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15/30 Live Blog: It’s Almost Tournament Season

March 23, 2019

First off, I’m a little skeptical about today’s session. It’s 75 minutes before game start and there are only six names on the list and Palace has all ten tables in action. That’s a lot of players in the building not wanting to play 15/30, plus the list for bigger games is almost always at least 33% bullshit. I doubt they are going to break a full game to start a weak short-handed 15 game, but we shall see.

My priorities shifted to baseball this past week. I wrapped up an online draft via Discord in my super deep 23 keeper dynasty league last weekend before having two drafts on Sunday – one for an AL Only auction league and one for the 5 keeper dynasty league that I run.

On Tuesday, I had another draft and in this one a group of six draft four teams each for most wins and then write in one of the last six team in for our final team, giving us a total of five teams each. Then we draft four players each for most homeruns (top 2 only) and four pitchers for most wins (also top 2).

I won’t bore you with my fantasy rosters, but I will share the results of that last draft since it’s a bit easier to digest.

Here are my picks with the draft pick at which I took each in parentheses:

  • Indians (5)
  • Phillies (8)
  • Reds (17)
  • Padres (20)
  • Rangers (write in)

I’m not too thrilled about those results. I took the Indians over the Dodgers and the Phillies over the Nationals and Braves, mostly because those picks align with my win total bets. The Reds, Padres, and Rangers were all last place squads that topped out at 67 wins last year, so that’s pretty frightening. The Pads and Reds are both projected to finish around 80 wins though, so they are supposed to see big improvement. The Twins and Mets both got sniped right before I took the Reds so I basically got the first team off the board not really capable of making the playoffs. I thought the Rangers were the only team in the leftovers (Marlins, Giants, Tigers, Royals, Orioles) with enough MLB-ready talent to exceed projections but unfortunately that was a popular theory as four out of six of us took Texas with our last pick.

  • Aaron Judge (2)
  • Nelson Cruz (11)
  • Matt Olson (14)
  • Max Muncy (23)

I liked this draft. I think I’m the only person that got four guys capable of hitting 40+ and Judge is one of maybe 2-3 players that can put up insane totals in the 50+ region. Muncy hit 35 homers in less than 400 ABs last year, so I like that upside even if he’s unproven. Unfortunately, I am also the first person to get dinged with a major injury as Olson just hit the shelf until June.

  • Chris Sale (3)
  • Aaron Nola (10)
  • David Price (15)
  • Rick Porcello (22)

Uhm. Go Red Sox? I expect Boston to win a lot of games and a good portion of those games are going to be lopsided wins. In addition, all three of these Red Sox starters have long leashes – they are going to routinely pitch into the 7th inning. Wins are pretty volatile and kind of a stupid stat, but I can envision each one of these guys winning 20 games and not even having to be spectacular to do so. With that said, I expect Sale and Nola to be strong Cy Young contenders if they stay healthy.

Last Saturday I booked a +$1455 in 12 hours of 15/30, wrapping a second straight weekend of +$2000+.

Tuesday I went +$123 in 2 hours of 4/8 killing time before a draft at All Star Lanes and then I went to bed early so I could wake up in the middle of the night to watch the Mariners open the MLB season in Japan against the Athletics at 2:35 AM PST. I played 8/16 while watching the game and finished at +$450 in 6 hours.

I took Wednesday off from PLO and set my alarm to watch Ichiro Suzuki’s farewell game and Yusei Kikuchi’s MLB debut, but this time I stayed home and slipped in and out of sleep after about 7 innings before being wide awake for the extra inning finale (but not Ichiro’s exit 😢).

Thursday I played 2.5 hours of 20/40 at Fortune and lost $150 before checking out Jordan Peele’s Us in IMAX (review next week after I see it again).

Last night I played 10+ hours of 15/30 and won a whopping $145.

That puts my month at about +$4300 which is pretty cool considering I led off with a -$1700 session.

Like I said… it’s tournament season starting next week. I’ll post my upcoming schedule when I get to Palace and have some time.

4:14 PM: Welp. This is pretty dumb. The list was 9 deep when I got here but four players were call-ins (myself included) and three of them are still not here. Plus, as soon as they tried to start the game two players that were here took their names off.

That left a list of 7 with three call-ins and one person not wanting to start short-handed. A table actually broke and the other guys wanted to start 3-handed so that’s what I’m doing right now, which makes it virtually impossible to blog until we fill up a little bit.

There’s more bad news on the horizon as well. I think two of the three names up as call-ins are pretty unlikely to sit down and play short long enough for this game to fill up.

4:27 PM: Flea makes us 4-handed and he was one of the names I thought might not play, so that’s a nice start. He’s sitting down with $1000, but I’ve started a super short game with him before and he bailed after winning $800 in 20 minutes, so we’ll see what happens this time.

4:43 PM: And the other call-in I thought might not play just made us 5-handed, which is still going to make it hard to blog while I’m playing, but at least I won’t be on the button or in the blind every hand now.

This game is very reliant on Flea and the other player winning if it’s going to have real legs. I’m off to a bad start, so that’s promising. I just had QQ vs A8 and K8 and somehow the board came out 88AKA.

What.

(I check-called flop and check-folded turn)

Upcoming Tournament Schedule

  • Friday, March 29th: Muckleshoot Classic $300 No Limit Hold’em
  • Saturday, March 30th: Muck Classic $400 No Limit Hold’em
  • Sunday, March 31st: Muck Classic $200 No Limit Hold’em
  • Friday, April 5th: Muck Classic $400 No Limit Hold’em
  • Saturday, April 6th: Muck Classic $750 No Limit Hold’em Main Event
  • Monday, April 8th: Spring Round Up $220 Omaha 8 or Better
  • Tuesday, April 9th: Spring Round Up $165 H.O.R.S.E.
  • Thursday, April 11th: Spring Round Up $220 No Limit Hold’em
  • Friday, April 12th: Spring Round Up $330 No Limit Hold’em
  • Saturday, April 13th: Spring Round Up $550 No Limit Hold’em Main Event
  • Saturday, April 20th: South Sound Classic $560 No Limit Hold’em Main Event
  • That’s a lot of no limit Hold’em on the horizon (puke) and the mix game events are super small buy ins, but it should be a fun three week stretch anyway. I haven’t been to Pendleton, Oregon for the Round Up since spring of 2016, back when my biggest tournament score was still less than $6000, so it will be my first time making the trip with a sizable bankroll.

    5:25 PM: Holy shit. Super Dave – the #1 all-time Palace maniac – with a shocking Saturday night appearance, makes us 7-handed just as Flea was threatening to quit. Unfortunately, he is only sitting down with $200 and says he can play for less than an hour.

    He could literally be busted in two hands. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.

    5:32 PM: I’m not sure how many hands it was, but Super Dave is busted… and gone.

    5:34 PM: Back to 6-handed… the nut low number of players. At 5-handed we can play without the PSJ drop and just a $1 rake, but 6-handed the PSJ is $4 and rake is $2, which is a HUGE, disgusting, almost unbearable difference. I hate chopping 6-handed but with that kind of price you have to and, honestly, we shouldn’t even be playing at all, in protest.

    5:44 PM: Flea just quit, cashing out around $1500, but then a new player walked in the door and said he’d sit down if Flea sat back down… so Flea sits back down… with $1000, going south in the most in-your-face fashion I’ve ever seen. It’s pretty scummy, but I’m happy to see him sitting back down with $1000, even if it’s $500 less than he had literally five minutes ago.

    6:22 PM: I haven’t really been able to post any hands, so here’s a couple:

    Cobra opens button (back when we are 4-handed), I 3-bet J8 of hearts, which is bottom of the range stuff here and not an auto 3-bet spot for me. Part-Time calls from the big and Cobra also calls.

    Flop is T95 with two hearts and one spade. I bet and only only Part-Time calls.

    Turn pairs the ten and brings another spade. Part-Time likes to bet weak, made hands or draws when he gets checked to in spots like this, so I play this like I will an overpair some of the time and check it over to him with the intentions of raising and betting the river if he calls. He does bet and calls my raise.

    The river is an 8 and since I might have the best hand and he’s probably not folding a nine, I check it, planning to bluff catch his missed draws. He checks back and tables 86 of spades and I win the pot with a jack kicker.

    7-handed now, Flea opens mid position, I 3-bet KQo from the small blind, and he caps it.

    Flop is J53 rainbow. I check and he bets. Flea is generally wide and just because he capped pre, he doesn’t need to have a strong hand here and this board is pretty dry. I don’t like check-calling and trying to make something with king high, so I check-raise and plan to barrel off. I think it’s a reasonable line as kings, queens, tens, and nines are all good cards for me. Plus, taking the betting lead gives me a chance to win without improving.

    And that’s what happens… the board runs out ten and jack and he folds to my river bet.

    The game is full for the first time now!

    6:53 PM: I guess my only interesting hands are bluffs today. Someone limps under the gun, a posting player raises his option, and I defend Q9o.

    Flop is 653. Seems like a whiff, but this board texture favors my range and bricks theirs. Also, I saw this dude that raised his post 3-bet with KJo from the small blind and then lead into three opponents on a 765 flop, so he’s obviously over c-betting and in terrible spots. I raise and the under the gun player calls (yikes) and so does he.

    I might give up here if the turn bricks, but when it comes a 7, I have to keep telling the story and they both fold when I bet.

    First Overs pot of the day:

    One player limps, I raise 98 of hearts, Part-Time defends, and the limper calls.

    Flop is 873 and I get check-raised by PT. I call, planning to call this one down.

    Turn is a 4. I call $50.

    River is a 5. It completes 96 (plus 65 turned a straight) and gives 86 and 76 a straight also, but I think Part-Time is good enough to know that if he has something like JT or T9, he has to bluff here. I don’t think he would turn his 8s or 7s into bluffs here so maybe this is a folding spot, but I pay it off and get to look at pocket sixes.

    7:10 PM: It’s the return of FBI Guy! If you haven’t checked out my Blog Nicknames entry for him, you should. He’s already acted out of turn multiple times and he’s been playing for less than an orbit. He says to Part-Time, whose cards are plainly visible in front of him that he didn’t see his hand and Part-Time snaps back, “I thought you were a policeman. You’re supposed to see everything. You see nothing.”

    7:17 PM: A big clash: Flea opens, two call, and I defend with 54o.

    Flop is AK3 with two clubs. Flea bets, the other call, and I call closing the action and getting 11 to 1.

    The turn is a 2 and fireworks start. We check to Flea, he bets, the cutoff raises and the small blind calls $60 cold! Uhm, yes please. I 3-bet and Flea caps it! The cutoff folds! 😮. The two of us in the blinds call and I go to the river, praying to dodge clubs and board pairs.

    It’s a jack! I’m only losing to QT of clubs now. The small blind power folds like a jack ass and I bet because I don’t want the river to check behind and, well, maybe something cool will happen. He raises! I re-raise and he finally slows down with pocket aces and calls.

    Monstah pot!

    I was working on -$1k before that hand and now I’m only down a few hundred.

    Lineup Update: random old man, Part-Time, Joker, FBI Guy, random, Cobra, Flea, and one open seat.

    8:11 PM: Random opens and I 3-bet AJo and he caps.

    Flop is A86. He bets, I call.

    Turn is another ace. He bets. I’m up against a strong range here it seems, but my hand is too good to just call. I raise, he raises, I call. Sigh. Nice little cooler unless he’s spazzing.

    River brick. I call and he shows 88.

    And then doesn’t take another hand and leaves us 7-handed. FBI Guy is not one to play short-handed and Flea is on fumes, so this game is in the Danger Zone again.

    And I’m back to -$800.

    Blah.

    I don’t get how there can be two full games with a list on Friday and this game has been struggling all night on a Saturday.

    9:06 PM: We are down to 6-handed and that includes FBI Guy and Flea, so Joker and I just set an over/under of 40 minutes for the game breaking. The over is probably a good bet. It seems like every time I worry the game could break it picks up again… but we shall see.

    9:09 PM: And just like that, we pick up a player! Oh wait, it’s The Invisible Man… we are still pretty much 6-handed.

    9:39 PM: Down to 5-handed and one of them is The Invisible Man. On the bright side, we are back to $1 rake with no PSJ drop.

    First hand of 5-handed play, I lose $200 in a blind vs blind hand where I have A4 on AJ562 and Flea has J6o.

    11:08 PM: And we’re down. Flea quit. Cobra quit. Invisible Man quit. Yawn.

    I finished at -$91 and I’m happy with that since I was down almost $1k, made a comeback, and was down almost $1k again.

    I think I’ve settled into a groove of blogging about once a week. It’s hard (and kind of brutal) to write during every session I play and lately I’ve only been playing three days a week, so the opportunity hasn’t really been there anyway.

    I’ll be posting stack updates and some hand histories during the slew of tournaments coming up though, so expect a lot of content over the next three weeks starting next weekend.

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