15/30 Limit Hold’em on 7/20/2019

July 22, 2019

15/30 started full on Friday with a lineup that featured Mr. Freeze and Taz, a bunch of semi-regulars, and the kid that smashed the 15/30 and PLO for about +$5k over the last week. Ducky and FanBoy managed to lock themselves out initially. Everyone also agreed to play with Overs buttons so this was basically a 25/50 game after the flop for almost the entire night.

I got two full rounds to find a hand to start The Coast with after stealing the blinds with AA, but I ended up opening the A2 suited, bricked the flop, and was quickly out of contention.

My first real key pot came up when Mr. Freeze opened, got called by a tight player, and I defended with 22 in the big blind. The flop was 962 with two spades, Mr. Freeze bet, the tight player raised, I 3-bet it and Mr. Freeze capped. We both called. I’m not sure Mr. Freeze would play an overpair this way when I show up with a cold 3-bet, so I’m already a little bit concerned. The older tight player also has 99 and 66 in his range still.

The turn card is an offsuit 8 and I still like my hand enough that I’m leading out here, but when I get raised by Mr. Freeze again and the other player calls $100 cold, well, it’s time to put on the brakes.

The river pairs the 9. I slowed down because it seems like Freeze has a set here, so I’m not going to play my hand like it’s the best now just because I filled up. I check, he bets, the other player calls, and I hold my hand up in front of my face like, how is this hand losing right now? before shaking my head and putting in the call. Mr. Freeze says, “I missed my straight flush draw” and turns over the T7 of spades absolutely sure that he’s winning this pot. I table my full house and the other player shows that he had TT.

Pretty weird spot. I know Mr. Freeze is capable of opening with junky suited hands, so it’s not entirely shocking that he showed up with what he had here, but T7 of spades and 75 of spades are the only combo draws that turned a made hand and I wasn’t even thinking about either of those holdings being in his range. In retrospect, the nine on the river is a really good card for me… not just because it fills me up, but also because it reduces the number of combos that beat me from six to four. I’m still fine with my river line though because even when you add in the big draws (two combos), he still has me beat more often than not.

The kid on the heater opens, I 3-bet with QJ of hearts on the button, Taz calls $45 cold from the small blind and my boy caps it up. Flop is Q83 with two hearts and Speed Racer and I cap it again. The turn card pairs the 8 and it takes all my willpower, but I check it back. This guy can have a ton of hands here and I should have his range pretty well smashed, but he has capped it twice now and if I was losing, this card didn’t help me any. The only cards I hate on the river are aces and kings and two of those still make me a flush. The river is a jack, giving me top two pair and when he checks it over to me again, I know I have the best hand now, so I bet, he snap calls and then shows me pocket kings (bigger two pair) after I table my hand.

Well, I sure didn’t see that coming. Very strange line from him on the big bet streets.

Two players limp, I raise with AJo, and four of see the J72 with two diamonds flop. I bet and two players call. The turn is another jack and that card puts two flush draws on the board now. I bet and they both call again. The river is an offsuit ten and Speed Racer donks into me. Well, I’m not calling with a hand this strong against a player like this, so I raise him up and he 3-bets me. That makes me hate it a little more. He’s saying he has 98 here and he’s plenty capable of showing up with that hand on the river, even without one of the two flush draws to go with it, but when I call, all he can turn over is K7 – a hand with way too much showdown value to turn into a bluff. Wait, was it a bluff? I don’t even know. Maybe I should call him Bizarro or The Backwards Man.

I raise under the gun with QT of clubs, Taz calls next to act, Speed Racer threes on the button and we call. The flop is 422 with two clubs. Taz and I both check-call. The turn card is the 3 of diamonds. Speed Racer bets, I call, but now Taz check-raises and Speed Racer 3-bets. Ugh. This is a weird spot because I could be drawing dead, but both of these guys have plenty of history overplaying their hands on the turn.

I ended up folding, but I wasn’t sure about it. Taz capped the turn and then when the 9 of clubs hit the river, he checked it over to Speed Racer and called a bet. Speed Racer turned over 66 for… a pair of sixes (LOL)… and Taz had A2 for trips. If I stay in, my flush is good. This is actually one of the better scenarios I could be in, so it’s worth examining the math here. There’s $155 in the pot before the flop, another $75 on the flop, and since Taz rarely hits the brakes once he puts his foot on the accelerator, I think it’s reasonable to assume he will cap the turn. So including my $50 and $200 each from the other two on the turn, it’s going to cost me $150 to continue in a pot of $673. That gives me pot odds of roughly 4.5 to 1, so I need about 18% equity to continue here and against their exact two hands I only have 14.29%. Sure, I could have implied odds on the river, but when I make my hand, I’m not going to be betting out with it after the turn gets capped and I certainly won’t be check-raising. If I knew Taz wouldn’t cap it, my odds are pretty close to breakeven, but when you factor in that I could be drawing dead here a decent amount of the time, I think my fold is not only reasonable, but correct even in an almost perfect scenario. If Taz has a straight and Speed Racer has, well, what he had, then my equity jumps up to 19% and it’s slightly profitable to continue. But for that to be the case, I need one player to have a made hand that blocks none of my outs and I need the other player to be on a total punt.

Ducky opens and there are multiple callers to me, holding Q6 of clubs in the small blind. I play pretty tight from the small blind in raised pots, but when a bunch of ding dongs cold call a raise, I’m going to speculate more often, especially with reasonable suited hands. I make the call and the flop is KJ4 with two clubs. Ducky stays in the lead and three of us call. The turn card is the 8 of clubs and I go ahead and lead out since I’m in first position in a multiway pot. This works out wonderfully because Ducky calls and then Speed Racer raises. I make it three bets, Ducky tanks and calls $100 more, and Speed Racer also calls. The river is the three of clubs and I check it over to Ducky and he bets. This is basically always the naked ace of clubs, but the pot is so massive and I have the second nuts, so I put out the call, annoyed, and Ducky turns over the AT of clubs and shows everyone what a genius he is by just flatting the turn with the nuts and costing himself $100.

Ducky and I talked about this hand a bit the next day and I thought his flat of my 3-bet was pretty silly, as there is almost no scenario where he makes more money with that line. His best case scenario is an extra $50 total by waiting until the river to raise and that’s assuming that Speed Racer calls $100 cold after Ducky practically turns his hand face up and shows everyone he has the ace high flush. When you factor in action-killing clubs and board pairs, it’s pretty clear that raising the turn is always going to make more money in the long run. What we didn’t talk about, however, was how well his first flat call worked out for him. I led out on the turn, he just called with the nuts, and then two players raised after that! That’s a nice little chain of reactions. Of course, when he shows up with a 4-bet all the sudden, his hand is pretty face up there too, but the pot is too big at that point for me to fold and Speed Racer could still be drawing to something. Also, there’s some chance he could have AA with the nut flush draw and decided to gamble it up. Not likely, but it’s in the realm of possibilities.

My last key pot of the night was as the game was dwindling down and we had four straight chops. Cobra opens from middle position, I 3-bet with 97 of hearts, and Taz caps it. The three of us see a flop of Q73 with two hearts. Taz bets, Cobra folds, and I just call. I have a big draw here, but I’m out of position against someone that 4-bet preflop and if he has TT+, each bet that goes into the pot on the flop actually costs me money in the long run. The turn is the 4 of hearts and I check-raise. Taz follows that up with a 3-bet and since we’ve established his history of massively overplaying the turn, I cap it. He calls. The river is another heart. I check-call and he shows KK with a heart. Standard. This is obviously a bad result, but if the hands were reversed, we would have capped the flop and then the action would have slowed down on the turn. If I were in position with kings and he led out, I would have called. If he checked, I would have checked back. If I were out of position with kings, I would have check-called. So in both scenarios, we cap the street when I have the most equity and put in one bet when I don’t. Yes, this hand had a bad end result, but we play similar spots many times over the long run and it’s clear that I am absolutely murdering him in this situation. Keeping that in mind helps dull the sting when he spazzes out and then gets there once in a while.

I never seemed to get too much momentum going in this session. Whenever I was trending in the right direction, I would play a big pot and lose it and be close to even again. As such, I ended finished the session +$180 after 9+ hours of poker.

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