A8ss UTG (a little frisky, but table is mostly playing tight and straightforward) and only the big blind defends. Flop is 754 one spade and it’s not surprising when I get check-raised on this board texture. My hand actually has disguised equity so I’m happy to continue here. The turn pairs the 4 and I call again. The river is a king and creates an interesting dynamic. If he checks here, I expect to never win. If he bets, I like my hand a lot more. Reason being, if he had a pair, it’s unlikely he would value bet it on this river. He would typically check-call and hope he’s good. But if he’s been bluffing, he has to bet to win, so a river bet is way less scary than a river check ironically. Of course, he could have really strong hands like trips and straights, but a river bet has a lot of bluffs too. I’m pretty happy when he bets and I snap-call and win the pot vs queen high.

Blinds 300/600, button opens, I 3-bet QJo and the big blind caps it. We both call. The big blind is all in for another 300 on AKx and we both call, check the A turn, and button folds when I bet my straight on the T river. Big blind reveals JJ and I bust that player for the second time – both times when he had JJ, something he’s telling anyone listening as he’s exiting the tournament area.

Blinds 300/600, I defend an open with K8. Flop is KT4 and I decide to encourage future betting by taking a passive check-call line. The turn pairs the T and it checks through. River is a 6 and I don’t see how I can’t bet here. I bet, he calls, and I lose to KJ.

Shirley Rosario, a 50+ white lady, joins my table wearing a Wu-Tang Clan “C.R.E.A.M. (Cash Rules Everything Around Me)” jacket and it kind of blows my mind.

Blinds 400/800, a disaster hand. I think my line and thinking here is fine, but the result is miserable. I defend a hi-jack open with KQo and then check-raise the 962 flop. This is a spot where the board hits my range better than it hits his and I will have some disguised outs if I make a real hand. He calls though and then calls again on the 8 turn. I catch a perfect river to continue my bluff when the final board reads 96285 and instead of a fold, I get raised. I’m so perplexed by this turn of events that part of me wants to call just to see and part of me is wondering if I should 3-bet. It’s not impossible for him to have hands like 77 or A7s though, so I eventually toss it in the muck.

Blinds 400/800, I open button with Q6o and a new player in the small blind 3-bets. I call. Flop is QT5 two clubs (I don’t have one), he bets, I raise, and he calls. Turn is Ac and we both check. River is 4c and we both check again. He rolls his hand and says “that’s it” and I see two red fives, so I table my hand and after a few seconds I realize he said “SET.” Awesome.

Ten minutes before registration closes, Rip Van Winkle strolls in with a fresh stack looking like he just got out of a game he sat in the evening before – standard Rip. But I don’t love that name. I thought of a better one. From now on the character formerly known as a Rip Van Winkle will be known as The Sandman. Yes, that’s better.

Second Break: Dark Knight 11.4K, Peter busted (twice)

Notable Hands L9-L10 (spoiler alert)

I go all of level 9 with a VPIP of 0%, meaning I didn’t voluntarily put money in the pot a single time for the entire 30 minute level.

My table breaks and I’m down to 5.5 bigs when I get moved to Sandman’s table. I had been playing for 5+ hours and Sandman had been playing less than 40 minutes and I joke that I’m probably going to bust before he does. Sure enough, first hand at his table I get KJ and the action folds to me, I raise and one of the blinds 3-bets and we eventually get all in. He has AJ and my sweat is over pretty quick after an AJx flop and no equity on the turn.

I busted with about 40 left. 16 ended up cashing. Another brutal tournament. I peaked around 29K and almost immediately lost half of it back.

After the tournament it as was early enough and the games looked good enough that I decided to play some $20/$40 LHE and I just got murdered. None of my premium hands were capable of winning and I found myself stuck $1300 in less than two hours. I made a couple of comebacks where I got up to -$500 and it looked like I might be able to salvage the session, but the shit storm returned and I couldn’t stomach any more brutal negative variance and called it a night at -$1135 after 5.5 hours.

That makes me 0 for 4 in LAPC events, -$2942 over my last four cash game sessions, and officially in the red for the month of January.

Who wants to be a professional poker player?

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2018 Poker Schedule (LAPC, WSOP)

December 14, 2017

Here’s a look at the series and tournaments I’ll be targeting in the first half of 2018. Any event in bold is a tournament that I will 100% be playing, barring unforeseen circumstances. Any event that has an asterisk (*) in front of it means that it has multiple starting days and I’m not really committed to any particular one. I’m not exactly planning to play the WSOP Main Event this year, but I’m not ruling it out as a possibility either. A lot depends on how things go in the first six months of the year, but I almost certainly will NOT be playing it unless I have up to 80% of my action sold.

As of now, the only trip I have booked is the first of three to Commerce, so there is still plenty up in the air. My wife said I could stay for the whole WSOP this year, but that’s kind of hard to believe. We’ll see how she feels come June – especially since her birthday is smack dab in the middle of the series. I haven’t looked for any side events during the WSOP, but I’m sure Venetian, Aria, and Golden Nugget will have some things I’m interested in adding to my schedule.

LAPC @ Commerce

January 15th – $350 Omaha 8/Better
January 16th – $350 Triple Stud
January 17th – $350 Stud 8/Better
January 18th – $350 Omaha/Stud 8/Better

January 24th – $350 Limit Hold Em
January 25th – $350 HORSE
January 26th – $350 No Limit Hold Em
January 26th – $350 TOE (O8, Stud 8, 2-7 Triple Draw)
January 27th – $350 No Limit Hold Em
January 27th – $350 No Limit Hold Em/Pot Limit Omaha
January 29th – $570 Omaha 8/Better
January 30th – $570 Stud
February 1st – $570 HORSE

February 11th – $1100 Limit Hold Em
February 12th – $1100 Omaha 8/Better
February 13th – $1100 HORSE

PacWest Classic @ Chinook Winds

February 21st – $150 Omaha 8/Better
February 21st – $80 No Limit Hold Em Bounty
February 22nd – $150 Big Omaha 8/Better
February 23rd – $200 No Limit Hold Em
February 24th – $550 No Limit Hold Em Main Event

Summer Poker Classic @ Muckleshoot

March 14th – March 18th
or
March 21st – March 25th

WSOPc @ Planet Hollywood (Vegas)

March 22nd – April 2nd

WSOPc @ Harrahs (New Orleans)

May 10th – May 21st

World Series of Poker @ The Rio

May 31st – $1500 Omaha 8/Better
June 1st – *$365 No Limit Hold Em GIANT
June 2nd – *$565 No Limit Hold Em Colossus
June 3rd – $365 No Limit Hold Em Online
June 3rd – *$365 Pot Limit Omaha GIANT
June 6th – $1500 HORSE
June 8th – $565 Pot Limit Omaha
June 9th – $1500 8-Game
June 11th – $1500 Stud 8/Better
June 14th – $1500 Stud
June 16th – *$1000 No Limit Hold Em Double Stack
June 20th – $1500 Limit Hold Em
June 22nd – $2500 Omaha/Stud 8/Better
June 23rd – *$1500 No Limit Hold Em Monster Stack
June 24th – $1500 Razz
June 30th – *$888 No Limit Hold Em Crazy 8
July 2nd – *$10,000 No Limit Hold Em Main Event
July 9th – $3000 6-Max Limit Hold Em
July 12th – $3000 HORSE

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Muckleshoot Summer Classic 2017 – Poker Blog

September 19, 2017

I always look forward to Muckleshoot’s big poker series that happens twice a year, but I have to say my results in that casino have been pretty poor. I’ve cashed the $750 Main Event three times, but I’ve never final tabled an event in this series. My plan is usually to play all the events, but if I whiff the first three events I skip the $500 tournament if I don’t have any points for Player of the Series. I just don’t think it’s very good value for a $500 buy in and I’d rather take the day off and relax before the Main Event so I’m as fresh as I can possibly be for the best tournament Washington state has to offer.

Event #1: $250 No Limit Hold Em Shootout

The first event was the $250 NL Shootout – a tournament I have never cashed. I have probably only been a regular in this series since maybe 2015, so when I say I’ve never cashed it, I’m like 0-4 or 0-5, which sucks, but isn’t too crazy considering my fair share of cashes is 10%. I could win two of my next four tries and be running way above average overall. Small samples! For those that don’t know, a Shootout format plays like a one table tournament. You start with 10 players and play down to 1 winner and there is no balancing amongst other tables. All tables play down to one winner and those winners all cash and advance to the next round, which in this case combines all 17 winners and plays out like a normal tournament the rest of the way.

I was at a very favorable table, but it’s hard to accumulate chips when your good hands don’t win. Before the first break I had lost with 99 twice, TT, and AJ. I stole the blinds with QQ in the first level. I was sitting at 6600 after starting with an 8000 stack and I hadn’t won any notable hands.

I didn’t write specific notes about this hand but I’m going to do my best to remember it because it was an important one. I believe the blinds were 100-200 with a 25 ante and I had AJ and probably made it 450 or 500 and I got one caller. The flop was 222 and I bet 500, which was probably about 40% of the pot. My opponent made it 1500. This is really weird. I have his range capped somewhere around 99, meaning I think he three bets TT+ preflop most of the time. I think he raises smaller pairs some of the time also, but I think it’s pretty clear that his hand is a small-to-medium pair the vast majority of the time here. After betting 500, I have somewhere around 7k left in my stack, so if I jam it would be 5500 more for him to call in a pot that will be about 9500. I don’t think he should be folding in that spot, which is why his flop raise doesn’t make any sense to me. When I have an overpair he just doubles me up over 90% of the time. Not only do I think raising the flop with his hand is a mistake, I also think he might be capable of folding to a jam. I gave some serious thought to stuffing it. When people make plays that don’t make much sense, they are usually capable of compounding their errors. Part of me thought he made this flop raise because he thought/hoped I had unpaired big cards, but if I go all in, I am now telling him I have a big pair and I really thought he might let it go. I wasn’t certain though and it wouldn’t surprise me if he called it off, so I didn’t pull the trigger. Instead, I flatted. There was now about 3400 in the pot and it cost me 1000 to continue. I thought if I called he was very likely to check back the turn so I figured myself for six outs twice, which makes this play borderline okay as I pick up a Jack or an Ace about 24% of the time. Obviously, in order to make this play profitable, I’m going to have to jam if a King or Queen hits as well. This gives me ~14 scare cards, one of which will appear by the river over half the time, and makes this flop peel very reasonable. Unfortunately, the board came out clean for him and he was able to table his 44 for the win. But he did check back the turn and river so I think my flop call is plenty defensible. This was a pretty frustrating hand because I realized that if I had an overpair he was just going to punt his stack to me so often and it felt like such a wasted opportunity.

That hand left me with 17 big blinds, which I 3-bet jammed over an open with AQ shortly afterwards and lost a flip to TT. Good game.

Bonus Event: $200 Limit Omaha 8 or Better

I didn’t keep any notes for this tournament and my first update on Facebook was 4.5 hours in saying I had five bigs with 22 players left and 10 of us cashing. While I can’t recall any notable hands up to this point, my ride from here was pretty wild and included an all-time great bad beat. Limit formats can create some interesting spots that don’t come up in No Limit tournaments. For instance, I was left with less than two big blinds TWICE. In NL, you just get all the chips in and if you lose you’re out; but in limit, especially in a split pot game, you don’t have to get all the chips in and you frequently get portions of the pot back. I tried to get all in on the flop in one hand, but my opponent just flatted my raise and when I picked up no additional equity on the turn, I checked back, and ended up saving my last bet instead of busting because I was “priced in.” So they had me down to less than two big blinds, not once but twice, and I managed to run that up to a 10 big blind stack when this catastrophe happened:

I opened to 12000 at 3000/6000 with A753 plus a suited ace and only the big blind defended. The flop came down a beautiful AQ2 rainbow, giving me top pair, a wheel draw, and a back door nut flush draw. My opponent check-called and then led into me when a 4 hit on the turn. What a dream spot! I had the mortal nuts. I started the hand with 45000 and after raising the turn here, I had managed to get 42,000 of it in the pot holding the nut high and the nut low. My opponent called and then disaster struck: the river was a 3. This is a terrible card because now he’s chopping the pot with me if he has A5, 25, and 45, giving him a wheel he didn’t have before. I wish that’s what he had. What he actually had was 654X, giving him a wheel AND a six high straight and 75% of the pot. I went from scooping a 90K pot to losing half my stack instead. There were 14 players left in the tournament at this point and scooping that hand would have put me second in chips. First place was $3500. Needless to say, that one hurt a little. I ended up folding my big blind and got my last 3 or 4 bigs in from the small blind and I was out of miracles and out of the tournament in 14th place.

It was 1 AM and I had been playing poker since noon with nothing to show for it and I was reeling from that brutal pot. Even though I was already bought in for the next day, I realized I absolutely did not want to come back and play at noon. I sold my seat and took the next day off.

Event #3: $300 No Limit Hold Em

I wrote some scattered notes for this tournament so I’ll do my best to piece it together. I had 20k from 12k starting after the first three levels and I was loving my table. I was controlling the action pretty well and didn’t have any massive confrontations early. Here are some notable hands from the first few levels (they may or may not take place in sequence):

I open AQ and button and big blind call. Flop is A32 all clubs and I have no club. I size a little larger than normal since I’m out of position against one player and my hand is very vulnerable. Only the big blind calls. The turn is a ten that is not a club. My opponent check-calls again. When the dealer is bringing the river I am watching my opponent and not the board so I am quite displeased when I see him reaching for chips and tossing a 3200 bet out. The river is not a club though and pairs the 3, so I am quite perplexed. His bet is pretty polarizing: he either has a flush or a full house or he’s bluffing his missed draws. I don’t know this player very well, but I would guess he’s probably not bluffing often enough here. Still, since I don’t have any great reads at this point, folding is pretty weak and I pay off his king high flush.

I completed 76 from the small blind and saw a flop of T76 in a 3-way pot. My hand is pretty vulnerable to free cards here but the pot is small, so I decide to check and the limper bets 600. I make it 1650 to go and he snap calls. The turn is an Ace and I lead 2000 and he folds, exposing a ten.

This hand takes place in level six and by this point the action at my table has slowed substantially and I’ve gone card dead, so I get frisky – hoping to exploit the current trend of tight play and my nitty image – by opening Q8hh from UTG+1 and make it 900 at 200/400 with a 50 ante. Only the big blind defends and then he leads out a hefty 1600 on the 984 flop with two spades and one heart. This is the same player that check-called twice with the nut flush earlier, so I think it’s reasonable to rule out very strong holdings from his range. I don’t love calling this bet size but considering I have a pair and a back door flush draw, as well as knowing his history of slow playing strong hands, I have to continue. The turn is a 5 and he bets 3200. The only draw that completed was 76 and I think it’s very unlikely that he will fire another bullet with 9x on the river, so my plan is to call again and probably fold the river if I don’t improve and he bombs it. The river was a 6 and now he checked it to me. I was never considering the possibility of turning my hand into a bluff, but now the opportunity was presenting itself. He had a little less than 6000 behind and there was around 12k in the middle. I obviously have a hand with plenty of showdown value, so checking back is reasonable, but what I really want to do is fold out his 9x hands. He’s never calling with his missed draws and I already ruled out his stronger holdings (sets), but I think he can fold his 9x and possibly his two pair hands here. Granted, I don’t have many 7x hands in my range (97s, 87s, 76s, A7ss, 77) and I probably wouldn’t try bluffing here against a better player, but I think he’s scared of the four card straight more than he’s thinking about my actual range and I only need this bluff to get through 33% of the time to break even, so it’s a pretty easy shove for me. He folds.

Two rounds later, I’m sitting on about a 22 big blind stack when it folds to me on the button and I look down at AJ. The small blind has me covered and the big blind has about 19 bigs to start the hand. I believe the player in the big blind is a thinking player and will realize I’m opening wide on the button and possibly try to exploit that by playing back at me with less than premium holdings. The small blind appears to be straight forward. Blinds are 400/800 and my plan is to open to 2000 and fold to a 3-bet from the small blind but get it in against the big blind. The small blind folds and the big blind does raise me, to about 7500, which is odd considering she has a reshove stack. Still, I didn’t waste time thinking about her sizing and got it in quickly and she snap-called with AK and I found myself crippled after the hand. I’ve been thinking about this one, wondering if she’s really ever 3-betting me light. I think it’s pretty standard to get it in with the AJ here, but I might be able to make exploitive folds against this player. While I’m sure she knows I’m capable of raising light on the button here, I’m not convinced she’s willing to exploit me by jamming hands like A8 or 33. I’m okay with the play, but I may be overestimating her capabilities here.

I doubled my remaining three bigs by winning with 44 vs KQ and then my 8 bigs jam with AQ lost to AK even though I turned plenty of equity with the nut flush draw and chop outs to a straight.

Event #5: $750 No Limit Hold Em Main Event

I kept some solid notes for this one and I actually felt like I played very well and had a strong read on all my opponents, but things did not go my way at all.

With the blinds at 25/50, there was a limper or two and the player to my right made it 250 to go. I had pocket tens. This is a hand that I like to flat this early in the tournament, but I do need to 3-bet it some of the time in order to keep my reraising range balanced. I think this is actually a good spot to make the raise, but in this instance I elected to call and six players ended up seeing the flop. On an 873 rainbow flop it checks to the preflop raiser who bets 500 into a 1500 pot, which is actually a pretty weak bet in this situation. With four players left to speak behind me though, I think calling and seeing what happens is best here. Five of us end up seeing the turn, which is a Jack. Now the preflop aggressor bets 1700 into a pot of 4000. I could have the best hand here and calling is probably standard, but since no one showed any real strength on the flop and because I had two tens in my hand, I decided to represent the T9 straight and made it 4100 to go. It’s really hard for anyone else to have the nuts and I thought there was some chance that my opponent would fold an overpair and if he called, I could make some decisions on the river, whether I wanted to continue the bluff or just show my hand down. While the other four players did fold, I was rather shocked when the aggressor reraised me to 9500. That is something I did not expect. Holding two blockers to the nuts, I felt pretty confident that if he did continue, it would be with a call. Instead, I ended up having to fold and he made a classy comment of “nice try.”

With the blinds still at 25/50 the cutoff opened to 250 and I defended 99 from the big blind. This is another potential 3-bet hand, but facing this raise size (which is huge), I went with a call. The flop was J43 and my opponent quickly checked behind. I lead out 350 when I turned a set and he called. The river was an 8 and I had already established my opponent as a calling station so even though it seemed like he was on the weaker side of his range, I decided to bet 1500 into 1225, as I thought he wouldn’t fold any pair and could very well call me with ace high. He did not oblige – he made it 3500 instead. This is not a fist pump and call situation. In fact, it very well might be a fold. Still, there is some chance he rivered a set of 8s and it’s not like I have so much history with this player that I can reliably start folding sets to him. So after giving it the “wow, how unlucky am I” head nod for about 10 seconds, I realized I’m never folding this hand and should stop wasting everyone’s time. Plus, the longer I wait, the more of an asshole I’m going to look like when my set of 9s are good. So I called and lost to his QT straight.

For some reason, our table was really limpy at the 75/150 level and I found myself limping along with 77 in a 5-way pot and getting the 764 with two spades flop. Everyone checked to me and I bet 500 into 750 and only one of the blinds called. The turn gave me quads and I bet 850 into 1750 and was called again. The river was a Ten and my opponent checked again. As I was thinking about my bet sizing with 3450 in the pot, I saw that she was shuffling her cards around in front of her and generally looking like she was going to fold. But this isn’t a player that I think is unaware of her body language, so I actually thought this meant she was trying to induce a bluff and was very likely to call, so I sized up at 2200 and she didn’t take very long to put the call out.

In the very next hand, I was able to limp along again with 66 and flopped another set on a very similar board, this time the 765 with two clubs. One of the limpers led out 350 into 750 and was called by another limper. I elected to make it 1450 on such a draw heavy board and both those players called. The turn was an 8 and I was pretty sad to see a 16.5k shove and a 21k shove before the action got to me. Obviously, I no longer have the best hand, but we were still in the re-entry period and it’s worth taking some time to try and figure out the math of the situation. I had around 20k behind and it was going to cost me all of it to see the river. So with 41.6K in the pot, I had to call 20K and I had ~10 outs once, or roughly 20%. So I had to put up 33% of the pot and I’m only going to get there 20% of the time. Mathematically, it’s a clear fold, especially since I still had a starting stack behind. I think if this was a smaller tournament still in the re-entry period, I would gamble with the worst of it for a chance to have a 60k stack in level 3, but I didn’t love the idea of busting out 80% of the time and paying another $750 for the stack I had sitting in front of me already. So I folded and the A9cc missed its freeroll versus the 96hh when a Jack hit the river.

My next critical hand at the 75/150 level saw someone opening from early position to 350 and I picked up AA and made it 1125. She called that raise and we saw a flop of QJ8 with two clubs and one spade. This is a poor flop for my hand – especially since both my aces were red – and it smacks her calling range pretty hard, so when she checked to me, I decided to check it back and let a card roll off. The turn was an ugly 9 of spades and she led out 1500. I’m losing to a lot of hands. The better question is, what hands would she raise/call with preflop that I’m still beating? AK, KQ, AQ? Maybe AJ suited? With two aces in my hand, I’m blocking the hands I want her to have pretty hard, plus AQ and KQ aren’t really hands it makes sense for her to bet here. At this point, it’s a pretty trivial fold, but it feels a bit bizarre to put zero chips in the pot after the flop heads up holding AA in position. I think it’s reasonable to bet the flop here, but I hate it if I get check-raised and even if she just calls there are going to be a lot of bad run outs for my hand. This is not the kind of board I want to play a big pot with. I think I get the best value out of my hand by checking back the flop and betting good turn cards when checked to or calling if she bets and then deciding on the river. She later told me she had TT and while I’m not saying that’s the gospel truth it’s certainly a hand that makes sense.

Here’s another hand I thought I botched. With the blinds at 100/200 and a 25 ante two players with wide ranges limped in from mid and late position and I made it 700 to go with K8 of clubs on the button. I think this play picks up the pot a decent portion of the time preflop and when I get called, I’m positive they fold often enough on the flop to make this play profitable – and that’s ignoring the times I actually make the best hand. They did both call, as did one of the blinds – not my dream scenario – and we ended up seeing a flop of AK2 rainbow, but with the 2 of clubs. Everyone checked to me and while this is a great hand to check behind, I think betting is perfectly reasonable. I’m not really worried about either of the limpers having an ace when they decide to call from later positions, so I frequently have the best hand and I should just bet it for value and try to win this pot right now. A check would make a lot more sense in a heads up pot, but I went with a check here. The turn card brought the 3 of spades, which opened up a spade draw and it checked to the player to my right and he bet 1000. Easy call for me and everyone else folded. The river was a ten and now he bet 2200 into what was about a 5100 pot. I actually hated this bet sizing because it screamed value. I had seen this player bluff the river and get picked off a couple of times now and I was really picking up the vibe that he had a hand this time. I even said “I don’t think you’re bluffing this time” aloud, but I was having a hard time coming up with hands that made sense because I didn’t think he had an ace and I didn’t think it made much sense to bet any other one pair hand, so his value range is super narrow – sets and straights, that’s about it. I went against my instincts and called and he showed me a hand that made perfect sense: the QJ of spades. Going back to my flop line on this hand, I’m not saying I made a mistake because of how the hand turned out, but in retrospect, I think a bet is my best play there. With about 2800 in the pot and a good flop for my range that isn’t susceptible to many draws, I would have sized small, probably 1200 at most, and the player with the QJ of spades would have almost certainly peeled the turn and I would have lost anyway… but still, I like to make the right plays, regardless of results.

At this point, I had lost with pocket aces and two sets and was having a really hard time accumulating any chips. I seemed to be losing most of the pots I played and I had ran my 20k starting stack down to 6k, so when the under the gun player made it 800 with the blinds at 150-300 and I looked down at AK in the big blind, I had a very easy reshove and she snapped with JJ and I lost the race.

I’m not going to lie, it’s pretty frustrating how I haven’t been able to have any breakthrough success at Muckleshoot. The data on my phone goes back to August of 2014 and I’ve lost more money at Muckleshoot than ANY casino and it’s one of only two casinos that I’ve played 70+ hours at during that span and have not won money overall. Granted, I don’t grind cash games there (53 hours in 3+ years) but I’ve played 30 tournaments and only cashed 4 of them (13.3%) and I have zero final tables. It’s still a pretty small sample size and I’m confident things will turn around eventually – especially if I increase my volume – but I have to say I’m tired of this stigma I have with Muckleshoot Casino!

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2017 Poker Goals

January 8, 2017

Volume Goals:

-Play 1800 live hours
-Play 600 hours of 20/40 or higher
-Play 100 hours of Omaha 8 or Better

Comments: 1800 hours comes out to 150 hours a month which is actually less than full time volume, so I will likely beat this goal by a few hundred, but I undershot it because things happen and I don’t know how much I will be playing online. 600 hours of 20/40 could be tougher. That comes out to 50 hours a month, which means I’d have to play at least 5-6 sessions a month – far more volume than I’m currently doing. It’s all a matter of forcing myself to make the long drive to play in a game that is typically worse than the one that’s five minutes from my house. But it’s hard to get better if you don’t challenge yourself, so that I must do. Omaha is also at least 45 minutes away, but between random $15/$30 sessions at Fortune, some trips to Clearwater when I have dental/medical appointments in Kitsap, and cash games while I’m in Vegas, 100 hours seems doable.

Win Rate Goals:

-1.5 BB/HR @ $8/$16
-0.75 BB/HR @ $20/$40 or higher
-1 BB/HR @ Omaha 8 or Better
-50% ROI in live tournaments

Comments: After posting 1.12 BB/HR in 2015 and 1.8 BB/HR in 2016, I’ll shoot for somewhere in the middle in 2017. I was hoping I could do better than 1 BB/HR in the bigger games, but popular opinion seems to be that 0.5 to 0.8 BB/HR is more reasonable. I have consistently bested the higher end of what experts say you can win in low stakes limit hold em, so maybe I can continue to do that at the higher stakes, but I’m not going to count on it – I’m still feeling the games out right now and paying for my education. My Omaha 8/B cash game results have been pretty disappointing to me the last few years, but I just find it hard to swallow that I can’t win a big bet an hour in them. I think most of the games I play in are pretty soft and you should be able to win long term simply playing an ABC style. I obviously can’t expect to run at 400%+ ROI every year, but I do think cashing for twice as much as I buy in for is a decent goal. I played $15k worth of tournaments last year, so that number should increase by at least 25% which means I’d have to cash for at least $40k in 2017 to meet this goal and that is actually pretty lofty.

Training/Study Goals:

-read through MG1&2 and do all the work
-do APT weekly challenge every week
-memorize all the typical LHE drawing odds
-watch at least one WSOP FT a month
-play at least four hours of PLO and four hours of NLHE every month
-play at least ten tournaments a month

Comments: I failed to read through the two books like I planned. I have already read the first three chapters of vol. 1 in 2017 so I’m off to a strong start. Just have to stick with it. I hope to be more consistent with the APT challenges this year and hopefully they add some other interesting content. As someone so proficient in LHE, it’s embarrassing to admit that I don’t know exactly what odds you need to call with 3-outs, 5-outs, and 8-outs. I’m confident I frequently make the right decisions, but there’s really no excuse for not having all this stuff memorized. I find watching the WSOP FTs to be a good source of learning – you get to watch some of the best players in the world playing all the different variants. The last two parts of this section of goal references how much volume I want to put in on Ignition on a monthly basis sharpening underdeveloped skills. It would be highly unlikely for me to play even 3 live tournaments a month.

Possible Tournament Trips:

LAPC @ Commerce (January)

    $350 Omaha 8 or Better
    $350 Triple Stud (Razz/Stud/Stud 8)
    $350 Stud 8 or Better
    $350 Omaha 8/Stud 8

WSOPc @ The Rio (February)

    $365 HORSE
    $365 Monster Stack
    $365 NLHE

WSOPc @ The Bike (March)

Run It Up Reno @ Peppermill (April)

Spring Round Up @ Wildhorse (April)

WSOP @ The Rio (June/July)

    $565 Colossus
    $1500 Millionaire Maker
    $1500 Monster Stack
    $1500 Summer Solstice
    $1500 Razz
    $1500 HORSE
    $1500 Omaha 8
    $1500 Limit Hold Em
    $3000 Limit Hold Em (6-max)
    $3000 HORSE

Comments: Those LAPC events are set in stone, though I may miss some of them if I make deep runs as they are all two days events that intersect with each other. I’m fully intending to play those three events at the Rio WSOPc, but I have yet to book any flights for it, so there’s some flake potential there. I would say I’m over 90% to be going though. The WSOPc @ The Bike is on my radar, but in all likelihood I probably won’t be going. I will attend at least one of the Run It Up Reno or Spring Round Up, but I’m undecided at the moment. I would love to get back in that $20/$40 game at the Peppermill, but the tournament series in Reno was a little underwhelming. As for the 2017 WSOP, the schedule has not been released yet, but I’m guessing these are the events I’d be interested in playing. It’s highly unlikely my wife will let me stay in Vegas for three weeks straight again – unless I absolutely murder it – so I’ll likely have to trim that list down to 5 or 6 events. In that case, I’m more focused on playing limit events over the NLHE ones, as I feel my edge is bigger in fixed structures and mixed games. I likely won’t be selling action for anything except the WSOP, but I’ll definitely be selling for that, so contact me at maccent17@gmail.com with any interest.

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2016 Poker Update – January through April

May 6, 2016

I’ve been struggling to update my blog regularly lately, so a week into May I’m somehow just now writing my first blog about my 2016 poker results.

Well, my year started off amazing… like so good, it was feeling surreal. For the first three months of the year, I was trending at $33.53 an hour in all forms of poker and was well on my way to having what could be my best year ever. By far. In fact, March 2016 was the best month of gambling I’ve had since June of 2005, when I turned a $150 deposit on Poker Room into a $25,000 bankroll. Some of you might not know how that story ended. Less than a year later, I had -$900 in my bank account, I was unemployed and homeless – I had to move back in with my parents – and I was starting to lose my battle with alcoholism. It would take half a decade before I returned to sustained success at the poker table. So even though I had an amazing run in the summer of 2005, it was merely a run of good variance that I rode all the way up to the $20/$40 level on Party Poker. Back then, I didn’t understand anything about variance or bankroll management, so it’s no surprise I eventually went broke – and I would do so again many times over the next several years. So when I think about my poker career, I really consider 2011 the start of it… and May 2016 was my best month since then.

And then April 2016 was my worst month. I posted zero wins in my first eight $8/$16 sessions and I wasn’t just posting losses, I was getting trounced. During that stretch, a -$406 session was my second best result. At my worst, I was down over 250 big bets at the $8/$16 level for the month. I managed to shave about half of that off before it was all said and done, so while things could have been worse, it still resulted in my worst month since January 2011.

Here’s a look at how my goals are shaping up:

Play 1250 hours

Through the end of April, I had played 573 hours of poker which puts me on a pace that would exceed 1700 hours of live play. That’s even more hours than I played last year and honestly, a week into May, I’m exhausted. I’m averaging over 140 hours a month of poker play – and I work 30 hours a week at my day job. That’s over 260 hours of work a month so far. Needless to say, it’s drastically decreased my quality of life away from the casino. I’ve posted very little on my blog; I’ve seen three movies in theaters this year and I still haven’t seen a number of the more important films from 2015 (The Big Short, Spotlight, The Martian, Creed); and, most importantly, I can feel the strain it’s putting on my marriage. Lastly, I just never relax and taking some time off to just do nothing is probably an underrated factor in my long term success. Certainly it would behoove me to spend more time working on my game away from the tables that I don’t learning curve doesn’t become stagnant. So, going forward, I will be taking more time off poker so I can maintain a semblance of balance in my life.

Play 150 hours of Omaha 8 or better and maintain a 1 BB/HR win rate

So far I’ve played 10 sessions of Omaha, totaling 33 hours, for a net loss of -$6 (and actually I got killed in a $10/$20 session on May 4th that I’m not including those results). Of course, these results are basically worthless, but one thing I can make note of is that my average session has been less than 4 hours each. In fact, I’ve only played one session that reached 8 hours in length. Of course, part of the issue is that five of these sessions have either been warm ups for other games or just killing time. It’s probably unlikely that I will achieve my goal of playing 150 hours of O8, especially since the game at Clearwater is a good 90 minutes away now and the game in Renton is on Mondays when I work my day job. So the majority of my O8 play will probably happen when I take poker trips to play big tournament series like the WSOP next month.

Play 100 hours of no limit cash games

Eek. Through 4 months I’ve played one NL cash game session for just over one hour and a profit of $39. With Super Sundays at Muckleshoot falling on Sundays when I work, I just haven’t made getting into NL cash games a priority. It’s pretty difficult to justify making the trip to Auburn when I am mashing an $8/$16 game ten minutes away from home.

Do the Advanced Poker Training weekly challenge every week and spend at least an hour a week playing hands on APT

I’ve done a number of the APT weekly challenges, but certainly not all of them. Maybe not even half. I did simulate a bunch of MTTs leading up to the Muckleshoot Spring Classic with settings mirrored to match those of the events I planned to play. While there are aspects of the software that I find laughable at times, a one time payment for a lifetime membership has already been justified. Still, I could spend more time on the website improving my game away from the table.

Play 3-5 WSOP events

I’m just now starting to sell action for the 2016 WSOP. I’ve already booked a flight to Vegas on May 31st to play the $565 NLHE Casino Employee Event the next day, the $565 NLHE Colossus later that week, and the $1500 H.O.R.S.E. on June 7th. My wife and I are also both playing the $1500 Omaha 8 or Better event in mid June. Finally, I am planning to play the $1500 NLHE Monster Stack the last week of June, but I have not booked a flight for that trip yet. I’m looking to sell up to 60% of my action for the $1500 events and I’ve already capped my sold pieces at 30% for the smaller events. Let’s get it!

Cash a WSOP event

I actually accomplished this goal already, unexpectedly. In late February I made the trip to Vegas to play the WSOP Circuit stop at Ballys and while I didn’t cash either of the events I went to play – the $250 H.O.R.S.E. and the $330 Monster Stack – I final tabled a $330 NLHE event that I only decided to play last minute. I came back on the second day of the tournament with a short stack and I decided to take a different approach to short stack tournament poker and it paid off handsomely. Rather than getting my chips in the middle every time I had a +EV push, I passed up on some marginally profitable jamming situations with the intentions of hanging around and laddering up. I’m not going to debate the merits of this approach here, but so far I am happy with the results it has produced. I ended up final tabling with quite a few notable WSOPc grinders, including current Card Player 2016 Player Of The Year front-runner Ari Engel. I eventually found a super sexy spot where I was able to jam 17 bigs over an open and a flat with AK, but wound up losing the race when the flatter found a call with 77. But I managed to score my first WSOP cash, a final table no less, and binked my second $5000 score in less than five months. Still, while a WSOPc cash will show up on my WSOP resume, it will even more legitimate when I get it done at the Rio this summer. With 5 events lined up, I like my chances, especially with how well I’ve been doing in tournaments lately.

Read through Jared Tendler’s The Mental Game Of Poker vols. 1 & 2 and do ALL the work

Here’s where my poker game has suffered the most. When you’re running pure and nothing feels challenging, it’s easy to get complacent about the mental game. I’ve literally spent next to zero time working on my mental game away from the table in 2016. I was crushing it, so why bother? So when things finally got brutal in April, I was ill prepared. I said I was done for the month after multiple sessions… but then the mental game work I’ve put in the past few years kicked in and I told myself not to be a wimp and get in there and play. And I wound up cutting my losses for the month nearly in half. So while my mental game probably hasn’t progressed much this year, it’s refreshing to know that I’ve built up enough skill that I can battle through the darkest of times and that the accumulated tilt doesn’t last nearly as long as it used to. The extra time off going forward will open up more time for me to continue developing my mental muscle.

Maintain a 1.25 BB/HR win rate at the $8-$16 level

For the first three months of the year, I was running pure, trending at 1.74 BB/HR over 315 hours of play through the end of March. Looking at a graph of my results, I had very little negative variance, with my biggest valleys being about -60 big bets and my plateaus lasting maybe a week before I’d go back to crushing. As noted earlier, I finally experienced some extended negative variance in April and my win rate sat at exactly 1 BB/HR entering May 2016.

Reach a $30,000 bankroll

Here’s where things get really disappointing. Despite being on pace for what would be my best year of poker ever, my bankroll is actually less now than when the year started. There are a number of reasons why this has happened – some of which I won’t go into detail here – but it’s incredibly frustrating. Still, even with basically no forward progress, I think I will manage this goal before the year is over.

That sums up my progress towards my 2016 poker goals. It’s bittersweet. My results have been borderline fantastic – on top of my WSOPc final table, I also made multiple deep runs in the Muckleshoot Spring Classic (two cashes) and another deep run in the Spring Round Up in Pendleton, Oregon. All told, I’ve cashed 5 of 11 major events I’ve played so far this year for an ROI of 83% and I’ve been a hand or two going the other way from cashing for tens of thousands of dollars. So the results have been good, but I’ve been running myself into the ground and I haven’t put enough time into my game away from the tables as I should. So here’s to hoping for a more relaxing, but even more profitable summer in the upcoming months!

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2016 Poker Goals

January 6, 2016

My goals for 2016 aren’t fully realized just yet, but I have a pretty good idea of what I want to accomplish so I’ll go ahead and share some of them.

Play 1250 hours

Even though this number is less than the amount of volume I put in last year, I think it’s a reasonable target. It would allow for me to play three 8 hour sessions a week, which is probably my happy zone, considering I work 30 hours a week at my day job. I will probably end up crushing this goal, but I just like to have a Mendoza Line for how much poker I need to play in order to keep myself satisfied.

Play 150 hours of Omaha 8 or better and maintain a 1 BB/HR win rate

As noted in my 2015 wrap up, I am pretty disappointed in my results in Omaha games. Granted, I haven’t put in a ton of volume – probably not even enough to have meaningful results – but I know I can do better. I can feel myself doing fishy things – limping with hands I should probably be folding, calling on the flop with non-premium draws, etc. – so there’s tangible room for improvement. Part of my problem is that my limit hold em game has evolved to the point where my playing style is almost entirely exploitive and I’m hyper-aware of what’s going on. I do not have the same game feel in Omaha, and yet, I feel myself wanting to remain unpredictable when my experience level probably calls for me to simply nit it up. Even so, I can see some improvement happening. My big cash last year was in an O8 tournament, so I actually won considerable money in the variant last year (no thanks to my cash game performance), and a hand from that final table stands out: in this hand, I flopped a ten high flush and value bet it to the river; by this point, the board was paired and I had rivered a wheel, but my opponent was now raising me after calling the two previous streets. To me, it was perfectly clear that I was being raised by a wheel, so I three bet with my ten high flush confident that I was quartering my opponent. He called and tabled the wheel just as I suspected and I took 75% of a critical pot. But when I tabled my hand, there was some commentary that implied my three bet on the river may have been reckless. Perhaps that sentiment is right, in general, but in this specific spot, the flow of the hand made it rather apparent, to me, that I was quartering my opponent. This is the kind of laser awareness that I frequently have while playing hold em, but I rarely feel it when I’m playing Omaha. I’m hoping to change that in 2016. My current plan is to play two sessions a month at Clearwater Casino in their $10/$20 O8 game and I tend to gravitate to the O8 cash games whenever I have time to play in Vegas.

Play 100 hours of no limit cash games

At some point, my game simply has to evolve to the point where I am a small to medium stakes no limit cash game expert. I feel like my win rate in an $8-$16 limit game has a ceiling of somewhere around $25/hour, whereas $40+/hour should be attainable in a $3-$5 no limit game. Last year I only played 40 hours of NL cash and the biggest reasons for my reluctance to play a ton of volume are: a) $3-$5 is a pretty high starting point – I’m super conservative with my bankroll and I still feel like playing in that game is kind of like taking a shot; b) I feel like a novice at a NL cash game table; and c) in my limited experience of playing live NL cash games, I’ve experienced a tremendous amount of short term bad luck – I’ve had AA < KK twice, KK < AA twice, and the one time I had KK > AA my opponent had a short stack. In what probably amounts to less than 200 hours of live no limit play for my career, it’s absurd how many times I’ve ran Kings into Aces, or vice versa, all with bad to terrible results. I’ve had a number of other bad connections where I can remember getting felted. To sum up, I’ve experienced the feeling of being the stackee far more times than feeling of being the stacker and it has left a bad taste in my mouth when it comes to NL cash games. Still, I can’t imagine having a future as a full time poker player if I’m not a NL cash game expert, so I want to start developing that muscle this year. My current plan is to play the Muckleshoot $3-$5 game at least once a month on Fridays when it’s at its juiciest and I may try to play once a month on Wednesdays as well, although the games are probably far less attractive in the middle of the week.

Do the Advanced Poker Training weekly challenge every week and spend at least an hour a week playing hands on APT

The last thing I want to do is help my opponents improve, but anyone that reads Card Player magazine probably knows this online poker training site exists, so if you’re willing to spend the money to join up, go ahead.  My wife got me a lifetime membership to this site for Christmas and I have to say I’m super impressed with the operation. A ton of notable pros (Jonathan Little, Scott Clements, Lauren Kling, Ed Miller) are active participants and the site allows me to practice specific tournament situations with specific hands and simulate live NL cash games without having to risk any money. One of the coolest things I’ve been able to do on the site is set up a tournament that mimics the structure of an event I’m about to play and simulates the level of talent I expect to face, without having to wait in between decision points. It’s a pretty sick site and I expect it to do wonders for my tournament and NL cash games as long as I put in the work.

Play 3-5 WSOP events

I’m ready to step up my WSOP volume, starting this year. I’ve played in two WSOP events in each of the past two years and so far I’ve gone 0 for 4. This year I’m planning to play the Casino Industry event and probably the Colossus again, but I also want to expand into some $1500 events. I know for sure I want to play a $1500 H.O.R.S.E. and $1500 Razz event and I think I’d also like to play the $1500 Monster Stack NL event. The WSOP hasn’t released a full schedule yet, so while I know I’ll be in Vegas the first week of June, I don’t know how the rest of the schedule is going to pan out. Also, I’m hoping the first quarter of 2016 is extremely lucrative for me, otherwise playing in $5500+ worth of tournaments in a month isn’t very practical – unless I have substantial backing, which is certainly possible.

Cash a WSOP event

With four WSOP events under my belt and as many as five planned for 2016, I would be running below average not to find a cash in my first nine WSOP events. Certainly cashing an event would help my cause to play more events this year… and it would also help achieve my goal of netting another career high tournament score. I feel like I’m on the brink of a life-changing cash and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happens in 2016.

Read through Jared Tendler’s The Mental Game Of Poker vols. 1 & 2 and do ALL the work

I’ve read most of Vol. 1 multiple times and it has done wonders for my mental game… but I still haven’t fully absorbed the material and there is still a ton of room for improvement. I’m pretty confident that one of my biggest edges in my normal game is how tough I am mentally (bankroll is another big one). The standard swings of the game have little affect on my mental state and basically no affect on my actual play while the majority of my opponents’ games fall of a cliff after a difficult hour and sometimes after losing a single, critical pot. That doesn’t mean I’m immune to mental game issues – far from it. I saw plenty of kinks in my armor as I struggled in the final quarter of 2015. It’s one thing to read the material, but it’s an entirely different thing to actually complete all the work Tendler asks of his students and I think doing so can help me reach the next level of mental game superiority.

Maintain a 1.25 BB/HR win rate at the $8-$16 level

I finished last year with a 1.12 BB/HR win rate, which surpassed my goal of 1 BB/HR, but I spent the vast majority of 2015 hovering around 2 BB/HR, so I feel like a loftier win rate is pretty attainable. I was running at 2.1 BB/HR for 2015 as late as October before the last quarter disaster shaved an entire BB/HR off my win rate. While I think 2 BB/HR is probably unrealistic in this day and age – I experienced very few stretches of negative variance during the first three quarters of 2015 – I do think a 1.5 BB/HR rate is possible, so I’m going to shoot for somewhere in between that and my 2015 end result.

Reach a $30,000 bankroll

Considering how much money I’ve made playing poker since the start of 2011, it’s kind of absurd that I haven’t already achieved this, but when I consider that poker has been my primary source of income for a substantial portion of that time period and that my expenses have hovered around $3000/month, it makes a lot of sense. As I’ve noted in previous blogs, I’ve had difficulty building my bankroll despite the success I’ve enjoyed, but I started to see growth last year and now that my day job covers all our monthly expenses I think I could see substantial growth in 2016. In reality, this should be an easy goal to reach, but I settled on $30k because I’ve felt like that’s the magic number I’d need if I ever decided to move to Vegas and play full time. Honestly, I expect to smash this goal in 2016.

I’ll probably come up with more things I want to accomplish, but those are the goals I’ve written down so far for 2016. 2015 was quite easily the best year of my life. I spent 2011-2014 repairing the damage I had caused to my life over the previous six years while basically running in place in my poker career, grinding $4/$8 games almost exclusively, and struggling to take any serious steps forward. 2015 was an enormous step forward and I feel like it has set me up to achieve even bigger things in 2016, which I feel is destined to be, by far, my best poker year ever.